Du Plessis vs. Strickland Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: UFC 312
Dricus du Plessis and Sean Strickland are running it back as the former puts his middleweight strap on the line in the main event of UFC 312 in Sydney, Australia, on Saturday.
The defending champ enters his second title defense not 13 months after winning the crown at Strickland’s expense with a razor-close split decision at UFC 297.
Du Plessis most recently retained his title with a fourth-round submission of ex-champ Israel Adesanya at UFC 305 in August, improving to 8-0 in the UFC with six stoppages.
Since falling to du Plessis, Strickland has rebounded with a split decision scored over Paulo Costa at UFC 302 in June. The verdict brought the challenger’s UFC slate to 16-6, putting him at 9-3 since moving up from welterweight in late 2020.
Du Plessis vs. Strickland prediction & best bet for UFC 312
(Odds via our best UFC betting sites; UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
- Fight prediction: Strickland to win (+190 via BetMGM) vs. du Plessis ⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Strickland by decision (+280 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Du Plessis vs. Strickland fight analysis
In their first meeting, Strickland worked behind an active, crisp jab but often failed to follow it with more than the straight right, which allowed du Plessis the time and space to find a home for his unorthodox striking and convince two judges to crown him middleweight king.
Luckily, the challenger won’t need to make any drastic adjustments to even the score.
A combination puncher with cardio for days, Strickland is at his best when moving forward and punching in bunches instead of keeping the fight in space. His prior success with just the jab and straight right should encourage him to open up with his mitts in Saturday’s rematch.
Landing six significant strikes per minute and defending over 60% of the opposition’s attempts, the ex-champ is a terror when putting his man on the back foot, and while doing so against du Plessis is no easy feat, I’m counting on Strickland to be the one pressing forward in the later rounds and getting the better of the leather exchanges.
The California native entered fight week a +170 underdog with DraftKings and has since gone to +180. That said, although the lines on an upset for Strickland are competitive across all our top sportsbooks, BetMGM gets the nod this week at +190.
Prediction: Strickland to win (+190 via BetMGM) | Implied probability: 34.48%
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Du Plessis vs. Strickland best bet
Not only did Strickland and du Plessis go the distance when they first met, but the former has also required the judges’ participation in seven of his last nine bouts - all but one of which were booked for five rounds.
In all seven of those contests, Strickland has landed north of 100 significant strikes, and should he and du Plessis remain upright, he’ll likely repeat the feat. As mentioned above, cardio and volume striking will always be on Strickland’s side, and provided he gets back to punching in combinations, the judges should see it his way this time.
Those banking on an upset will find great value in Strickland’s preferred method of victory. Indeed, the lines on an upset on points range from +250 to +280 as of early Saturday morning, with FanDuel leading the way.
Best bet: Strickland by decision (+280 via FanDuel) | Implied probability: 26.32%
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Du Plessis vs. Strickland odds
Odds via FanDuel as of Saturday.
| Du Plessis | Method of victory | Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| -220 | Win outright | +176 |
| +330 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +850 |
| +160 | Win by unanimous decision | +280 |
| +5000 | Draw | +5000 |
Despite how closely contested this pair’s first clash was, Du Plessis heads to Sydney a comfortable favorite, and while he rarely ever goes the distance, a win on points is his most likely method of victory, according to our best sports betting apps.
Yes, oddsmakers could have shown Strickland a tad more respect, but that only means the lines on him offer the most compelling value, whether a straight moneyline or prop.
Du Plessis vs. Strickland tale of the tape
| Du Plessis | Fighter Y | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 33 |
| 6'1" | Height | 6'1" |
| 185 lbs. | Weight | 185 lbs. |
| 76" | Reach | 76" |
| 22-2 | Record | 29-6 |
UFC 312 expert picks & predictions
- UFC 312 odds and betting lines
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- Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 prediction
Du Plessis vs. Strickland fight info: UFC 312
- When: Saturday, Feb. 8 at 10 p.m. ET (main card)
- Where: Qudos Bank Arena (Sydney, Australia)
- How to watch: Pay-per-view (main card)
- Favorite: Du Plessis (-220 via FanDuel)
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