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How to Bet Travis Kelce's NFL Player Props Based Solely on Taylor Swift's Attendance

Andrew Brennan

Last Updated: January 26, 2025 12:17 PM EST • 5 min 18 sec read.

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce celebrates with girlfriend Taylor Swift after defeating the San Francisco 49ers in the Super Bowl, and we look at the best Travis Kelce player props based on Taylor Swift's attendance.
Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce celebrates with girlfriend Taylor Swift after defeating the San Francisco 49ers in the Super Bowl. Photo by Mark J. Rebilas via Imagn.

Football's most famous couple will once again take center stage on Sunday, much to the chagrin of haters everywhere.

The Kansas City Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game with kickoff set for 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS) from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. And Travis Kelce will likely play his usual massive role for the home team - with girlfriend and global pop superstar Taylor Swift likely in attendance to support the Chiefs tight end.

Our Travis Kelce player props look at how he's performed when Swift is watching from the crowd, and we're offering three picks based solely on those numbers.

Travis Kelce stats with Taylor Swift in attendance

Donna Kelce and Scott Swift and pop star Taylor Swift watch play as we break down the best Travis Kelce player props based on Swift
Pictured: Donna Kelce and Scott Swift and pop star Taylor Swift watch play. Photo by Denny Medley / Imagn Images.

Here are Travis Kelce's stats during all 21 games that Taylor Swift has attended since they started dating (postseason games bolded):

  • Sept. 24, 2023 vs. Bears: 7 catches, 69 yards, 1 TD
  • Oct. 1, 2023 at Jets: 6 catches, 60 yards
  • Oct. 12, 2023 vs. Broncos: 9 catches, 124 yards
  • Oct. 22, 2023 vs. Chargers: 12 catches, 179 yards, 1 TD
  • Dec. 3, 2023 at Packers: 4 catches, 81 yards
  • Dec. 10, 2023 vs. Bills: 6 catches, 83 yards
  • Dec. 17, 2023 at Patriots: 5 catches, 28 yards
  • Dec. 25, 2023 vs. Raiders: 4 catches, 44 yards
  • Dec. 31, 2023 vs. Bengals: 3 catches, 16 yards
  • Jan. 13, 2024 vs. Dolphins (Wild Card Weekend): 7 catches, 71 yards
  • Jan. 21, 2024 at Bills (AFC Divisional Round): 5 catches, 75 yards, 2 TDs
  • Jan. 28, 2024 at Ravens (AFC Championship Game): 11 catches, 116 yards, 1 TD
  • Feb. 11, 2024 vs. 49ers (Super Bowl in Las Vegas): 9 catches, 93 yards
  • Sept. 5, 2024 vs. Ravens: 3 catches, 34 yards
  • Sept. 15, 2024 vs. Bengals: 1 catch, 5 yards
  • Oct. 7, 2024 vs. Saints: 9 catches, 70 yards
  • Nov. 4, 2024 vs. Buccaneers: 14 catches, 100 yards
  • Nov. 10, 2024 vs. Broncos: 8 catches, 64 yards, 1 TD
  • Nov. 29, 2024 vs. Raiders: 7 catches, 68 yards
  • Dec. 21, 2024 vs. Texans: 5 catches, 30 yards
  • Jan. 19, 2025 vs. Texans (AFC Divisional Round): 7 catches, 117 yards, 1 TD

Let's break down some of these numbers.

First, and most importantly for those looking to cash in on Kelce's +130 anytime TD odds, the tight end has caught a touchdown in just six of the 21 games Swift has attended (28.5%). However, he has managed to score in three of the five playoff games she's attended - good for 60%.

He's averaged 6.8 catches per game with Swift in attendance, and that number jumps to 7.8 in the postseason.

Finally, Kelce is averaging 72.7 receiving yards per game when Swift is there cheering him on. Once again, that number skyrockets to 94.4 in the postseason.

Travis Kelce player prop odds vs. Bills

Here are the best Travis Kelce player prop odds via our best NFL betting sites ahead of the AFC Championship.

Travis Kelce player prop predictions

Here are our best Travis Kelce player prop predictions this weekend across our best NFL prop betting sites.

Check out the rest of our NFL conference championships predictions ahead of Commanders vs. Lions and Bills vs. Chiefs on Sunday.

Best Travis Kelce NFL picks vs. Bills

Here are the best NFL picks for Kelce this weekend based on Swift's attendance.

Kansas City Chiefs fans hold fathead signs of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift as we break down the best Travis Kelce player props based on Swift
Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs fans hold fathead signs of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift. Photo by Denny Medley / Imagn Images.

Travis Kelce anytime touchdown (+130 via FanDuel)

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Let's start with the most interesting bet of the bunch: whether or not Kelce will score a touchdown.

Based on all 21 games Swift has attended, it's hard to justify betting on Kelce to find the end zone in this one. However, if we look at his five playoff games with her in the crowd, this bet becomes much more appealing. 

Additionally, the last time Swift attended a Chiefs game against the Bills, Kelce actually found the end zone twice. Perhaps she's Buffalo's bad-luck charm?

If you really want to buy into that narrative, you can parlay a Kelce TD with a Chiefs victory to get +234 odds at FanDuel. 

Travis Kelce Under 69.5 receiving yards (-110 via DraftKings)

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I had a hard time finding the balance between Kelce's receiving yards average across all 21 games Swift has attended and the five postseason contests she's been there for.

If you go by the latter, it's an easy Over. And I'd have no issue with that.

However, he went Under this number in six of the eight games Swift attended this season, so it's possible not even the pop princess herself can stand up to Father Time.

When we take the average from this season's eight games - 61 yards per contest - we're getting a ton of value on this Under at DraftKings. I can't ignore that.

Travis Kelce Over 6.5 receptions (-110 via bet365)

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Even during a down year overall, Kelce has remained mighty busy when Swift attends.

Despite the fact that he managed only one catch against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2, Kelce still averaged 6.8 receptions across the eight games Swift watched this season.

Now, though this isn't a +EV bet based on that number, there's also no real value on the Under like there was with the yardage. Of course, the same goes for his 6.8 average receptions across the 21 games in total.

With that in mind and knowing the Chiefs will look to their alpha receiver with the season on the line, I will turn to his postseason receptions average with Swift in attendance (7.8). Based on that number, we're getting a ton of value on Over 6.5 at these -110 odds via bet365.

Don't be scared to bet both the Under receiving yards and Over receptions. Kelce has finished Over 6.5 receptions but Under 70.5 receiving yards four times with Swift in the crowd.

Bills vs. Chiefs odds

Here are the latest Bills vs. Chiefs odds from our best sportsbooks.

Bills vs. Chiefs expert picks & predictions

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Written By:
Andrew Brennan
Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He also heads the website’s MLB coverage, from the various futures markets to daily picks. Andrew believes a math-based approach is the best way to enjoy long-term success in sports betting, and he’s spent the better part of the last year fine-tuning his own process for MLB, NBA, and NFL picks. Andrew uses eight different sportsbooks to find the best odds available and various projection models to gather as much information as he can. His most used sportsbooks are bet365, FanDuel, and theScore Bet. When it comes to daily projection models, he regularly references NumberFire across all sports, as it’s one of the best free tools available. In terms of which daily markets Andrew attacks, he almost exclusively bets on pitcher strikeouts for baseball. When the winter rolls around, you’ll see him providing more variety when it comes to the NBA (points, assists, rebounds) and NFL (almost any offensive-based player prop). He used these tools to go +150 units in 2023. Andrew is also a passionate fantasy sports player. He’s played fantasy football, fantasy Premier League, and fantasy baseball for the last decade. He graduated from Durham College with his diploma in journalism after earning his degree in law from Carleton University. He’s worked in sports media since early 2017, first contributing at FanSided before moving to theScore. He joined SBR in 2022.