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Steelers vs. Ravens Prediction, Picks & Best Bets Today: NFL Week 16

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 21, 2024 1:35 PM EST • 4 min 5 sec read.

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris leaps over Philadelphia Eagles safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and we offer our top Steelers vs. Ravens prediction.
Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris leaps over Philadelphia Eagles safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Photo by Bill Streicher via Imagn Images.

The lead in the AFC North is on the line in this special Saturday afternoon clash between the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens, with kick-off expected for 4:30 p.m. ET (FOX) from M&T Bank Stadium.

The Steelers have owned this rivalry recently, winning eight of the last nine matchups. Pittsburgh won 18-16 in Week 11.

However, most of those matchups have been close, as five of the last seven were decided by three or fewer points.

If the Steelers hold on for another victory on Saturday, they'll clinch the AFC North. However, if the Ravens get revenge for that Week 11 defeat, they'll clinch a playoff berth and everything will be to play for in the division.

Our Steelers vs. Ravens prediction expects this to be a very rare beatdown in this rivalry.

For a look back at how we viewed this game at the beginning of the week, check out our Steelers vs. Ravens early picks as part of our NFL Week 16 predictions.

Steelers vs. Ravens predictions

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Ravens -6.5 (+100 via bet365) vs. Steelers ⭐⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Najee Harris Over 47.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Steelers vs. Ravens ATS prediction: Week 16

Ravens to cover the spread: -6.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +100 via bet365 | Implied probability: 50%

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Going against history

Pittsburgh is 6-0 SU in its last six games against Baltimore as an underdog. And Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has covered the spread in 83% of divisional games as a ‘dog in Week 5 or later.

But the Steelers lately give me no confidence in backing them.

Pittsburgh has feasted on weaker opponents

The Steelers have drastic splits when breaking down their statistics based on opponent record.

Against teams over .500, Pittsburgh has averaged 18.4 points per game and 160.4 passing yards per game. It also has scored a touchdown on just 38% of its red-zone possessions, while Russell Wilson has totaled just a 37.5 QBR. 

Against teams under .500, Pittsburgh has averaged 27.1 points and 220.3 passing yards per game. And in those games, its red-zone touchdown percentage has spiked to 50%, while Wilson has a 66.0 QBR.

Steelers injuries are a concern

T.J. Watt left last week’s game in the fourth quarter with an ankle injury, though he's expected to play this week.

Meanwhile, the Steelers' offense has looked miserable without George Pickens the last two weeks, and they will be without him again Saturday.

When Russell Wilson has had Pickens on the field this year, he has 195 dropbacks while totaling a 67 QBR. He has also averaged 7.9 air yards per attempt, and completed 29 passes of 20-plus yards. 

When Pickens is off the field, Wilson has a 32 QBR on 70 dropbacks. And Wilson does not push the field downfield as often without Pickens, with six completions of 20-plus yards and a 6.3 air yards per attempt average.

The Steelers will need a more dynamic offense when facing Lamar Jackson, who is coming off his fifth career game with five-plus touchdowns and zero interceptions.

NFL Saturday expert picks

Steelers vs. Ravens best pick

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Najee Harris Over 47.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%

With gusty winds that will make it feel like it is in the mid-20s on Saturday, I expect Pittsburgh to lean on its running game, even if it has not been very successful of late.

In Harris’ four games against divisional opponents this year, he has run the ball 16 times in each. That volume allowed him to turn a paltry 3.5 yards per carry average against the Ravens in Week 11 into 63 rushing yards.

Harris saw a season-low six carries last week. But that was mostly based on negative game script, and likely because Tomlin wanted to save more of his bullets for this week’s all-important divisional clash.

Baltimore has allowed two rushing touchdowns in its last eight games against the Steelers. So while Harris is not a great play to find the end zone, I am backing this play with four stars of confidence, believing he should get enough sheer volume to cash this Over.

Over backers are getting the best price and number at bet365. Caesars is on the high end of the market charging -120 in juice to back the Over of 49.5.

Steelers vs. Ravens odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Steelers vs. Ravens live odds

Steelers vs. Ravens opening odds:

  • Steelers: +6.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
  • Ravens: -6.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

Steelers vs. Ravens odds movement

There's been limited movement on this game's spread, but we have seen significant action on the total after the previous matchup between these teams didn't feature much scoring.

Bettors backed the Under throughout the week on what was perhaps an inflated total, which has created an opening for those who expect more offense in this rematch.

Steelers vs. Ravens injuries

Steelers vs. Ravens game info

  • When: Saturday, Dec. 21
  • Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET 
  • Where: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore)
  • How to watch: FOX
  • Weather: 21 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph NW
  • Favorite: Ravens -6.5 (-105 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”