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Ravens vs. Bills Prediction, Picks & Odds Tonight: NFL Divisional Round

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 19, 2025 3:49 PM EST • 4 min 16 sec read.

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook runs for a first down against the San Francisco 49ers as we look at our Ravens vs. Bills prediction.
Buffalo Bills running back James Cook runs for a first down against the San Francisco 49ers. Photo by Mark Konezny/Imagn Images.

The final spot in the AFC Championship Game is on the line during a clash of powerhouse teams in the conference, with the Buffalo Bills hosting the Baltimore Ravens.

Oddsmakers are making it a coin-flip matchup, and our Ravens vs. Bills prediction factors in Buffalo being a home underdog (+1.5) for the first time since the 1970 merger. The 35-10 thumping the Bills took at the hands of Baltimore earlier this season is surely contributing to that status.

The weather forecast calls for conditions that are predictably frosty, but relatively tame for mid-January in Buffalo, with modest winds and not a significant chance of precipitation at game time.

That bodes well for the Ravens in their attempt to hand Buffalo its first home defeat of the campaign, with the game starting at 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday from Highmark Stadium and airing on CBS/Paramount+.

Ravens vs. Bills predictions

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Bills +1.5 (-115 via FanDuel) vs. Ravens ⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Rashod Bateman Under 45.5 receiving yards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Ravens vs. Bills ATS prediction: NFL Divisional Round

Bills to cover the spread: +1.5 ⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Buffalo is much healthier in this rematch

Baltimore ran for 271 yards on eight yards per rush during the trumping of the Bills in Week 4, with Derrick Henry leading the way while racking up 199 yards. But Buffalo was missing several key defensive players during that matchup who will make a significant difference now.

Buffalo didn't feature middle linebacker Matt Milano in the first meeting, and the team was also missing Terrell Bernard and Taron Johnson, both of whom are quality run defenders.

Among the remaining playoff teams, only the Rams and Commanders allowed more regular-season rushing yards per game than the Bills. But Buffalo has given up the eighth-fewest yards per rush since Milano made his season debut in Week 13.

The Bills will be difficult to game plan for now

Buffalo will be difficult to prepare for this week on both sides of the ball.

The Bills became the fourth team to produce 250-plus passing yards and 200-plus rushing yards in a single game over the previous 25 postseasons last week. Knowing they need to respect Buffalo’s running game should give the Ravens fits. 

And the Bills have been tweaking their defensive philosophy lately. Buffalo used man coverage on 29% of its defensive snaps between Weeks 1 and 15 (that increased to 35% in Week 4 against Baltimore). But since then the Bills have upped their man coverage usage to 40%.

Lamar Jackson’s second playoff game struggles

Jackson has never won two games during a single postseason. Jackson is 0-2 straight up during his second game of a postseason while posting a 44 QBR, a 56.0 completion percentage, and a 1:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

FanDuel is alone among our best NFL prop betting sites while charging less than -118 juice to back the Bills at +1.5. I'm taking the extra half-point over all the other books with the spread at +1 for one of my divisional round predictions.

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Ravens vs. Bills best pick

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Rashod Bateman Under 45.5 receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -113 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.05%

Ravens leading receiver Zay Flowers is doubtful to play on Sunday, which will make Bateman the No. 1 option among wide receivers for Baltimore. But I prefer to fade Bateman through his receiving yards total, even though he did haul in a touchdown pass last week.

Jackson has faced a Sean McDermott-coached defense four times, and he's never surpassed 162 passing yards.

I also expect Buffalo to switch up its defensive philosophy in this matchup after blitzing Jackson at the fourth-lowest rate he's seen in a game this year (25%) in Week 4.

Jackson also seems to hold more confidence in his legs than his arm under the brightest spotlights, as he's run for 54-plus yards in six of seven career postseason games. 

Under backers will find the best number at FanDuel, as the total is as low as 43.5 at several of our other NFL parlay betting sites.

Ravens vs. Bills line movement

Unlike the rest of the games this weekend in the divisional round odds that featured a spread hovering around a touchdown or more prior to kickoff, this one has been tight since opening.

The line has generally not grown larger than 2 points for whichever team is favored. However, the favorite did shift at many of the best sportsbooks early in the process, with the Bills moving from needing to cover about 1 point to getting around the same as the very slight underdogs.

Meanwhile, the total hasn't moved much since the opening number, and it mostly sits at 51 or 51.5 still, with oddsmakers expecting a relatively high-scoring affair. The game is getting the second-highest total of divisional-round weekend.

Ravens vs. Bills predictions

Ravens vs. Bills odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Ravens vs. Bills live odds

Ravens vs. Bills opening odds:

  • Ravens: +1 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Bills: -1 (-110 via BetMGM)

Ravens vs. Bills injuries

Ravens vs. Bills game info

  • When: Sunday, Jan. 19
  • Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. ET 
  • Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, NY)
  • How to watch: CBS/Paramount+
  • Weather: 7 degrees, 88% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph N
  • Favorite: Ravens -1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”