Saints vs. Packers Prediction, MNF Picks & Odds: Monday Night Football
The Green Bay Packers are one of two double-digit favorites in the NFL during Week 16 when they host the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football.
- New Orleans announced Spencer Rattler is starting at quarterback as Derek Carr remains sidelined
- The Saints were a two-point conversion away from upsetting the Commanders last week
- Green Bay can clinch a playoff berth with a win in primetime
The Monday Night Football odds list Green Bay as a 14-point home favorite, and our Saints vs. Packers prediction has confidence in Green Bay, despite big favorites' traditional struggles on MNF.
Best Saints vs. Packers picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Packers -14 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Saints ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Josh Jacobs to score 2+ touchdowns (+215 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Saints vs. Packers against the spread prediction: Monday Night Football
Packers to cover the spread: -14 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
Jordan Love is playing his best football
Jordan Love threw his 11th interception in Week 11 during a road game against the Bears, which matched his season total from last year. But Love has not thrown an interception in the four games since, and he's tossed seven touchdowns.
The four-game streak without an interception for Love is tied for the second-longest of his career. While most quarterbacks would be impacted by the elements this late in the year, Love thrives in December and January.
Love ranks first among all quarterbacks in QBR (80), second in touchdown-to-interception ratio (16:1), third in completion percentage (71%), and fifth in passing yards per game (249) among quarterbacks who played a minimum of five games during the aforementioned months over the last two seasons
Where will New Orleans generate offense from?
Both Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara have been ruled out for the Monday night contest, two devastating blows for New Orleans. The Saints have scored 19 points or fewer in three straight games. Scoring gets tougher when teams trot out a trio of Kevin Austin Jr., Dante Pettis, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling as their top playmakers.
Going against ATS history
Shockingly enough, the last two teams to kick off as 13-point favorites or higher on Monday Night Football have lost outright. Favorites of two touchdowns are 1-7-1 ATS on MNF over the last 13 years.
However, Green Bay has taken care of business against teams with a losing record this season. It is 7-0 straight up and 5-2 ATS against sub-.500 teams, and Matt LaFleur is unbeaten in 10 straight games against teams with a losing record.
Not only does New Orleans currently have its worst winning percentage (.357) since the 2005 season, but I have no confidence in a dome team battling the frigid elements in Green Bay with its playoff hopes evaporated.
FanDuel was the only best sportsbook to move to -14.5 with the news that Kamara would be out, so I am backing this wager at BetMGM before it follows suit with the higher point spread.
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Saints vs. Packers player prop
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Josh Jacobs to score two or more touchdowns (+215) ⭐⭐⭐
Josh Jacobs is the third-leading rusher in the league. He faces a Saints defense on Monday night that ranks 27th in rushing yards per game allowed. New Orleans’ run defense is also ranked 30th by DVOA.
Nine of Jacobs’ 12 rushing touchdowns have come within the last five games, and we are getting great value for him to find the end zone twice in a game where the Packers have a projected team total of 27.5 points.
Jacobs has as steep as -278 anytime touchdown odds (carrying a 73.54% implied probability) at Caesars, so there is great value at DraftKings’ +215 odds for him to score twice. A $10 winning wager would return a profit of $21.50.
Best odds: +215 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 31.75%
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Saints vs. Packers odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Saints vs. Packers injuries
Monday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Saints vs. Packers
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wis.)
- How to watch: ABC/ESPN
- Weather: 25 degrees, 2% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph NW
- Favorite: Packers -14 (-110 via BetMGM)
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