Texans vs. Chiefs Expert Picks: Player Props, Touchdown Predictions & More
The Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs open up the 2025 NFL Divisional Round today with a 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium with the broadcast available on ESPN and ABC. Our Texans vs. Chiefs expert picks round up all of our best picks, including a pick against the spread, player props, and touchdown scorer predictions.
The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs are massive 8.5-point betting favorites at home in this second-round playoff match, according to the divisional round odds. Kansas City has the shortest Super Bowl odds of the remaining four AFC challengers and sits second on the overall oddsboard.
The winner of today's matchup will advance to face the winner of Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills in the AFC championship.
Texans vs. Chiefs expert picks: Divisional round
Odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Against the spread pick: Texans +8.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Chiefs ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop pick: Joe Mixon Under 58.5 rushing yards (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Touchdown scorer prediction: DeAndre Hopkins to score a touchdown (+310 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Don't miss Brenden Schaeffer's Texans vs. Chiefs parlay picks for a shot at a +449 payday!
Best Texans vs. Chiefs picks
Texans to cover the spread: +8.5 ⭐⭐⭐
The Chiefs won by just eight in Week 16 despite Houston employing a questionable game plan.
Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud didn't play especially well - which was a common theme throughout the season - but his team didn't help matters by more or less abandoning the run. Houston running backs combined for just 15 rushing attempts, while Stroud threw the ball 39 times, despite the fact it was a relatively competitive game throughout.
However, during the Texans' Wild Card Weekend victory, they leaned heavily on Joe Mixon, especially in the second half. Mixon and the Texans wore down a stout Chargers defensive front, as he ran the ball 25 times to Stroud's 33 pass attempts.
Mixon missed practice Thursday with an ankle injury, but unless his ankle snapped in half, he'll be out there and ready for a big workload on Saturday. If the Texans can slow down the game, it could also help quiet what should be a raucous crowd at Arrowhead.
Eleven of the Chiefs' 14 victories this season were by just one possession. Additionally, they've won just two of their last 10 playoff games by more than one possession. I don't give the Texans a real chance of winning, but I think they can cover this number.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Texans vs. Chiefs prediction made by Andrew Brennan.
Joe Mixon Under 58.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is a perfect opportunity to sell high on Mixon following his 106-rushing yard performance against the Chargers in the wild-card round.
Sixty of Mixon’s 106 yards last week came on the team’s final possession, as he totaled just 46 yards on 15 carries before that. With Houston being an 8.5-point underdog in this matchup, we should not see him running much late while salting away the game.
Mixon had 14 carries for 57 yards in the Week 16 matchup against Kansas City, and the Chiefs are one of the best tackling teams in the league, allowing the second-fewest yards after contact.
This is a four-star play on the boom-or-bust Mixon, who eclipsed the 100-yard mark three times in the final eight games, but was held to 2.4 yards per carry in the other five.
Under backers are getting the best number and price at DraftKings, as the total is as low as 55.5 (with the Under juiced to -115) at some of our other best sports betting apps.
Texans vs. Chiefs player prop picks made by Mike Spector.
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Chiefs anytime touchdown scorer prediction: DeAndre Hopkins ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The best way to score against the Texans is to throw for touchdowns against them. They allowed 1.8 passing touchdowns per game this season, which was the third-most leaguewide.
While Mahomes has thrown 26 touchdown passes this campaign, he’s done a good job of spreading it around. That makes it tough to pinpoint one player who will be on the other end.
Xavier Worthy leads the team in touchdown receptions. But his price sits at +210, and he only scored two more touchdowns than Hopkins. And while Travis Kelce scored during the final game of the season, he only tallied three touchdowns all year. His price of +165 provides little value.
But Hopkins scored four times with the Chiefs this season. While he failed to score in his final three games of the year, Hopkins still managed to become the team’s third-leading touchdown recipient despite playing just 10 games.
Back him at this price ahead of a great matchup.
Texans vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown scorer predictions made by Phil Wood.
Best odds: +310 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 24.39%
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Texans vs. Chiefs expert picks & predictions
- Texans vs. Chiefs prediction
- Texans vs. Chiefs player props
- Texans vs. Chiefs parlay picks
- Texans vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown scorer predictions
- C.J. Stroud player props
- Patrick Mahomes player props
Texans vs. Chiefs odds
Texans vs. Chiefs game info
- When: Saturday, Jan. 18
- Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 25 degrees, 2% chance of precipitation, wind 15 mph NNW
- Favorite: Chiefs -8.5 (-108 via FanDuel)
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