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Super Bowl First Time Winner Odds: Sportsbooks Still Favor a Repeat Champion

Dave Crowley

Last Updated: January 2, 2025 10:50 AM EST • 3 min 18 sec read.

Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (87) celebrates a play as we examine the latest Super Bowl odds entering NFL Week 9.
Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (87) celebrates a play. Photo by Junfu Han / USA Today Network via Imagn.

A dozen current NFL franchises have never won the Super Bowl, but will one of them break through and claim the title this season? According to the updated odds posted at one of the top sports betting sites wagering on a first-timer to win the Super Bowl this season still has you taking the underdog position.

On the prop wager 'Will a first-time winner win Super Bowl LIX' at FanDuel Canada, the No side is the -150 favorite while the Yes side sits as the +120 underdog. When we last took a look at this market back in late October, the No side was the heavier -210 favorite with the Yes side the +164 underdog. Super Bowl LIX will be hosted by the city of New Orleans at the Caesars Superdome on Feb. 9, 2025.

Will a First-Time Winner Win Super Bowl LIX?

(Odds courtesy FanDuel Canada as of Jan. 2 at 11 a.m. ET)

OddsImplied ProbabilityProfit on $10 Bet
Yes+12045.45%$12
No-15060.00%$6.67

Which 12 teams have never won the Super Bowl?

Of those dozen teams that have never won the Super Bowl, two of them have made it to the big game four times. The Buffalo Bills went to four straight Super Bowl games (Super Bowls XXV, XXVI, XXVII, and XXVIII) and managed to lose each and every one of those contests. The Minnesota Vikings appeared in Super Bowls IV, VIII, IX, and XI, and lost all four of those games - so four defeats over the course of eight Super Bowl games.

The Cincinnati Bengals have advanced to the Super Bowl three times in franchise history, losing each of Super Bowl XVI, XXIII, and LVI, with the Carolina Panthers losing both Super Bowl XXXVIII and Super Bowl L, and the Atlanta Falcons losing both Super Bowl XXXIII and Super Bowl LI. The Tennessee Titans (Super Bowl XXXIV), Arizona Cardinals (Super Bowl XLIII), and Los Angeles/San Diego Chargers (Super Bowl XXIX) all have one Super Bowl appearance (and loss), while none of the Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, or Detroit Lions have advanced as far as the Super Bowl.

How are those teams doing so far this season?

Five of the teams that have never won the Super Bowl – the Browns, Jaguars, Cardinals, Titans, and Panthers – have already been eliminated from playoff contention and will be putting their championship aspirations on hold for at least one more season. Two others – the Bengals and the Falcons, both sitting with 8-8 records – are currently outside the league’s playoff picture and need things to fall their way in Week 18 to claim a postseason berth. They’re the longest shots on the latest Super Bowl odds board.

That leaves five teams that have never won the Super Bowl having already clinched playoff berths with one week left in the season – the Lions, Vikings, Bills, Texans, and Chargers. For the AFC trio, the 13-3 Bills have clinched the AFC East title but will fall short of a first-round bye despite having topped the Kansas City Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11. The 9-7 Texans have won the (weak) AFC South, and the 10-6 Chargers never really challenged the Chiefs in the AFC West but will make the playoffs as a Wild Card.

As for the NFC duo, the Vikings have impressed at 14-2 on the season and will carry a league-best nine-game winning streak into Week 18, while their NFC North rival the Lions are also 14-2 after knocking off the Niners on Monday night to close out Week 17. Those two teams will now meet in the Sunday night matchup in Week 18, with the winner claiming the NFC North title and a first-round bye in the playoffs.

Who is standing in the way of a championship?

The 15-1 Chiefs have won the Super Bowl in each of the last two seasons and in three of the last five years and sit as the current +360 favorite on the Super Bowl LIX odds at FanDuel Canada. Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, and company would be seen as the biggest obstacle on the road to a first-time Super Bowl championship for the likes of the Lions, Vikings, Bills, Texans, and Chargers franchises this season.

The 11-5 Baltimore Ravens are sitting fourth on the latest Super Bowl odds at +650, but are still battling with the 10-6 Pittsburgh Steelers (+5000) for the AFC North division title heading into the final week of the NFL regular season. The Lions (+470) and Bills (+600) are sandwiched  between the Chiefs, Ravens, and 13-3 Philadelphia Eagles (+700) on the Super Bowl futures, with the Vikings listed at +800 odds.

So the frontrunning Chiefs will be gunning for their third straight Super Bowl championship this season, but history is not on their side as no team has ever accomplished that feat. Therefore, with the Lions, the Vikings, and the Bills in particular looking like top championship contenders so far this season – they boast three of the top five records in the league along with the Chiefs and Eagles heading into Week 18 – let's stick with a first-time Super Bowl winner and the bigger payout as the wagering pick for February.

My Pick: Yes (+120)

Written By:
Dave Crowley
From writing Little League recaps for his community newspaper, to covering varsity teams for his university publication, to delivering football, basketball, baseball, and hockey articles to many major websites, Dave Crowley has been producing sports content for over three decades. A graduate of Carleton University with a Bachelor of Journalism degree, he has written articles and supplied features for websites including Sports Illustrated, NBC Sports, NESN.com, Sportsnet.ca, Daily Faceoff, SBNation.com, and Bleacher Report. Leading editorial teams in the industry for two decades, Crowley has honed his sports-betting knowledge while producing articles on all aspects of wagering from the highest-profile lines of the week to the more obscure props on the board. And since his favorite teams rarely find themselves in contention, he has had plenty of time to turn his attention beyond the four major North American leagues to the college ranks plus golf, tennis, the Olympics, international soccer, and more, all while developing content for his side project at Attiq.ca. Crowley’s prize possession is the O-Pee-Chee Wayne Gretzky rookie card that he got out of a pack at a variety store in 1979 and has somehow managed to keep in solid shape for 45 years.