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Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's NHL Game

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: November 9, 2024 11:30 AM EST • 3 min 3 sec read.

Toronto Maple Leafs William Nylander and John Tavares (91) celebrate a goal by forward Mitch Marner as we offer our Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs prediction.
Toronto Maple Leafs William Nylander and John Tavares (91) celebrate a goal by forward Mitch Marner. Photo by John E. Sokolowski via Imagn Images

Since starting the season with two wins from three games, including a 1-0 opening-game triumph over the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Montreal Canadiens have lost nine of the last 11 and five on the bounce. 

Considering they're still enmeshed in a rebuild, the Canadiens ownership group would have expected more losses than wins this season. Still, nothing would have prepared them for being rooted to the bottom of the standings with the joint-worst goal differential (-19).

Saturday's contest at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+) offers the Habs another opportunity to return to winning ways. They face one of the Stanley Cup odds front-runners in the Maple Leafs, who will be without Auston Matthews for a third straight game. 

His absence hasn't negatively impacted the Maple Leafs, who've won both without his services, outscoring Detroit and Boston 7-1. 

Toronto is playing on the second straight night and will give Joseph Woll the start. With that in mind, our Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs prediction veers from picking the home favorites.

Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs prediction

Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

My best bet: Over 6.5 goals ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +105 via Betway | Implied probability: 48.78%

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I don't love this spot for the heavily favored Maple Leafs. With Friday's 3-1 win over the Detroit Red Wings, they improved their record without Matthews to 37-19-2.

But surely it's only a matter of time before Toronto loses a game without its leading man.

While they may not lose tonight against the lowly Canadiens, there's not enough value in backing them on the moneyline, and I don't think they'll cover the -1.5 spread for various reasons. 

First, they're playing on consecutive nights, so fatigue could be a factor. Second, Woll will be given the nod in goal. Since returning, he has yet to return to his peak powers, winning one of three starts with a 2.70 goals-against average and a .892 save percentage. 

The third factor considers how much the Canadiens raise their level for these rivalry games.

Thanks to Sam Montembeault's heroics, Martin St. Louis' squad beat the Maple Leafs 1-0 in the season opener. Both losses to Toronto last season were decided by a goal. I'd back the Canadiens +1.5 on the puck line if the price, currently at -145, weren't so steep. 

Why back the Over

Anthony Stolarz won't be playing, providing a more straightforward path to seeing Over 6.5 goals. The Maple Leafs are also due for an Over after playing five straight Unders. 

The Canadiens are prime Over candidates. They allow the most goals per game (4.07), and the most goals against per 60 minutes 5-on-5 (3.88). 

Montembeault has been confirmed as the Canadiens starter, according to NHL Daily Faceoff. He's allowed at least four goals in three of the last six and has been on a decline since shutting out the Maple Leafs in the opener. He has a 3.92 GAA and a .868 save percentage in the nine games since shutting out Toronto. 

Finally, the Maple Leafs power play is on fire, scoring all six in the last three games that weren't empty-netters. A winning $10 bet will profit $10.50.

Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs player prop bet

NHL picks made Saturday; odds subject to change.

Mitch Marner prop bet: Over 1.5 points ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +140 via Betway | Implied probability: 41.67%

Mitch Marner was as omnipresent as dominant Friday against the Red Wings. As expected, he's stepping it up in Matthews' absence. He leads the team with 18 points in 15 games and has four points in the last two.

Marner has 11 points in the last seven games and has eight more assists than second-place Morgan Rielly, the biggest discrepancy between first and second on any team. A winning $10 bet will profit $14. 

Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs live odds & info

  • When: Saturday, Nov. 9
  • Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
  • Where: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto)
  • How to watch: ESPN+
  • Favorite: Maple Leafs (-210 via Betway)

Canadiens-Maple Leafs predictions made Saturday at 9 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.