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UFC Predictions & Odds: Expert Picks for UFC Fight Night - Covington vs. Buckley

Gabe Henderson

Last Updated: December 14, 2024 2:00 PM EST • 3 min 20 sec read.

Joaquin Buckley reacts after defeating Stephen Thompson as we make our UFC Tampa: Covington vs. Buckley predictions.
Joaquin Buckley reacts after defeating Stephen Thompson. Photo by Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images.

Colby Covington called out the welterweight division for its lack of stars in the buildup to UFC Fight Night. But before getting another shot at the belt, the one they call "Chaos" must overcome Joaquin Buckley.

Buckley (-238) is a sizable betting favorite over Covington (+210), according to the best sports betting sites. Our UFC predictions include a Covington vs. Buckley prediction, as well as picks for other clashes on the main card.

The UFC Fight Night event from Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla., gets underway at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+), with the main card slated to start at 10 p.m. ET (ESPN2).

UFC predictions & picks: Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley

(Odds via our best UFC betting sites; UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)

  • Joaquin Buckley to win by decision v. Colby Covington (+175 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Cub Swanson v. Billy Quarantillo to go the distance (-104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Bruno Silva ML v. Manel Kape (+310 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Vitor Petrino to win by KO/TKO/DQ v. Dustin Jacoby (+130 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

UFC Fight Night expert picks

Joaquin Buckley to win by decision vs. Colby Covington ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +175 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 36.36%

The last time we saw Covington, he looked like a shell of his former self while dropping a third fight in his last five outings. Leon Edwards outclassed him during UFC 296, and Covington fought with a passiveness fans haven't previously witnessed from him.

It's hard to imagine Covington returning to the octagon after a year with his reckless style, especially since he stepped in for Ian Machado Garry while taking this fight on short notice.

Meanwhile, Joaquin Buckley is riding a five-fight winning streak at 140 pounds as he ascends the UFC division rankings. His fight intelligence and versatility continue to improve as he gains more experience, and it's hard to see him slowing down against a rusty opponent.

Covington has been finished just twice in his career. While Buckley possesses knockout power, it's highly unlikely Covington puts himself into vulnerable positions in this contest.

Buckley is a huge favorite for a reason, and we're backing him to win by decision on Saturday. BetMGM features the most profitable odds among the best UFC betting sites (+175) for this play.

Cub Swanson vs. Billy Quarantillo to go the distance ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -104 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.98%

The bout between Cub Swanson and Billy Quarantillo is the antithesis of Covington vs. Buckley in that it features two predominant strikers. The pair combines to land around 12 significant strikes per minute at a high success rate. Quarantillo boasts more successful offensive statistics, as he lands over seven significant strikes per minute.

However, that all leads to a weaker defensive style, as Quarantillo absorbs 5.57 strikes per minute. That's perhaps the most glaring difference between the competitors in a fight featuring similar styles, statistics, and records.

This matchup is so difficult to predict because both fighters are 3-3 in their last six, with results alternating each outing. As such, we'll look to FanDuel to give us the best odds (-104) on the fight to go the distance.

Both fighters have lasted the full distance twice during the aforementioned stretch. Juiced odds on the market seem to indicate they'll do it here, too.

Bruno Silva ML vs. Manel Kape ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +310 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 24.39%

Manel Kape has produced a 4-3 record since debuting in the UFC during 2021. All of his losses have come at the hands of elite competitors.

While he's been dominant during his wins, there's little to suggest Kape should be this large of a favorite against a fighter riding a four-fight winning streak.

Meanwhile, Bruno Silva has tallied four straight finishes, and he brings an elite grappling ability to the table. Kape's only been finished twice via submission in his career, but if Silva can take this fight to the ground with his 2.26 takedowns per 15 minutes, he'll give himself a chance to stun the favorite.

The Brazilian is worth a flier at the +310 odds DraftKings is offering.

Vitor Petrino to win by KO/TKO/DQ vs. Dustin Jacoby ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +130 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 43.48%

Vitor Petrino has accumulated an 11-1 record during his professional career, with his only loss coming last time out to Anthony Smith at UFC 301. He'll get an excellent chance to rebound against a fighter in Dustin Jacoby who has lost four of his last five bouts.

Seven of Petrino's 11 professional wins have come via knockout. He's only registered one since making the jump to the UFC, but Jacoby is absorbing over four significant strikes per minute. Petrino owns the knockout power to end the bout at any moment if he connects.

UFC expert picks made Friday at 6:30 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Gabe Henderson
Gabe Henderson is a sports betting writer from Houston, Texas. He graduated from Louisiana State University in 2022 with a bachelor's degree in Mass Communication. Gabe developed an interest in sports betting while in college due to its legalization in Louisiana. He turned his passion into a career shortly after, joining The Advocate/NOLA.com as a Sports Betting Content Coordinator, where he spent two years. Gabe wore many hats before graduating as he led FanSided's coverage of Chelsea FC as a Site Expert with "The Pride of London." He was also the Editor-in-Chief of the LSU Gumbo Yearbook for two years. Gabe became a part of the SportsbookReview.com team in late 2024. He brings with him an extensive knowledge of many sports, including — but not limited to — NFL, NCAA, MLB, NBA, soccer, and UFC. Sports betting has not yet been legalized in Gabe's home state of Texas, so he frequently takes trips to Louisiana when he has the itch to place futures. Outside of work, Gabe considers himself an old head as he used an AOL email account until 2022 and still collects vinyl records.