Super Bowl Passing Prop Predictions, Odds: Top Picks for Mahomes, Purdy
Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy face off in the 2024 Super Bowl as the Kansas City Chiefs meet the San Francisco 49ers, and we offer our best Super Bowl Passing props based on the NFL odds from our best Super Bowl betting sites.
In his first season as a full-time starter, Brock Purdy will be the third-youngest quarterback (24 years, 46 days) to ever start in a Super Bowl when his San Francisco 49ers face the Kansas City Chiefs in Sunday's Big Game.
He could also become just the fifth passer drafted in the seventh round or later to win a Super Bowl, joining the likes of Bart Starr, Johnny Unitas, Roger Staubach, and Brad Johnson if the 49ers - who are favored by the latest Super Bowl odds - win their first title since 1995.
Standing in his way is Patrick Mahomes, who could join Tom Brady and Joe Montana as the only quarterbacks with at least 15 playoff wins if the Chiefs come out on top. Mahomes is 2-1 in the Super Bowl, and as we broke down when ranking Mahomes' Super Bowl appearances, he's won Super Bowl MVP twice and is the current favorite by our Super Bowl MVP odds.
To accompany our Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction and other Super Bowl predictions, here are our best Super Bowl Passing props for Chiefs vs. 49ers (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Super Bowl passing props
- Patrick Mahomes first pass completion direction and yardage: Middle and 9 yards or fewer (+850 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes Over 7.5 consecutive completions (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Brock Purdy to throw a second-quarter touchdown pass (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Super Bowl passing prop predictions
Patrick Mahomes first pass completion direction and yardage: Middle and 9 yards or fewer (+850 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
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Our best sportsbooks feature a variety of props that aren't offered during a typical regular season or postseason game. Let's take advantage of the unique markets with a home run play of sorts on a prop wager exclusive to DraftKings.
DraftKings is posting nine different options for this wager, with three each for the direction of Mahomes’ first completion in all areas of the field (left/middle/right), at various distances (nine yards or fewer, 10-19 yards, 20-plus yards). Whichever play hits is going to result in a big payday for bettors, as the shortest odds are +225 and the longest are +2000.
We expect Mahomes to rely on his safety net, Travis Kelce, for his first completion, finding him over the middle for a short gain. Mahomes has completed 80.9% of his pass attempts for 1,472 yards when targeting Kelce during his postseason career, with a 17:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 139.2 passer rating, according to Next Gen Stats.
Naturally, throwing outside the numbers (left and right) comes with more options, but we're banking on Andy Reid softening up the 49ers' defense with a short completion early.
For more on the Chiefs QB, check out our Patrick Mahomes NFL player props.
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Patrick Mahomes Over 7.5 consecutive completions (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Most of our best sports betting sites are posting odds for each quarterback’s total number of completions and longest completion. But DraftKings' plus-money odds for the amount of consecutive completions each quarterback will throw are enticing.
FanDuel is putting Mahomes at -120 to finish with a higher completion percentage than Purdy (-102 odds), and it's setting the O/U for the total incompletions both teams will throw at a relatively low 22.5.
Mahomes’ 6.2 yards per attempt against the Baltimore Ravens was the second-lowest in his playoff career. But that didn't take away at all from his efficiency, as he set an AFC Championship Game record with 11 consecutive completions to start the game.
He's now completed at least 73.9% of his pass attempts in back-to-back playoff contests against stingy Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens defenses, and the veteran has posted 26-plus completions in two of his three Super Bowl appearances. The only Super Bowl when he didn't produce at least 26 completions was during the 2023 win over the Philadelphia Eagles. But Mahomes still finished with a playoff career-high 77.8% completion percentage on 8.96 air yards per attempt, his highest of all three playoff games last year.
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Brock Purdy to throw a second-quarter touchdown pass (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Chiefs' defense has allowed 32 total points (four points per game) in the second halves of the team's previous eight games. That includes 10 points in the second halves of Kansas City's three playoff games, so the 49ers need to score as early and often as possible.
San Francisco’s only two first-half touchdowns in its two playoff games came in the second quarter, with one being a 32-yard strike from Purdy to George Kittle in the Divisional Round. The 49ers have produced at least one passing touchdown during the second quarter in five of their previous eight games.
Kansas City blitzes at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL (36.3%). But we don't expect that to affect Purdy, as he ranks second in completion percentage (68.1%), first in passing yards per attempt (10.1), and first in passer rating (128.0) during 2023-24, playoffs included.
FanDuel offers slightly lower +116 odds for this wager, so the better value is at DraftKings. And with the Over on Purdy’s 1.5 passing touchdowns being juiced as high as -135 through BetMGM, we're taking advantage of the plus-money odds available that Purdy will throw a touchdown in the second quarter after working out the nerves in the first.
We discussed Purdy's outlook further with our Brock Purdy NFL player props.
Super Bowl passing prop picks made 2/6/24 at 6:19 a.m. ET.
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