Ravens vs. Bills Expert Picks: Player Props, Touchdown Predictions & More
A clash of AFC juggernauts takes place on Sunday night at Highmark Stadium in Buffalo at 6:30 p.m. ET, with the Bills hosting the Baltimore Ravens.
The Ravens enter as a slight favorite at -1, and we're breaking the matchup down further in our Ravens vs. Bills expert picks, which feature a selection against the spread, player props, and an anytime touchdown scorer prediction.
The winner will advance to the AFC Championship Game next Sunday and travel to face the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.
Ravens vs. Bills expert picks: Divisional round
Odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Against the spread pick: Bills +1.5 (-115 via FanDuel) vs. Ravens ⭐⭐
- Player prop pick: Derrick Henry Over 96.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Touchdown scorer prediction: Khalil Shakir to score a touchdown (+190 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
Don't miss Phil Wood's Ravens vs. Bills parlay picks for a shot at a +600 payday!
Best Ravens vs. Bills picks
Bills to cover the spread: +1.5 ⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Baltimore ran for 271 yards on eight yards per rush during the trumping of the Bills in Week 4, with Derrick Henry leading the way while racking up 199 yards. But Buffalo was missing several key defensive players during that matchup who will make a significant difference now.
Buffalo didn't feature middle linebacker Matt Milano in the first meeting, and the team was also missing Terrell Bernard and Taron Johnson, both of whom are quality run defenders.
Among the remaining playoff teams entering the weekend, only the Rams and Commanders allowed more regular-season rushing yards per game than the Bills. But Buffalo has given up the eighth-fewest yards per rush since Milano made his season debut in Week 13.
Buffalo will also be difficult to prepare for this week on both sides of the ball.
The Bills became the fourth team to produce 250-plus passing yards and 200-plus rushing yards in a single game over the previous 25 postseasons last week. Knowing they need to respect Buffalo’s running game should give the Ravens fits.
And the Bills have been tweaking their defensive philosophy lately. Buffalo used man coverage on 29% of its defensive snaps between Weeks 1 and 15 (that increased to 35% in Week 4 against Baltimore). But since then the Bills have upped their man coverage usage to 40%.
Meanwhile, Jackson has never won two games during a single postseason. Jackson is 0-2 straight up during his second game of a postseason while posting a 44 QBR, a 56.0 completion percentage, and a 1:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
FanDuel is alone among our best NFL prop betting sites while charging less than -118 juice to back the Bills at +1.5. I'm taking the extra half-point over all the other books with the spread at +1 for one of my divisional round predictions.
Ravens vs. Bills prediction made by Mike Spector.
Derrick Henry Over 96.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Henry has rushed for at least 138 yards in four consecutive games, averaging 5.4-plus yards per carry in each contest. He's averaging 5.9 yards per carry this season.
While the Bills’ run defense finished the campaign ranked 12th, a lot of the unit's success came because the team was winning. The opposition was successful when it used the run, with the Bills ranking 19th in yards allowed per attempt.
Though the Bills’ rush defense is much better than it was when these two teams met earlier this season, Henry is playing on another level right now.
He averaged 8.3 yards per carry in the first meeting. He won’t hit that number this week, but it’s hard to imagine a Bills defense that sits in the bottom half of the league holding him under his season average of 5.9.
Ravens vs. Bills player prop picks made by Phil Wood.
Bills anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Khalil Shakir ⭐⭐
Best odds: +190 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 34.48%
Khalil Shakir was the only player in last week’s Broncos-Bills matchup to record six receptions, and he did so while hauling in all six of his targets.
Shakir was Josh Allen’s favorite receiver all season, as his 100 targets were 25 more than Dalton Kinkaid’s total. Shakir hasn't scored in three games, but he did hit pay dirt in back-to-back contests against playoff teams before that (the Lions and Rams).
He faces a Ravens defense that ranked 11th out of the 14 playoff teams in touchdown passes allowed, so Shakir is a great candidate to break his three-game scoring slump. Caesars also offers +190 anytime touchdown odds at the high end of the market, while DraftKings is slightly lower at +180.
Ravens vs. Bills anytime touchdown scorer predictions made by Mike Spector.
Ravens vs. Bills predictions
- Ravens vs. Bills prediction
- Ravens vs. Bills player props picks
- Ravens vs. Bills parlay picks
- Ravens vs. Bills anytime touchdown scorer predictions
- Josh Allen player props
- Lamar Jackson player props
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