NBA MVP Odds 2025: Gilgeous-Alexander Takes Control; Jokic in Second
For a while, it looked like Denver Nuggets big man Nikola Jokic was going to run away with his fourth MVP award in five seasons, and then last year's runner-up took charge.
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is sitting atop the NBA MVP odds leaderboard at our best NBA betting sites after a fantastic start to the 2025 portion of the schedule, leading his team to the top spot in the Western Conference.
Here are the NBA MVP odds as the campaign pushes into the second half.
NBA MVP odds 2025
NBA MVP odds from our best sports betting sites.
- Doncic remains a serious threat to take home the award thanks to his terrific offensive play with the Dallas Mavericks, but a recent injury could impact his candidacy if it keeps him out for a lengthy period
- Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum round out the top five as significant long-shot candidates despite putting together strong seasons
NBA MVP odds favorite 2025
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander MVP odds (-320)
As a model of consistency, Gilgeous-Alexander is on pace to average at least 30 points, with 4.8 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 1.6 steals per game for the third straight season. And after failing to bring home the league's most notable individual award in either of the previous two campaigns, betting odds are finally putting him in the driver's seat.
Gilgeous-Alexander recently overtook Jokic for the top spot on the oddsboard, and he's built enough of a lead that puts him in a strong position down the stretch.
One of the Thunder guard's advantages over Jokic is his team's success, with OKC sporting the second-best record (35-7). But more importantly, Gilgeous-Alexander's elite defense as one of the top pickpockets in the Association gives him an edge.
Jokic has won the award three times, so there's reason to believe voters will side with the new guy if the race is close. However, most of the value on his odds has vanished. A winning $10 bet will profit just $3.13.
Best odds: -320 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 76.19%
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Nikola Jokic MVP odds (+270)
The Nuggets started the season slowly, lacking depth and scoring outside three-time MVP Jokic. Fortunately for the Nuggets, their Serbian superstar went nuclear to help right the ship.
Already one of the most accomplished players in NBA history, Jokic is setting personal bests in scoring and assists while remaining efficient and showing value defensively. It's nearly unfathomable to say that someone who's already won three MVP awards is producing his best overall season yet. But here we are.
There's simply nothing Jokic can't do. He leads the Nuggets in scoring, rebounds, assists, and steals while also shooting a remarkable 56.1% from the field and 47% from beyond the arc.
However, there's undoubtedly some voter fatigue where Jokic is concerned.
If Jokic can continue his dominance and overturn the current deficit, a $10 bet would produce a $27 profit.
Best odds: +270 via Caesars | Implied probability: 27.03%
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How to bet on NBA MVP odds
Betting on NBA MVP odds is straightforward. First, pick a reputable sportsbook offering NBA MVP futures. Check the odds for various players; for instance, if Player A has +300 odds and Player B has +700, Player A is favored to win.
Place your bet by deciding how much to wager. If you bet $100 on Player A at +300 and they win, you’ll get $400 back ($100 stake + $300 profit). Keep an eye on player performances throughout the season to gauge your bet’s potential.
Now, why do odds move in future markets? It’s all about performance and perception. If a player performs exceptionally well or poorly, their odds will shift. Injuries to the player or their competitors can also significantly impact their MVP chances.
The success of the player’s team can improve their odds as well. Public betting trends play a role; if many people are betting on one player, sportsbooks might adjust the odds to balance their risk. Expert analysis and predictions can also influence how people bet, affecting the odds. Understanding these factors helps you make informed bets and potentially take advantage of favorable odds movements.
How to read NBA MVP odds
Reading NBA MVP odds involves understanding the implied probability and potential payouts associated with each player's odds of winning the MVP award. NBA MVP odds are typically presented in American odds.
These use plus and minus symbols to indicate underdogs and favorites, respectively. For instance, if a player's odds are +500, a $100 bet would result in a $500 profit if the player wins, while odds of -200 would mean that a $200 bet is required to win $100 in profit.
When reading NBA MVP odds, lower odds indicate that a player has a higher probability of winning the award, while higher odds suggest that a player is considered less likely to win. Bettors should consider factors such as a player's performance, team success, and narrative appeal when evaluating MVP odds.
It's also important to compare odds across different sportsbooks to identify the best value bets. Additionally, bettors should keep in mind that MVP odds can fluctuate throughout the season based on player performance, injuries, and other factors, so staying informed and monitoring odds changes can be crucial for making informed betting decisions.
NBA MVP opening odds
- Nikola Jokic, Nuggets: +350
- Luka Doncic, Mavericks: +370
- Joel Embiid, 76ers: +550
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder: +600
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks: +650
- Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves: +1200
- Jayson Tatum, Celtics: +1600
- Jalen Brunson, Knicks: +1600
- Stephen Curry, Warriors: +5000
- Victor Wembanyama, Spurs: +5000
- Ja Morant, Grizzlies: +5000
- Kevin Durant, Suns: +6000
NBA MVP odds history
| Year | Name | Team | Preseason odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Nikola Jokic | Denver Nuggets | +450 |
| 2022-23 | Joel Embiid | Philadelphia 76ers | +600 |
| 2021-22 | Nikola Jokic | Denver Nuggets | +1600 |
| 2020-21 | Nikola Jokic | Denver Nuggets | +2500 |
| 2019-20 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Milwaukee Bucks | +210 |
| 2018-19 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Milwaukee Bucks | +475 |
| 2017-18 | James Harden | Houston Rockets | +1100 |
NBA MVP FAQs
Who is the NBA MVP odds favorite?
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the betting favorite to win NBA MVP honors with -320 odds, which represent a 76.19% implied probability, according to our odds converter.
Who won the NBA MVP last year?
Nikola Jokic secured his third NBA MVP trophy in four seasons in 2023-24, ranking in the top 10 in points (26.4), rebounds (12.4), and assists (9.0) to run away with the award.
When will the NBA MVP be decided?
With the 2023-24 award announced on Wednesday, May 8, during the NBA playoffs, we can expect next year's award to be decided at a similar time.
What is the NBA MVP trophy called?
The NBA MVP trophy was renamed as the Michael Jordan Trophy. It's awarded annually to the NBA's most valuable player.
NBA betting odds pages
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