Super Bowl Picks: The Case for (and Against) Every NFL Playoff Team to Win Super Bowl 2025
With just eight teams left in the NFL playoffs, we're offering our latest Super Bowl picks with a case for and against every team to win the Super Bowl entering the NFL Divisional Round.
We already made the case for all eight teams to win this weekend in our NFL divisional round picks and preview, and I've laid out my picks for every remaining postseason contest and offered my Super Bowl champion in my NFL playoff bracket predictions.
But this one is for the dreamers (and doubters) of all eight teams, as we make the case for and against every team and their Super Bowl odds entering the divisional round.
Super Bowl odds entering NFL divisional round
Here are the latest Super Bowl odds from the best Super Bowl betting sites entering the NFL Divisional Round.
Don't miss our guide for how to bet on NFL or this week's best sportsbook promos to help boost your profit on your NFL picks during the divisional round.
Who will win the Super Bowl?
All teams listed in order of their NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites.
Detroit Lions (+295)
Best odds: +295 via Caesars | Implied probability: 25.32%
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Why the Lions will win the Super Bowl
There's a reason Detroit enters the divisional round as the Super Bowl favorite, and it's not just the trick plays or Jahmyr Gibbs touchdown runs that circulate across social media every week.
Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is the hottest coaching candidate in the hiring cycle for the second year running, and he has the Lions' offense humming to the tune of 33.2 points per game and a 49.3% success rate - both the best mark in the NFL.
Detroit beat teams by more than 13 points on average, and it ended the year with a demoralizing victory over the 14-win Minnesota Vikings that seemingly lingered to the next week for Minnesota. This is a juggernaut, and the road to the NFC Championship runs through Ford Field.
Why the Lions won't win the Super Bowl
They say the best ability is availability, and that has been in short supply for the Lions virtually the entire season - especially on the defensive end.
Star pass-rusher Aidan Hutchinson hit injured reserve months ago, and fellow starters Alim McNeill, Derrick Barnes, and Malcolm Rodriguez have joined him since then. Starting linebacker and captain Alex Anzalone broke his forearm in Week 11 but will be on the field after returning in Week 18.
The Lions have already won a franchise-record 15 games, and winning three more will require a level of depth and versatility that Detroit just might not have at this point in the season. That's to say nothing of overcoming the demons from last year's collapse in the NFC title game.
Kansas City Chiefs (+350)
Best odds: +350 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 22.22%
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Why the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl
The Chiefs haven't played their best football this season even as they cruised to another AFC West title, and we'll have to see if they can find another gear in the postseason if they hope to repeat as Super Bowl champions.
If that sounds familiar, it's because we all said the same exact thing last year at this time. And, like clockwork, Patrick Mahomes flipped a switch in January and Andy Reid made the most of his secondary players into February to hoist a second straight Lombardi Trophy.
Who are we to doubt Kansas City a third time around? The Chiefs won even more games this year (15) than last year (11) and face an easier road back to the Big Game with a bye last week and home-field advantage over the next two rounds. Oh, and their starting lineup is as healthy as it's been all season coming off two weeks' rest.
Why the Chiefs won't win the Super Bowl
At a certain point, it would be nice to see a flash of the old Chiefs before penciling them in for a third straight title, right? It feels like every game has been a slog for Kansas City, which finished with a perfect 11-0 record in games decided by eight or fewer points - many of them coming down to a doink, a fumble, a missed penalty, or the like.
It's fair to acknowledge this is nothing new for the Chiefs, who have won 16 consecutive one-score games and have been historically good in such contests in the Mahomes era. But they've also never ranked lower in points (15th), yards (16th), and scoring differential (11th) under Mahomes while outscoring teams by their lowest average margin (3.5 points).
It's tempting to suggest this version of Kansas City is either lying in wait for its postseason prey or is actually as mediocre as its differential suggests. The answer is likely somewhere in between - is that good enough to win it all?
Philadelphia Eagles (+450)
Best odds: +450 via BetRivers | Implied probability: 18.18%
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Why the Eagles will win the Super Bowl
Philadelphia nearly beat Kansas City in the Super Bowl two years ago, and this year's roster is even more terrifying than the one that took home an NFC Championship.
Saquon Barkley has made all the difference for this Eagles offense, rushing for over 2,000 yards to run away with the NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds. Wideouts A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith complement that lethal rushing attack as the best receiving duo in the postseason - and possibly the entire league - with a seasoned Jalen Hurts running the show.
And then there's the defense, which ranks first in yards allowed per game (278.4) and per play (4.7) and second in opponent points per game (17.8 PPG), opponent EPA per play (-0.1), and success rate allowed (39%). Vic Fangio's group has churned out breakout stars like Zack Baun and Jalen Carter while limiting big plays and forcing turnovers at the fifth-highest rate (14.1%).
Why the Eagles won't win the Super Bowl
If Hurts isn't throwing the ball downfield with conviction, can the Eagles go all the way? That's a legitimate concern after the fifth-year quarterback completed 13 passes for 131 yards in the wild-card round with none exceeding 28 yards.
Hurts hasn't needed to do much this season with the run game producing at a historic rate, and Philly has won 11 consecutive games in which he finished healthy. But they haven't all been pretty, and this defense isn't exactly chock-full of elite playmakers even with such impressive numbers against one of the NFL's easiest schedules.
There's a ruggedness in the way the Eagles tend to grind out wins, but that's a quality shared by the NFC's top seed and some of the best teams in the AFC. Can that sustain over the next three games, and will it be enough to finish a job incomplete from two years ago?
Baltimore Ravens (+475)
Best odds: +475 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 17.39%
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Why the Ravens will win the Super Bowl
Baltimore headlines my Super Bowl predictions entering the divisional round, and it's a pretty easy case to make: this is the most complete team in the NFL by virtually every key metric with the most prolific player on the planet leading the way.
The Ravens left separation between them and the rest of the pack in terms of net yards per play (1.6) and net EPA per play (0.27), and they closed the regular season with four straight wins by at least 17 points before blasting the Pittsburgh Steelers in the wild-card round.
With so much focus on the NFL MVP odds ahead of Ravens vs. Bills, Lamar Jackson just keeps stacking impressive performances each week in the midst of the best season yet for the two-time MVP winner - surrounded by his best supporting cast, too. With the defense finally rounding into dominant form, this feels like the year for Baltimore.
Why the Ravens won't win the Super Bowl
While the Ravens took on a top-10 schedule this year on paper, they didn't exactly face a murderer's row over the last month of the season when they turned things around.
Before that run, Baltimore was staring down some serious concerns with its offensive line and secondary depth. The former seems to have developed into a strength, but increased level of competition will test that, while the latter remains an issue. The more you hear cornerback Brandon Stephens' name on Sunday, the worse it'll be for the Ravens.
This team faces the toughest remaining path to New Orleans with a road trip to Buffalo this week and likely Kansas City next week before potentially facing the NFC champion. The last time Jackson started a playoff game away from M&T Bank Stadium? It ended in a 17-3 loss to the Bills four years ago.
Buffalo Bills (+550)
Best odds: +550 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 15.38%
Why the Bills will win the Super Bowl
Buffalo entered this season with a new-look roster ahead of a potential rebuilding phase, and it ended the regular season with a franchise-record 13 wins and fifth straight AFC East division title.
That's a testament to the brilliance of Josh Allen, who put the team on his back with a career-best 28:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a league-leading 77.5 QBR. He's also been sacked a career-low 2.82% of the time, while running back James Cook has scored an NFL-best 17 rushing touchdowns between the regular season and playoffs.
Everything is clicking right now for the Bills, who welcome the Ravens into Highmark Stadium this weekend after dropping 31 points on the Denver Broncos and their top-ranked defense by EPA in the wild-card round. Allen has been playing at a Super Bowl level for years in the postseason, and this could be the year it finally pays off.
Why the Bills won't win the Super Bowl
Notice how I didn't mention anything about the Bills' defense? That's because a Buffalo title run would likely come in spite of that unit, not because of it.
Buffalo ended the regular season ranked 13th in opponent EPA per play (-0.01) and 16th in success rate allowed (43.6%). It sits outside the top 20 in sack rate (6.1%) and ranks seventh-worst in Eckel rate (51.4%), which measures how often an opponent has a "quality possession" with a touchdown or a first down inside the 40-yard line.
The Bills' saving grace has been a league-best turnover rate (17.5%), which is notoriously fickle in the postseason, and their defense lacks depth up front ahead of a rematch with a team that ran on them for 271 yards in Week 4. That seems like a problem.
Los Angeles Rams (+2000)
Best odds: +2000 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 4.76%
Why the Rams will win the Super Bowl
Los Angeles is my dark-horse pick to win the NFC and even make a run at another Super Bowl victory after Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford teamed up for one four years ago.
It feels like the general public is already forgetting about the value of having a proven winner at those two spots, even after the Rams dismantled the Vikings in the wild-card round. That was Los Angeles' 10th win in its last 12 games (excluding a Week 18 contest with backups) after shaking off an injury-plagued 1-4 start.
This offense might be even more versatile and dangerous than the one Stafford led to the promised land in his first year in L.A., and the defense has feasted on big plays after producing nine sacks and two turnovers last week. When everything is going right for this team, it's easy to see the path to another Lombardi Trophy.
Why the Rams won't win the Super Bowl
Even as one of the most optimistic Rams backers around, it's hard to overlook that this defense is largely playing over its skis - and those types of units historically tend to come crashing down in the postseason.
Los Angeles' defense is the cheapest in the NFL ($39.5 million) with just one first-round pick in Jared Verse, who closed as the favorite by the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds. That group has worked wonders as of late, allowing fewer than 10 points in four straight games with the starters, but it also allowed 42 points to Buffalo before that.
Injuries have been a problem for the Rams, and their best players on offense are on the wrong side of 30. Can this team hold up over the final three games with a volume-heavy approach on offense and a chaotic formula on defense?
Washington Commanders (+3300)
Best odds: +3300 via BetRivers | Implied probability: 2.94%
Why the Commanders will win the Super Bowl
Nobody expected Washington to make the playoffs entering this season, let alone threaten a legitimate Super Bowl run. So why bet against this team now?
Jayden Daniels has been truly sensational as a rookie, ranking fourth in QBR (70.5) amid a 12-5 campaign, and he dazzled in his playoff debut with 268 passing yards and two touchdowns while being sacked just once by the blitz-happy Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
He was the main reason why the Commanders' offense ranked fourth in EPA per play (0.12) and success rate (47.7%), while head coach Dan Quinn deserves credit for a defense that ranked sixth in sack rate (7.5%) and made massive strides from a season ago.
Why the Commanders won't win the Super Bowl
That impressive turnaround from Washington's defense still doesn't exclude it from consideration as the worst unit left in the NFL playoffs.
The Commanders gave up too many big plays in the regular season thanks to a boom-or-bust secondary that didn't exactly deliver the "boom" - their seven interceptions were tied for the fourth-fewest in the NFL. So was their average depth of target allowed (8.56), though most teams chose to attack a rush defense that ranked in the top five in yards allowed per attempt (4.8) and per game (137.5).
Forcing Daniels to play catch-up is good for TV ratings but bad for the way that offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury wants to operate, which centers around a conservative approach in the pass game with an active QB run game and calculated deep shots. If Washington is forced off-schedule early and has to stop the run to get back into it, things could unravel quickly.
Houston Texans (+5500)
Best odds: +5500 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 1.79%
Why the Texans will win the Super Bowl
This is the toughest case to make, but it's also the most straightforward: the Texans need to play a brand of football that predates when the franchise was born.
Running back Joe Mixon led the way in Houston's 32-12 win over the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild-card round, turning 25 carries into 106 yards and a touchdown to settle an offense that completed just two passes of at least 15 yards. Both went to Nico Collins, who is the only quality option left for a passing offense ravaged by injury.
Even with two of his top targets on the shelf, Stroud still finished with 282 yards and a score while completing 22 of his 33 attempts (66.7%) - his second-best mark across his last six full starts. And with All-Pro cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. and star edge-rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson anchoring the defense, this team won't go away quietly.
Why the Texans won't win the Super Bowl
Houston entered the season among the title favorites, but this simply isn't the same team after losing Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell to season-ending injuries. Safeties Jalen Pitre and Jimmie Ward are also out for the year for a snakebitten roster entering the divisional round.
Even if those players were healthy, would this team be in the same conversation as the other three left standing in the AFC? All three are built like juggernauts with All-Pro quarterbacks and experienced defenses; Stroud has regressed in his second year, and the defense has stars in key spots but remains a mostly unproven group.
The best case for a Texans run might simply be leaning into variance, which is always the best approach for ultra-long shots. Houston needs to shorten the game against Kansas City to have a shot at knocking off the defending champs. If it can make that contest into a series of coin flips and win nearly all of them ... well, it'll have to do it again twice more.
Divisional round expert picks
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NFL playoff bracket: Divisional Round
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