Texans vs. Chiefs Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for Saturday Week 16
The Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs headline the NFL Week 16 slate on Saturday when the two AFC contenders clash at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.
Our Texans vs. Chiefs early picks and odds help find the top values at the best NFL betting sites. Our early pick for the intraconference contest is a part of our NFL Week 16 predictions.
The biggest question mark ahead of this marquee matchup is the status of Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City lists him as week-to-week, but he was a full participant in the Chiefs' return to practice on Tuesday, which shifted the odds at best sports betting sites.
My early Texans vs. Chiefs prediction: Under 42.5
NFL picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Prediction: Under 42.5
Best odds: -115 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Houston and Kansas City are two of the most hit-or-miss teams against the spread. They've compiled a 12-14-2 combined ATS record, and with Mahomes still listed as questionable, we don't feel comfortable playing the spread either way.
As such, we're turning to the total for our early pick, where we'll play the Under.
- The Texans are one of the NFL's most profitable total teams, with 10 of their 14 games cashing the Under
- The Chiefs have gone Under at a 57.1% clip this season
- Both teams boast top-five total defenses and top-10 scoring defenses
FanDuel has the best odds on the total among our NFL prop betting sites. The Under 42.5 game line is listed at -115, and it carries an implied probability of 53.49%. This is a value play considering the teams have gone Under at a 64.29% clip in the current campaign.
Don't miss our guide for how to bet on NFL or this week's best sportsbook promos.
Texans vs. Chiefs live odds
See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for every Week 16 game.
Moneyline
- Texans best odds: +126 via Caesars | Implied probability: 44.25%
- Chiefs best odds: -135 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 57.45%
Houston opened up as a slight favorite on the road, but the developments surrounding Mahomes quickly swung the pendulum in the host's favor. DraftKings has the shortest odds on the Chiefs (-135), whereas Caesars offers the Texans moneyline at plus-money (+126).
Spread
- Texans best odds: +3 (-125) via BetMGM
- Chiefs best odds: -2.5 (-110) via FanDuel
Even with Mahomes listed as questionable for this contest, bettors jumped all over the opening spread of Texans -3.5. The public is showing hesitancy to back a team that is 6-6-2 against the spread this year. The line has flipped on its head with the Chiefs now field-goal favorites at our best sportsbooks.
Over/Under
- Over best odds: 41.5 (-105) via BetMGM
- Under best odds: 42.5 (-115) via FanDuel
This is the one market we recommend waiting to play. Mahomes' status will undoubtedly impact the total, so unless you feel strongly about the O/U of 41.5 points, there will likely be better prices as kickoff inches closer.
The best market for the Over is currently at BetMGM (-105). Meanwhile, FanDuel is where Under bettors can grab the line at 42.5 (-115).
Texans vs. Chiefs line movement
Mahomes was a full participant in Kansas City's return to practice on Tuesday, which saw an already volatile market flipped on its head.
Houston opened as a 3.5-point favorite at the best sportsbooks. However, the news surrounding Mahomes now sees the Chiefs listed as field-goal favorites, despite his game status not changing yet.
The total is also up as high as 42.5 points at some books, with the market agreeing on an O/U of 40 to begin the week.
How to watch Texans vs. Chiefs
- When: Saturday, Dec. 21
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City)
- How to watch: NBC/Peacock
- Weather: 39 degrees, 2% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph ESE
NFL betting odds pages
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- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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