Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks & Player Props for Tonight's NHL Game
The road has been about as kind to the Tampa Bay Lightning as salt water to an open wound. They've lost five of the last six in hostile environments and get set to battle the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena on Monday (7:30 p.m. ET, Prime Video).
The Maple Leafs will hope Tampa Bay's road woes continues as they look to recapture their groove on home ice, where they're on an inadequate run of four wins from the last nine.
Despite that bumpy stretch at Scotiabank Arena, Toronto is among the Stanley Cup odds front-runners, and our Lightning vs. Maple Leafs prediction, picks, and player props expect the home team to make it three wins in a row.
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs predictions today
NHL odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Game pick: Maple Leafs ML (-115 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐
- Brandon Hagel player prop pick: Over 2.5 shots (-105 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Mitch Marner player prop: Over 1.5 points (+160 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
My best Lightning vs. Maple Leafs pick
Maple Leafs ML ⭐⭐⭐
Despite going down 3-0 in Montreal, the Maple Leafs came back and swatted aside the hottest team in the league, 7-3. That was after beating the New Jersey Devils 4-3 at home in overtime, which snapped a three-game losing skid, their longest of the season.
While the Maple Leafs probably deserved to lose against the Devils, a rare poor start from Jacob Markstrom and another solid home outing from Joseph Woll led Craig Berube's team to victory. Both wins, combined with Toronto's best players seemingly scoring at will, should inject confidence going into Monday's game.
Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander are playing with the kind of swagger Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are accustomed to in the playoffs.
The triumvirate has 11 points in the last two games, including six goals from Matthews and Nylander. And the threesome — with 10 points in two games this season — have fed on the Lightning like hyenas to an exposed carcass.
Tampa's recent road woes
Tampa is tied for the second-worst points percentage in the last six games (.250) on the road. Jon Cooper's squad failed to score more than two goals in any of those games.
Their Vezina Trophy winner has also fallen into a sinkhole when away from the friendly confines of Amalie Arena. Andrei Vasilevskiy has lost four in a row on the road, allowing seven in his last two starts, including four on 22 shots in Boston.
The Maple Leafs won both previous meetings, with Vasilevskiy conceding nine goals. A winning $10 bet will profit $8.70.
Best odds: -115 via Betway | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Best Lightning vs. Maple Leafs player prop pick
NHL picks made Monday; odds subject to change.
Brandon Hagel prop pick: Over 2.5 shots ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Hagel has one thing on his mind lately: firing rubber on target. He has hit the Over on this prop in eight of the last nine games and four in a row. In that nine-game stretch, Hagel averaged 4.6. He fired at least five shots in four of those nine tilts.
Hagel has averaged eight shot attempts per contest in the last five games, and a winning $10 bet will profit $9.52.
Best odds: -105 via Betway | Implied probability: 51.22%
Mitch Marner prop pick: Over 1.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Marner has four assists in the last two games, posting two against the Devils at home and two in Montreal vs. the Canadiens. He notched four assists in the previous two games against the Lightning, and I like his chances of an encore performance. This one is more of a flier, though, as his +160 odds indicate.
Marner has 22 multi-point games, scoring at least two points in 47% of his 47 games. Thirteen of those occurred at Scotiabank Arena, and a winning $10 bet will profit $16.
Best odds: +160 via Betway | Implied probability: 38.46%
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs odds
Odds via Betway.
| Market | Lightning | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -105 | -115 |
| Puck line | +1.5 (-275) | -1.5 (+185) |
| Over/Under | Over 5.5 (-165) | Under 5.5 (+125) |
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs injuries
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs game info
- When: Monday, Jan. 20
- Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto)
- How to watch: Prime Video
- Favorite: Maple Leafs (-115 via Betway)
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