Texans vs. Chiefs Player Prop Picks & Touchdown Prediction
Patrick Mahomes will look to fight through an injury to lead his Kansas City Chiefs over the Houston Texans.
The Mahomes injury looms large, as I make the best Texans vs. Chiefs player prop picks for Saturday’s 1 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock) game in Kansas City.
Though initial reports stated that Mahomes could miss this game, he’s since been cleared to start and the Chiefs are now favored by 3.5 after being 2.5-point underdogs earlier this week.
How will Mahomes fare against the Texans’ solid pass defense? And if he does have success, who will be his primary target?
And, for the Texans, what should we expect from Joe Mixon in a very tough matchup?
We dive into those questions and more as part of our NFL Week 16 predictions.
Texans vs. Chiefs NFL player prop picks: Saturday
Odds as of Friday and subject to change.
- Noah Gray touchdown prediction: Anytime touchdown scorer (+430 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Joe Mixon Under 60.5 rushing yards (-103 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes Under 225.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NFL picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Texans vs. Chiefs touchdown prediction
Noah Gray anytime touchdown scorer (+430) ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +430 via Caesars | Implied probability: 18.87%
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Last week, Gray scored his fifth touchdown in five weeks, and he now has more receiving touchdowns than any other player on the Chiefs.
Though he's still far behind Travis Kelce when it comes to receptions and yards, he has three more touchdown receptions than the star tight end. Yet, Kelce is +175 to score and Gray is +430.
This week, Gray gets a solid matchup, as the Texans are allowing 1.9 passing touchdowns per game. They’ve also given up six touchdowns to tight ends, which are tied for the seventh-most in the NFL.
DraftKings has the price set at +350, while FanDuel is asking +390. At +430, the price at Caesars is the best by a solid margin.
Best Texans vs. Chiefs prop picks
Joe Mixon Under 60.5 rushing yards (-103) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -103 via Caesars | Implied probability: 50.74%
Mixon has struggled quite a bit over the last few weeks. He’s averaged fewer than 2.0 yards per attempt in three of his last five games, and last week against the Miami Dolphins, he managed just 23 yards on 12 carries.
Though Mixon has had some incredible games, his success is matchup-based, and this is a terrible matchup for him. The Chiefs are allowing just 91.9 rushing yards per game, which are the third-fewest in the league. They’re also allowing just 3.9 yards per carry, the fourth-best average in the NFL.
Mixon has gone Under 60 yards in three of his last five, so to get this prop for a price of -103 is simply too good to pass up. Get in as soon as possible, though, as three of our five best sports betting sites already have this total set at 59.5 or lower.
We also faded Mixon as part of our Texans vs. Chiefs prediction.
Patrick Mahomes Under 225.5 passing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Mahomes has thrown for 210 yards or fewer in back-to-back games, and now he has to take on one of the best pass defenses in football while dealing with a high ankle sprain. While I don’t expect him to be 100%, he would likely struggle in this matchup even if he was.
The Texans are allowing just 196.9 passing yards per game. Mahomes is averaging over 239 yards per game, but his injury and the Texans' success against the pass should be more than enough to hold him to 15 fewer yards than his season average.
Right now, four of our best sports betting apps have this total set at 225.5, and bet365 is offering the best price for the Under. Since this is a standalone game and Mahomes is such a popular player, you can wait to wager, as this number is likely to increase before kickoff.
NFL Saturday expert picks
- Texans vs. Chiefs prediction
- Texans vs. Chiefs player prop picks
- Steelers vs. Ravens prediction
- Anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Saturday
Texans vs. Chiefs game info
- When: Saturday, Dec. 21
- Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
- How to watch: NBC/Peacock
- Weather: 34 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph SE
- Favorite: Chiefs -3.5 (-104 via FanDuel)
NFL betting odds pages
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- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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