UFC 309 Odds & Betting Lines: Jones vs. Miocic Card and Info
It's a situation that has split the fanbase and split fighters.
Jon "Bones" Jones returns to the Octagon for the first time in 2024 for a tilt with Stipe Miocic at UFC 309 on Saturday, Nov. 16. He'll defend his heavyweight strap when the two headline the main card which gets underway at Madison Square Garden in New York at 10 p.m. ET (PPV).
This fight was originally scheduled for last November at UFC 295, but a pectoral injury forced Jones to pull out of the fight. In the meantime, Tom Aspinall was crowned the interim heavyweight champion, and whether he should have had the first crack at Jones to unify the belts has been a major sticking point.
Aspinall claims that this is "the most disputed title that you could get," but it is the title fight we are getting.
And the rest of the card is filled with bangers too, and it looks like all-systems-go (we hope) after only one fighter missed weight on Friday.
UFC 309 odds - Main Card
Here’s our breakdown of the UFC 309 odds and betting lines for Saturday's full card to help with your UFC picks (odds via our best UFC betting sites).
Jon Jones (27-1) vs. Stipe Miocic (20-4)
| Fighter | Odds (FanDuel) | Implied probality | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Jones | -650 | 86.67% | $1.54 |
| Stipe Miocic | +440 | 18.52% | $44 |
Jones is considered one of the greatest fighters of all time, maybe the greatest, depending on who you ask. He hasn't taken a loss since his lone career blemish coming via disqualification against Matt Hamill at The Ultimate Fighter in 2009, rattling off 19 straight wins.
But his legacy has been marred by legal issues, including domestic violence, a hit-and-run conviction, and a plethora of other issues.
However, he should get back in the win column against Miocic. The challenger hasn't entered the Octagon since 2021, when he suffered a second-round defeat to Francis Ngannou. However, Jorge Masvidal backed Miocic in an interview with Sportsbook Review.
Jones (237.6) came in at 11 pounds lighter than Miocic (248.6) at the official weigh-in.
Charles Oliveira (34-10) vs. Michael Chandler (23-8)
| Fighter | Odds (FanDuel) | Implied probality | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | -260 | 72.22% | $3.85 |
| Michael Chandler | +205 | 32.79% | $20.50 |
Like with Miocic, time waits for no man; at 35 years old, Oliveria may be showing signs of that. The Brazilian dropped two of his last three bouts after rattling off 11 straight wins from 2018-22, but he's still second in the lightweight division.
Perhaps fortunate for the favorite, Iron Michael Chandler is even older than he is. Chandler lost three of his last four bouts but hasn't entered the Octagon since 2022. He was lined up to face Conor McGregor in his comeback fight before the Irishman pulled out due to injury.
Bo Nickal (6-0) vs. Paul Craig (17-8-1)
| Fighter | Odds (FanDuel) | Implied probality | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nickal | -1300 | 92.86% | $0.77 |
| Paul Craig | +730 | 12.05% | $73 |
The southpaw Nickal owns the only unblemished record on the main card, and the odds are heavily in his favor to continue that run and improve to 7-0.
Nickal has five first-round finishes (three submissions, two KO/TKO) before Cody Brundage lasted until 3:38 before being submitted in the second round of their bout at UFC 300.
That might not be a good omen for Craig. The Scottish fighter has lost four of his last five bouts, including having two KO/TKO defeats and a submission defeat.
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Viviane Araujo (12-6) vs. Karine Silva (18-4)
| Fighter | Odds (FanDuel) | Implied probality | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karine Silva | -300 | 75% | $3.33 |
| Viviane Araujo | +235 | 29.85% | $23.50 |
The women's flyweight bout is one of just two women's MMA fights on the card. It marks a step up for Silva, who comes in ranked 11th in the division while Araujo is eighth.
But it's also two fighters going in vastly different directions. Silva has a win streak that extends well beyond her four bouts in the UFC, as she's rattled off nine straight. Her unanimous-decision victory over Ariane de Silva in April was the first time she needed the judges in that span, ending a run of seven submission victories.
Araujo loves the judges - or, well, maybe not. But she's trusted her outcomes to them in her last 10 fights. It's just that they've sided with her opponent in four of the last six.
Mauricio Ruffy (10-1) vs. James Llontop (14-4)
| Fighter | Odds (FanDuel) | Implied probality | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mauricio Ruffy | -950 | 90.48% | $1.05 |
| James Llontop | +590 | 14.49% | $59 |
Ruffy is a hard-hitting new face to the UFC. His first bout for the promotion, at UFC 301, was a first round KO/TKO victory over Jamie Mullarkey. And that's not a common decision method for the Brazilian: his professional career spans 11 fights, and all 11 finished by KO/TKO (including the loss).
Llontop (which would be cooler if the second "L" was an "I") is also a relative newcomer to the UFC, but his start has not gone as smoothly. Since a victory in Dana White's Contenders Series last September, he suffered two defeats: a submission loss to Chris Padilla in April, and a spilt-decision loss to Viacheslav Borshchev in August.
Regardless of how awesome his last name could have been, he was the only fighter to miss weight on Friday, clocking in at 1.2 pounds over a contracted catchweight limit of 165. It's unknown if the fight will proceed at a night weight yet.
UFC 309 odds - Prelims
Jonathan Martinez (19-5) vs. Marcus McGhee (9-1)
| Fighter | Odds (FanDuel) | Implied probality | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus McGhee | -142 | 58.68% | $7.04 |
| Jonathan Martinez | +116 | 46.30% | $11.60 |
Martinez has been in the UFC (2018) longer than McGhee has been professionally fighting (2020), but despite that experience edge, he's a slight underdog in the final fight of the prelim card.
That's perhaps because, in part, "The Maniac" McGhee is a monster. Since turning pro at 30-years-old in 2000, he's rattled off eight KO/TKO victories and one submission win, with just one loss (via submission). This is his fourth fight in the UFC, and he hasn't yet to see the third round since making the leap.
Chris Weidman (16-7) vs. Eryk Anders (16-8)
| Fighter | Odds (FanDuel) | Implied probality | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eryk Anders | -118 | 54.13% | $8.47 |
| Chris Weidman | -104 | 50.98% | $9.62 |
Weidman was once a champion, he was once one of the biggest names in the sport. Unfortunately, its no longer 2015, and it's been rough time since the calendar turned to 2016. He recorded just three wins in his last nine fights, although one of those came in March against Bruno Silva.
Truthfully, things haven't been much better for Anders. Ya Boi has only three wins in his last eight bouts, although he also enters off a victory with a unanimous-decision win over Jamie Pickett in March.
Jim Miller (37-18) vs. Damon Jackson (23-7-1)
| Fighter | Odds (FanDuel) | Implied probality | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Jackson | -184 | 64.79% | $5.43 |
| Jim Miller | +148 | 40.32% | $14.80 |
Miller has been among the promotion's most active fighters for years, taking to the Octagon at least twice every year since 2008. A-10 is 1-1 in 2024, with a submission victory over Gabriel Benitez in January, and a unanimous-decision loss to King Green in April.
Jackson is also an active fighter, although he's only been in the UFC since 2020. Like Miller, he's 1-1 in 2024, picking up a split-decision victory over Alexander Hernandez in April before suffering a unanimous-decision defeat to Chepe Mariscal in August. Early in his career he acted as a submission specialist, going 13-1 by submission across 22 fights.
That's changed since joining the UFC, where he's just 2-0 via submission, and has gone to the judges five times in 10 bouts.
David Onama (12-2) vs. Roberto Romero (8-3-1)
| Fighter | Odds (FanDuel) | Implied probality | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Onama | -950 | 90.48% | $1.05 |
| Roberto Romero | +590 | 14.49% | $59 |
Romero is set to make his UFC debut on short notice, filling in for Lucas Almeida. And rightly, he's a heavy underdog as he makes the leap from a three-year career in Combate Global.
Onama has appeared in six Fight Nights, going 4-2 along that span. He has KO/TKO (2), submission (1), and decision (1) victories, to go along with a pair of losses delivered by the judges.
UFC 309 odds - Early prelims
Marcin Tybura (25-9) vs. Jhonata Diniz (8-0)
| Fighter | Odds (FanDuel) | Implied probality | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | -148 | 59.68% | $6.76 |
| Jhonata Diniz | +120 | 45.45% | $12 |
Diniz was set to fight Derrick Lewis at UFC Edmonton on Nov. 2, but Lewis was forced to withdraw less than 24 hours before the event. Tybura stepped up to fill the void on short notice.
One of only two heavyweight fights on the card, viewers will have to wait until the main event to see two more big men go at it.
Tybura has had a rough go of late, losing two of his last three trips to the Octagon, including a submission loss to Serghei Spivac last time out in August. Tybur hasn't been past the first round in any of those bouts.
Diniz has just eight professional fights under his belt since going pro in 2022. Only his last bout, a unanimous-decision victory over Karl Williams in August, has lasted longer than 1.5 rounds.
Mickey Gall (7-6) vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (10-5)
| Fighter | Odds (FanDuel) | Implied probality | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mickey Gall | -142 | 58.68% | $7.04 |
| Ramiz Brahimaj | +116 | 46.30% | $11.60 |
Gall is almost the opposite of Jim Miller in terms of fight frequency. Despite being in the UFC since 2016, the American welterweight has taken the walk only 12 times, and it's been spotty since winning his first three bouts by submission. Since the calendar flipped to 2017 he's 3-6, including coming into this one on three straight losses.
Brahimaj has also not exactly taken the world by storm since making the jump to the UFC in 2020, going just 2-3 over five fights. He made his first appearance in two years when he suffered a unanimous-decision loss to Themba Gorimbo in May.
Bassil Hafez (9-3-1) vs. Oban Elliott (11-2)
| Fighter | Odds (FanDuel) | Implied probality | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oban Elliott | -290 | 74.36% | $3.45 |
| Bassil Hafez | +225 | 30.77% | $22.50 |
Elliott is the biggest favorite on the early prelim card, and with good reason. The Welsh Gangster is perfect since joining the UFC two fights back and has rattled off seven straight victories, including six by decision (five unanimous, one majority).
Hafez's results have been much more up and down. The Habibi is 1-1 in the UFC, including a unanimous decision victory over Mickey Gall in June. He's just 2-3 over his last five bouts overall, going to the judges four times.
Veronica Hardy (9-4-1) vs. Eduarda Moura (10-1)
| Fighter | Odds (FanDuel) | Implied probality | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Veronica Hardy | -138 | 57.98% | $7.25 |
| Eduarda Moura | +112 | 47.17% | $11.20 |
The opener is one of two women's MMA fights on the card.
Hardy is a seasoned UFC veteran, fighting with the promotion since 2016. She started out with three straight losses between 2016-2019, but has won four of five bouts (including three straight) since August 2019.
Eduarda will be competing in just her third UFC fight since making the jump from DWCS. She's 1-1 with the big dogs, recording a second-round KO/TKO victory in her debut before suffering a split-decision loss in June to Denise Gomes.
UFC 309 info
- When: Saturday, Nov. 16
- Where: Madison Square Garden (New York)
- How to watch: Early Prelims - 6 p.m. ET (Hulu/ESPN+); Prelims - 8 p.m. ET (FX/Hulu/ESPN+); Main Card - 10 p.m. ET (PPV)
How to read UFC betting odds
Understanding UFC betting odds is essential for making informed wagers. Let's break it down with examples:
- Positive odds (+): Positive odds indicate the potential profit on a $100 wager. For instance, if a fighter has odds of +250, it means that a $100 bet on that fighter would yield a profit of $250 if they win the fight. So, your total payout would be $350 ($250 profit + $100 original stake).
- Negative odds (-): Negative odds represent the amount you need to wager to win $100 in profit. For example, if a fighter has odds of -150, it means that you would need to bet $150 to win $100 in profit if that fighter wins. Your total payout would be $250 ($100 profit + $150 original stake).
Now, let's consider an actual UFC betting scenario:
- Fighter A: +200
- Fighter B: -180
For Fighter A (+200), a $100 bet would result in a $200 profit, making the total payout $300. For Fighter B (-180), you would need to wager $180 to win $100 in profit, resulting in a total payout of $280.
Understanding these odds helps you evaluate the potential payout and implied probability of each fighter winning a UFC fight. Positive odds indicate an underdog, while negative odds signify a favorite.
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