Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: UFC 311
Merab Dvalishvili’s first UFC bantamweight title defense is set, as he meets challenger Umar Nurmagomedov in the co-main event of Saturday’s UFC 311 at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, Calif.
The defending champ earned the crown with a unanimous decision over Sean O’Malley at UFC 306 in September, the verdict extending his win streak to an absurd 11 and improving his career slate to 18-4. Nurmagomedov, for his part, has gotten his hand raised in all six of his walks to the Octagon and 18 fights as a pro.
The undefeated challenger was last seen scoring a five-round decision over contender Cory Sandhagen this past August. He's a -250 betting favorite across our best sports betting sites.
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov prediction & best bet for UFC 311
(Odds via our best UFC betting sites; UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
- Fight prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov to win (-250 via DraftKings) vs. Dvalishvili ⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: Umar Nurmagomedov by decision (-105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov fight analysis
Prediction: Nurmagomedov to win
Had Dvalishvili kept his mouth shut about the lingering injury that made him request a later booking, he’d have my bet for a successful first title defense.
The Georgian champ revealed as much during fight week, and while many a fighter has dealt with nagging injuries en route to victory, I simply can’t bank on him to repeat the feat against an awkward striker and solid wrestler in Nurmagomedov. Not only does the challenger land over 60% of his significant strike attempts to Dvalishvili’s 42%, he also defends over 60% of the opposition’s and scores just under four takedowns per 15 minutes.
While Dvalishvili hasn’t disclosed the nature of his injuries, I expect Nurmagomedov to pad those numbers if the titleholder isn’t in championship shape. Wrestler vs. wrestler matchups often yield snoozers, and I doubt this one will be pretty, but I see it rendering Dvalishvili’s bantamweight reign a one-and-done.
That said, our best sports betting apps could have shown the defending king a little more respect, as it’s the challenger who enters Saturday’s co-main event a comfortable favorite. Indeed, FanDuel lists Nurmagomedov at -290, with DraftKings leading our top books at -250 on a straight-up win for the undefeated Nurmagomedov.
Best odds: (-250 via DraftKings) | Implied probability: 71.4%
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Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov best pick
Even when injured, Dvalishvili remains an iron-willed cardio machine, and I doubt Nurmagomedov will break his will or his conditioning once the cage door shuts.
For starters, the defending champ has fallen inside the distance only once in 22 career contests and seen the scorecards in all but one of his 11 straight wins, while Nurmagomedov has earned half his 18 pro wins on points. Additionally, as mentioned above, clashes of wrestlers often require the judges’ participation, which is all the more reason to lean toward a decision victory for the challenger.
Luckily, the lines on a 10th win on points for Nurmagomedov offer substantially better value than moneyline bets, as FanDuel leads our best sportsbooks at -105 on a decision win for the Russian challenger.
Best pick: Nurmagomedov by decision (-105 via FanDuel) | Implied probability: 51.2%
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UFC 311 expert picks
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- Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov prediction
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Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov odds
Odds via DraftKings as of Saturday.
| Merab Dvalishvili | Method of victory | Umar Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| +205 | Win outright | -250 |
| +1200 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +800 |
| +350 | Win by unanimous decision | -135 |
| +5000 | Draw | +5000 |
Nurmagomedov may have only entered the Octagon six times, but he shares a last name with an all-time great and is coming off a lopsided decision over a bantamweight beast in Sandhagen, hence his status as this matchup’s betting favorite.
Among our best live betting sites, DraftKings offers the best value on a moneyline bet for the challenger, but the lines on Dvalishvili don’t do his resume justice, so if you’d like to put some respect on his name, you’ll find the best action on an upset with DraftKings at +205.
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov tale of the tape
| Merab Dvalishvili | Umar Nurmagomedov | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 29 |
| 5’6” | Height | 5’8” |
| 134 lbs. | Weight | 135 lbs. |
| 68” | Reach | 69” |
| 18-4 | Record | 18-0 |
Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov fight info: UFC 311
- When: Saturday, Jan. 18 at 10 p.m. ET (main card)
- Where: Intuit Dome, Inglewood, Calif.
- How to watch: ESPN+, PPV
- Favorite: Umar Nurmagomedov (-250 via DraftKings)
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