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Texans vs. Chiefs Player Prop Picks & Touchdown Prediction: NFL Divisional Round

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 18, 2025 10:10 AM EST • 3 min 49 sec read.

Kansas City Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt and wide receiver Xavier Worthy celebrate a touchdown as we make our best Texans vs. Chiefs player prop picks & touchdown predictions.
Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt and wide receiver Xavier Worthy celebrate a touchdown. Photo by Barry Reeger / Imagn Images.

After securing a 27-19 win over the Houston Texans in Week 16, the Kansas City Chiefs should be able to control the rematch in today's NFL Divisional Round as we offer our Texans vs. Chiefs player prop picks for this 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff (ESPN).

The Chiefs are 8.5-point favorites for the rematch at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, and we like their chances to get a rookie receiver involved and shut down Houston's rushing attack - though we're taking the other side in our Texans vs. Chiefs prediction.

Texans vs. Chiefs NFL player prop picks: Saturday

Odds as of Friday and subject to change.

  • Xavier Worthy touchdown prediction: Anytime touchdown scorer (+210 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Joe Mixon Under 58.5 rushing yards (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

NFL picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Texans vs. Chiefs touchdown prediction

Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown scorer (+210) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +210 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 32.26%

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Worthy did not explode as a pass-catcher like fellow rookies Malik Nabers and Brock Bowers did this season. But he did score nine total touchdowns, and his ramped-up usage down the stretch has me intrigued about his anytime touchdown chances.

Over the final seven games of the regular season, Worthy led all Chiefs receptions (39), receiving yards (392), and touchdowns (three). 

This is a three-star play, as Houston is susceptible to big plays in the passing game. The Texans allow the league’s lowest completion rate (58%) but still rank 28th in touchdown rate and have allowed an NFL-high 17 touchdowns outside the red zone.

The best value for this play is found at FanDuel, with Caesars on the low end of the market with +170 anytime touchdown odds.

Through FanDuel’s +210 odds, a $10 winning wager would net $21 in profits.

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Texans vs. Chiefs expert picks & predictions

Best Texans vs. Chiefs prop picks

Joe Mixon Under 58.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%

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This is a perfect opportunity to sell high on Mixon following his 106-rushing yard performance against the Chargers in the wild-card round.

Sixty of Mixon’s 106 yards last week came on the team’s final possession, as he totaled just 46 yards on 15 carries before that. With Houston being an 8.5-point underdog in this matchup, we should not see him running much late while salting away the game.

Mixon had 14 carries for 57 yards in the Week 16 matchup against Kansas City, and the Chiefs are one of the best tackling teams in the league, allowing the second-fewest yards after contact.

This is a four-star play on the boom-or-bust Mixon, who eclipsed the 100-yard mark three times in the final eight games, but was held to 2.4 yards per carry in the other five.

Under backers are getting the best number and price at DraftKings, as the total is as low as 55.5 (with the Under juiced to -115) at some of our other best sports betting apps.

Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 53.49%

If any defense is opportunistic enough to force Mahomes into an interception in a playoff game, it’s the Texans.

Houston ranks No. 1 in Defensive Efficiency and fifth in touchdown-to-turnover ratio. It is also coming off a game where it became the fifth team in the Super Bowl era with four or more interceptions, four-plus sacks, and a pick-six in a playoff game.

Mahomes threw double-digit interceptions (11) for the fourth straight season, but those 11 picks came with his fewest number passing attempts in that span.

The Over is juiced as high as -125 (carrying a 55.56% implied probability) at Caesars, so I am taking advantage of the best price at DraftKings.

Texans vs. Chiefs game info

  • When: Saturday, Jan. 18
  • Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
  • How to watch: ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
  • Weather: 25 degrees, 2% chance of precipitation, wind 15 mph NNW
  • Favorite: Chiefs -8.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

NFL Divisional Round expert picks

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”