Oliveira vs. Chandler Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: UFC 309
Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler are running it back, and we have our Oliveira vs. Chandler prediction before the cage door shuts for this lightweight rematch at UFC 309 in Madison Square Garden on Saturday.
The pair first clashed in 2021 at UFC 262, where Oliveira claimed the then-vacant divisional crown by second-round TKO. The UFC 309 odds show Oliveira as a heavy favorite, much like the main event in our UFC 309 predictions.
The Brazilian fan favorite has since been stripped of the title and failed to reclaim it opposite Islam Makhachev at UFC 280 in October 2022. He was last seen dropping a close split decision to Arman Tsarukyan at UFC 300 in April.
Chandler, by comparison, has dropped two of three since falling to Oliveira, with defeats to Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier sandwiching a KO of Tony Ferguson at UFC 274. The submission loss to Poirier marked Chandler’s most recent walk to the Octagon, and he now ends a two-year layoff with a pro record of 23-8 and a UFC slate of 2-3.
Oliveira vs. Chandler prediction & best bet for UFC 309
(Odds via our best UFC betting sites; UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
- Fight prediction: Oliveira to win (-258 via DraftKings) vs. Chandler ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Oliveira in under 1.5 rounds (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Oliveira vs. Chandler fight analysis
Not only is Chandler ending a lengthy layoff, but he’s also betrayed a knack for throwing caution to the wind throughout his UFC stint. This habit will only lead to trouble opposite a lethal grappler and more technically proficient striker in Oliveira.
The Missouri native’s numbers reflect his habits, with his significant strike accuracy and defense below 50%. Oliveira’s figures sit on the opposite side of the 50% mark, and with a three-inch reach edge, he should manage to keep the shorter Chandler on the end of his punches.
That said, Oliveira has often needed to weather some early storms before securing his conquests, so don’t be surprised if Chandler puts him in hot water during the opening frame, as in their first contest. Once he’s regained his bearings, Oliveira should make Chandler pay for his reckless ways, whether with a crisp combination to the kisser or one of his patented club-and-subs.
Our best UFC betting sites seem to think the same: Oliveira heads to New York City as the comfortable favorite. Some have even gone as far as listing the former titleholder above -260, but it’s DraftKings barely leading the way on a 35th career Oliveira win at -258.
Prediction: Oliveira to win (-258 via DraftKings) | Implied probability: 72.07%
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Oliveira vs. Chandler best bet
When Oliveira first faced Chandler, he put him away mere seconds into Round 2, and he should be in for another short night of work.
The Brazilian has scored a dozen UFC stoppages in under 1.5 rounds, while Chandler has folded to strikes in four of his eight career defeats and lost five by stoppage.
Even if Chandler opts for a wrestling-heavy attack over another slugfest, he remains tasked with a swift starter and prolific submission artist in Oliveira, meaning the only thing left to do is pick his poison.
Luckily, you’ll find plenty of compelling round and combo props for Oliveira with several of our top sportsbooks, and DraftKings gets the nod here again on the strength of its variety. Unlike the lopsided lines on a straight-up victory, you’ll find a 13th UFC win within 1.5 rounds for Oliveira at an even +100.
Best bet: Oliveira in under 1.5 rounds (+100 via DraftKings) | Implied probability: 50%
Oliveira vs. Chandler odds
Odds via DraftKings as of Saturday.
| Oliveira | Method of victory | Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| -258 | Win outright | +210 |
| +225 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +350 |
| +1800 | Win by unanimous decision | +1600 |
| +5000 | Draw | +5000 |
Given the wallop Oliveira packs in his mitts and Chandler’s waning durability, a bet on the former treating the latter to another knockout is quite tempting, with DraftKings offering an 11th KO/TKO for Oliveira at a solid +225.
Oliveira vs. Chandler tale of the tape
| Oliveira | Chandler | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Age | 38 |
| 5’10” | Height | 5’8” |
| 155.6 lbs | Weight | 155.6 lbs. |
| 74” | Reach | 71” |
| 34-10 (1 NC) | Record | 23-8 |
Oliveira vs. Chandler fight info: UFC 309
- When: Saturday, Nov. 16 at 10 p.m. ET (main card)
- Where: Madison Square Garden (New York)
- How to watch: ESPN+, PPV
- Favorite: Oliveira (-258 via DraftKings)
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