UFC Predictions & Odds: Expert Picks for UFC 311 - Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano
UFC 311 is one of the more exciting pay-per-view cards in recent memory and an excellent way to kick off 2025. The main card begins at 10 p.m. ET (ESPN+ PPV) from the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, Calif.
Our UFC 311 predictions make picks for the main card's best bouts, including the headline fight between Islam Makhachev and Renato Moicano for the lightweight belt. Our UFC 311 odds and betting lines list the champ as a significant -1000 moneyline favorite as the challenger is stepping in on short notice for the injured Arman Tsarukyan.
Our best sports betting sites also believe the bantamweight belt will change hands following the co-main event between Merab Dvalishvili and Umar Nurmagomedov. What are our thoughts on UFC 311?
UFC predictions & picks: Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano
(Odds via our best UFC betting sites; UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
- Islam Makhachev to win by submission v. Renato Moicano (+120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Umar Nurmagomedov to win by decision v. Merab Dvalishvili (-105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jiri Prochazka moneyline v. Jamahal Hill (+115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Reinier de Ridder moneyline v. Kevin Holland (-122 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
UFC 311 expert picks
Islam Makhachev to win by submission vs. Renato Moicano ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +120 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 45.45%
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Moicano (20-5-1) has been a force ever since moving up to the lightweight division in 2020. He's ascended the rankings quickly after racking up a 7-2 record that includes a recent TKO (doctor's stoppage) over Benoit Saint Denis at UFC Fight Night in September.
The No. 10-ranked challenger in the division was set to square off against No. 9 Beneil Dariush on the UFC 311 main card before replacing the top-rated contender, Tsarukyan, in the title bout. Unfortunately for the Brazilian, he appears to have bitten off more than he can chew.
While Moicano is a rising star, Makhachev (26-1) is the cream of the crop at lightweight. The Russian has won 14 consecutive fights, and he's rightly regarded as the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet. Makhachev boasts advantages in every aspect of the sport over his new competitor.
In addition to all of the nerves that come with stepping into a daunting fight on short notice, Moicano must also go five rounds for the first time in his UFC career. The total rounds prop is set at O/U 1.5, so similar to our best sports betting apps, we don't see the 35-year-old lasting that long.
The only real question is whether Makhachev will win via KO/TKO or submission. FanDuel gives the champ a 45.45% implied probability of retaining the belt via submission, something he's done at a 62.5% clip over his last eight fights.
Umar Nurmagomedov to win by decision vs. Merab Dvalishvili ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.22%
Dvalishvili (18-4) looks to successfully defend his bantamweight title for the first time in the co-main event at UFC 311. His victory over Sean O'Malley at UFC 306 sent shockwaves through the division. Dvalishvili overwhelmed O'Malley with his contrasting style inside The Sphere, leading to a win by unanimous decision.
Meanwhile, Nurmagomedov (18-0) seemingly booked his place in the next title challenge a month prior. The knock on the cousin of UFC legend Khabib Nurmagomedov had long been his mediocre history of opponents. However, his dominant win over Cory Sandhagen silenced even his loudest critics.
Now, Nurmagomedov finds himself as a heavy favorite to snatch the bantamweight belt from Dvalishvili.
The champion is riding an 11-fight win streak, with 10 of those going to decision. Further, three of the last four bouts involving Nurmagomedov have gone the distance. As a result, we'll side with our best sportsbooks and pick Nurmagomedov by points as he's simply a better striker and wrestler than the champion.
Jiri Prochazka moneyline vs. Jamahal Hill ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 46.51%
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The similarities between Hill (12-2) and Prochazka (30-5-1) are alarming. Both won light heavyweight titles with victories over Glover Teixeira, vacated said belts due to injuries, and lost their returns against the current champ, Alex Pereira.
Both fighters possess immense power and will look to keep this fight upright. Prochazka is the more aggressive of the two, whereas Hill is a patient and technical kickboxer. The pair has 33 combined knockouts between them, so we likely already know the method of victory, it's just a matter of who lands the crucial blow.
How do you separate the two then, especially considering they have yet to cross paths?
We'll side with the seasoned fighter, Prochazka, as he has more experience under his belt since recovering from injury. BetMGM is offering the Czechian at plus-money odds (+115), which is well worth a flier.
Reinier de Ridder moneyline vs. Kevin Holland ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -122 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 54.95%
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Fan-favorite Holland (26-12, 1 NC) and newcomer de Ridder (18-2) kick off the main card at UFC 311. The latter is appearing in just his second UFC bout, which has led to the market undervaluing his odds. Some of our best live betting sites are even listing both fighters at -113 on the moneyline, which is absurd given the circumstances.
This fight is being fought at middleweight, a place Holland has struggled since making the jump from welterweight. De Ridder has a significant size advantage here. Seeing as he averages 6.39 takedowns per 15 minutes, he shouldn't have many issues seeing this fight out if he keeps it on the ground.
We don't feel comfortable predicting the method of victory given the experience gap between the two in the UFC. As such, we'll play de Ridder's moneyline odds at DraftKings (-122).
UFC 311 expert picks
- UFC 311 odds
- UFC 311 predictions
- Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov prediction
- Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano prediction
How to watch UFC 311
- How to watch: Prelims ESPNEWS/FX/Disney+ | Main card PPV
- When: Prelims 8 p.m. ET | Main card 10 p.m.
- Where: Intuit Dome (Inglewood, Calif.)
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- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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