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Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction, Picks & Best Bets Today: NFL Week 16

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 21, 2024 10:00 AM EST • 4 min 13 sec read.

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud attempts a pass against the Miami Dolphins, and we offer our top Texans vs. Chiefs prediction.
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud attempts a pass against the Miami Dolphins. Photo by Troy Taormina via Imagn Images.

We have a special Saturday doubleheader in Week 16, and a pair of bangers are on tap. The action begins with a showdown between the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs.

There were plenty of question marks surrounding this game at the beginning of the week, as Patrick Mahomes' status was up in the air due to an ankle injury. As a result, the Chiefs were trading as home underdogs.

However, the spread flipped with news that Mahomes will be active Saturday at 1 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock), and the Chiefs now serve as better than field-goal favorites.

Our Texans vs. Chiefs prediction looks as whether Mahomes can lead Kansas City to another victory even if his ankle hobbles him, or if the Texans should have remained the favorites.

We offer betting advice for this game and more as part of our NFL Week 16 predictions.

Texans vs. Chiefs predictions

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Chiefs -3.5 (-104 via FanDuel) vs. Texans ⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Joe Mixon Under 91.5 rushing and receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Texans vs. Chiefs ATS prediction: Week 16

Chiefs to cover the spread: -3.5 ⭐⭐

Best odds: -104 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.98%

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Kansas City continues to find ways to win

Five teams in the NFL have yet to score more than 30 points in a game this season, one of them is the Chiefs. Unsurprisingly, none of the other four have more than three wins on the season.

That is a testament to Kansas City’s defense and special teams. But also a nod to a winning pedigree that has seen the Chiefs win 19 of their last 20 games, including the playoffs.

While playing three games in 11 days is not ideal, the hosts should have a sense of urgency and a desire to win this game. They would have the luxury of possibly resting Mahomes on Christmas, knowing that their magic number to clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed is one.

Stroud should struggle against Kansas City’s blitz

Kansas City’s Steve Spagnuolo is arguably the best defensive coordinator in the NFL. When he senses a weakness, he does everything he can to exploit it.

C.J. Stroud has been horrible against the blitz of late. From Weeks 1-6 when facing a blitz, Stroud had a 93 QBR (ranked second), completed 69% of his passes, and was sacked 8% of the time. 

Since Week 7, Stroud’s QBR against the blitz dropped to 20 (ranked last), while he has completed 48% of his passes and been sacked 15% of the time. This is bad news when facing a Chiefs defense that blitzes 35% of the time, the third-highest rate in the NFL.

Houston’s 181 yards last week were its fewest in a win since 2006, but that won’t cut it on the road against a team as good as Kansas City.

Backing Kansas City with Mahomes

Head coach Andy Reid reported Thursday that the team would likely play Mahomes on Saturday. Even if Mahomes ends up sitting out last minute, I would still back Kansas City with Carson Wentz under center in a game it would likely kick off as home underdogs.

It is a testament to Reid that since he took over as the Kansas City head coach in 2013, his teams are 4-3 SU and ATS when playing with a backup quarterback. Kansas City has also averaged 23 points per game in those seven games, thanks to Reid’s genius offensive mind.

I can only back this pick with two starts of confidence in case Mahomes cannot play, so I would not put anyone off waiting until closer to kickoff to fire away on the favorites. FanDuel has the best price of the best NFL betting sites at -104.

Texans vs. Chiefs best pick

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Joe Mixon Under 91.5 rushing and receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

Joe Mixon has averaged 3.3 yards per rush since Week 10 (the fourth-fewest among running backs). I expect him to be bottled up by a Chiefs defense that allows the fewest yards per game to running backs this season.

Mixon was also a limited participant at practice mid-week after being hampered by an ankle injury last week. If he is less than 100% in this game, I am jumping on this favorable number early at FanDuel.

This O/U is as low as 85.5 at Caesars, so Under backers are getting a great number at FanDuel. Through its -114 odds, a $10 winning wager would profit $8.77.

NFL Saturday expert picks

Texans vs. Chiefs odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Texans vs. Chiefs live odds

Texans vs. Chiefs opening odds:

  • Texans: -2.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
  • Chiefs: +2.5 (-105 via BetMGM)

Texans vs. Chiefs odds movement

As mentioned, this line jumped from Texans -2.5 to Chiefs -3.5 with the news that Mahomes practiced fully and will suit up.

Since then, the majority of the public has backed the Chiefs as home favorites.

Texans vs. Chiefs injuries

Texans vs. Chiefs game info

  • When: Saturday, Dec. 21
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
  • How to watch: NBC/Peacock
  • Weather: 40 degrees, 2% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph ESE
  • Favorite: Chiefs -3.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”