Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: UFC 311
Not 48 hours from UFC 311, Islam Makhachev has a new challenger.
After original opponent Arman Tsarukyan withdrew due to injury on Friday, the UFC lightweight kingpin is now set to defend his crown against Renato Moicano to close out Saturday’s event at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, Calif. Makhachev enters his fourth title defense on a gaudy 14-fight win streak and most recently retained his strap with a late tapout of Dustin Poirier at UFC 302 in June.
The reigning lightweight champ is a heavy betting favorite as we offer our Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano prediction.
Moicano - initially slated to face Beneil Dariush on Saturday’s main card - heads to the Golden State with four straight wins and seven in nine since moving up from featherweight in 2020. The Brazilian was last seen stopping Benoit Saint-Denis this past September, the TKO bringing his UFC slate to 12-5.
Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano prediction & best bet for UFC 311
(Odds via our best UFC betting sites; UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
- Fight prediction: Islam Makhachev to win (-1000 via BetMGM) vs. Moicano ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: Islam Makhachev by submission (+105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano fight analysis
Prediction: Islam Makhachev to win ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The last time Moicano took a five-round fight on ultra-late notice, he was dominated by Rafael dos Anjos from first bell to last at UFC 272, and I expect Makhachev to treat him to a similar fate.
Much-improved and game as he is on the feet, Moicano owes much of his wins to his grappling, but asserting himself on the mat at the expense of a dominant wrestler in Makhachev is as likely as Jake Paul beating a world-class boxer.
Should he manage to keep the action upright, Moicano could certainly exploit his two-inch edge in reach and score with his crisp boxing. But with the champ averaging a solid 3.19 takedowns per 15 minutes, Saturday’s headliners will likely spend the bulk of their time on the mat, where Makhachev’s suffocating top control will dictate the action.
Besides, defending champs tend to lean on what’s tried and true in short-notice matchups, so don’t be surprised if Makhachev shoots for Moicano’s hips within seconds of the opening bell. Once the pair hit the mat, the champ should chip away at Moicano’s will and have himself a grand old time en route to a fourth successful title defense.
Given the booking’s timing, Makhachev enters Saturday’s main event an overwhelming favorite. You’ll find little value in a straight-up win for the Dagestani champ, with BetMGM offering the best betting line of -1000 as of early Saturday morning.
Best odds: -1000 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 90.9%
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Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano best pick
Best pick: Makhachev by submission
While straight moneyline bets offer little value on Makhachev and prop bets are limited due to the main event’s impromptu nature, method of victory lines are certainly worth exploring here.
Takedown-related props are also hard to come by as fight night nears, but a submission victory for Makhachev is most tempting, as he’s tapped seasoned jiu-jitsu fighters in Charles Oliveira and Thiago Moises - among others - over his lengthy win streak and boasts a dozen career submission victories.
Once Makhachev gets on top of Moicano and advances his position, he’ll open up with ground-and-pound, which will create openings to snatch a neck or a limb, even against a grappler of Moicano’s caliber. It may take a couple of rounds, but this one should end with Makhachev putting the squeeze on Moicano or cranking a limb for a 13th career tapout.
FanDuel leads the pack on the champ’s preferred method of victory at a respectable +105.
Best odds: +105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 48.8%
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UFC 311 expert picks
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- Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano prediction
Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano odds
Odds via BetMGM as of Saturday.
| Islam Makhachev | Method of victory | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| -1000 | Win outright | +625 |
| +175 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +1400 |
| +550 | Win by unanimous decision | +2000 |
| +5000 | Draw | +5000 |
BetMGM gets the nod for the action on UFC 311’s closer, at least in terms of the moneyline on the lightweight champ. If you love an underdog, the good news is, just about every line on Moicano offers a generous payout, with the action on an upset ranging from +625 (BetMGM) to +700 (DraftKings).
Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano tale of the tape
| Islam Makhachev | Renato Moicano | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 35 |
| 5’10” | Height | 5’11” |
| 154.5 lbs. | Weight | 155 lbs. |
| 70” | Reach | 72” |
| 26-1 | Record | 20-5-1 |
Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano fight info: UFC 311
- When: Saturday, Jan. 18 at 10 p.m. ET (main card)
- Where: Intuit Dome, Inglewood, Calif.
- How to watch: ESPN+, PPV
- Favorite: Islam Makhachev (-1000 via BetMGM)
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