Topuria vs. Holloway Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: Topuria's Title on Line at UFC 308
The main card of UFC 308 is set to get underway at Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Arena on Saturday. The main event features Ilia Topuria defending his crown against ex-champion Max Holloway in a featherweight bout.
We have you covered with our Topuria vs. Holloway prediction as the reigning king and prohibitive favorite at our best UFC betting sites puts his strap on the line for the first time after dethroning Alexander Volkanovski by a second-round KO at UFC 298 in February.
As for the challenger, Holloway failed to regain the featherweight title when he met Volkanovski back in July 2022 but has since won three straight.
We're just on the other side of an exciting prelim slate, which includes knockouts, submissions, fight-of-the-night candidate bouts, and at least one instance of suspect judging.
Onto the main card, available on Pay-per-view.
Topuria vs. Holloway prediction & best bet
(Odds via our best UFC betting sites; UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
- Fight prediction: Holloway moneyline (+240 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Holloway by KO/TKO/DQ or decision (+250 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Topuria vs. Holloway fight analysis
While Topuria’s striking has substantially improved over a short UFC stint, his first challenger as champion may very well be his last. In his last three fights, Holloway out-dueled Arnold Allen and retired Chan Sung Jung by knockout in 2023 before scoring a buzzer-beater KO of lightweight dynamo Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 in April.
Despite having an identical reach to Holloway’s (69 inches), the defending champ’s striking habits differ from the challenger’s. Indeed, Topuria prefers to maintain a traditional boxing range, while Holloway will look to keep the center and Topuria on the end of his punches.
Yes, Topuria is a terror when he gets his man on the back foot and can starch most featherweights with a single shot, but with Holloway just six months removed from the masterclass he displayed against Gaethje, I have no doubts about the ex-champ’s durability.
Holloway the far busier bruiser
Anyone familiar with Holloway knows he’s the far busier bruiser, averaging 7.17 significant strikes per minute to Topuria’s 4.40, and that shouldn’t change come fight night.
Topuria has yet to face a man boasting Holloway’s pace, cardio, durability, and combination punching. I expect the challenger to hand him a rude comeuppance and overwhelm him with heaps of leather to reclaim the UFC featherweight crown.
Oddsmakers have shown little respect for Holloway’s decorated resume ahead of Saturday’s bill, but that’s good news for those leaning towards a W for the former champ.
With Topuria the comfortable favorite of UFC 308’s closer, compelling payouts abound for a successful coup by Holloway, and bet365 leads the pack at a tempting +240 as of early Friday morning.
Prediction: Holloway moneyline (+240 via bet365) | Implied probability: 29.4%
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Topuria vs. Holloway best bet
Holloway may not pack the jaw-melting wallop Topuria does. Still, his death-by-a-thousand-cuts attack has earned him 11 stoppages by KO/TKO in 22 UFC victories, which makes one wonder whether Topuria will withstand the challenger’s volume striking for five rounds or fold to a salvo before the final horn.
Luckily, those on the fence can cover their bases with a double-chance bet. Given his underdog status, almost every prop bet on Holloway has solid value, but not every sportsbook offers double chance lines on the matchup’s method of victory.
bet365 and DraftKings do, and the former gets the nod this week with +250 on a decision or KO/TKO for Holloway’s 23rd UFC victory.
Best bet: Holloway by KO/TKO/DQ or decision (+250 via bet365) | Implied probability: 28.6%
Topuria vs. Holloway odds
Odds via bet365 as of Friday.
| Ilia Topuria | Method of victory | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| -303 | Win outright | +240 |
| +140 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +650 |
| +300 | Win by unanimous decision | +500 |
| +8000 | Draw | +8000 |
Topuria vs. Holloway tale of the tape
| Ilia Topuria | Max Holloway | |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Age | 32 |
| 5'8" | Height | 5'11" |
| 145 | Weight | 145 |
| 69" | Reach | 69" |
Topuria vs. Holloway fight info
- When: Saturday, Oct. 26, 2 p.m. ET (main card)
- Where: Etihad Arena (Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates)
- How to watch: PPV, ESPN+
- Favorite: Topuria -303 via bet365
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