Puka Nacua Picks, Predictions & Best Bets for Thursday Night Football Week 15
Puka Nacua might be the hottest receiver in the NFL right now after racking up 458 receiving yards and three touchdowns over the past month.
The Los Angeles Rams need another significant game from their young star as they look to continue their playoff push on Thursday Night Football against the San Francisco 49ers (8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video).
The Niners are the 2.5-point favorites in the Thursday Night Football odds, and Mike Spector believes they can cover that number in his Rams vs. 49ers prediction.
The game is pivotal for both the NFC West odds, and any aspirations either team holds for rising up the Super Bowl odds.
Our Puka Nacua picks for Thursday Night Football expect him to get plenty of volume once again. However, significant plays could be limited against a 49ers defense that doesn’t get beat deep very often.
Puka Nacua TNF player prop picks
NFL odds as of Thursday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Puka Nacua touchdown pick: second-half touchdown (+300 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
- Puka Nacua Over 7.5 receptions (+116 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Puka Nacua longest reception Under 26.5 yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Puka Nacua touchdown prediction vs. 49ers
Puka Nacua second-half touchdown (+300) ⭐⭐
Best odds: +300 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 25%
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After Nacua put up 162 receiving yards and two touchdowns Sunday against the Buffalo Bills, you knew it was going to be hard to find value on Nacua touchdown props this week. Sure enough, the top price I could find for a Nacua anytime touchdown against San Francisco was +125 at FanDuel, down from +145 last week against Buffalo.
However, the drastic first-half vs. second-half splits both teams are posting could provide an opportunity for a shot at a larger payout.
The Rams' offense has done most of its damage this year in the second half, averaging 13.6 points after halftime and just 8.8 before the break. Meanwhile, San Francisco is giving up 14.9 points per game in the second half, nearly double the 8.7 the Niners allow in the first half.
FanDuel is giving Nacua shorter first-half touchdown odds compared to the second half (+280 for the first half and +300 in the second half). But the season-long trends of both teams suggest that’s a mistake.
You may also want to take a shot at Nacua to score the last touchdown, which pays +850 through BetMGM and +800 at both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Meanwhile, Andrew Brennan is projecting another Rams wideout to score in his anytime touchdown scorer predictions for TNF.
And Rod Villagomez is looking toward the leading receiver on the other sideline in his first touchdown scorer predictions for Thursday Night Football.
Thursday Night Football picks
- Rams vs. 49ers prediction
- Rams vs. 49ers TNF prop bets
- Rams vs. 49ers parlay picks
- Brock Purdy picks, predictions & best bets
- Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
- First touchdown scorer predictions
Puka Nacua player props
NFL picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Puka Nacua Over 7.5 receptions (+116) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +116 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 46.3%
Even with Cooper Kupp attracting 10.1 targets per game — tied for the second-most in the NFL this year — Nacua consistently receives plenty of balls thrown his way, too.
After setting the rookie receptions record last year, Nacua is averaging 9.4 targets this season, and he's drawn at least 13 in three of his five games.
It doesn’t take much to pile up at least seven receptions with that kind of volume, which gets us right to the edge of this line. Nacua has done that in five of his last seven outings. And even though shutting down Nacua should be a focus for the 49ers' defense tonight, that’s easier said than done with Kupp to worry about too.
Most of our best NFL prop betting sites are pricing Nacua Over 7.5 receptions around even money, making the +116 at FanDuel excellent value for one of your NFL Week 15 predictions.
Puka Nacua longest reception Under 26.5 yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.3%
Nacua’s 88.5 receiving yards per game rank him fourth leaguewide. But that high average has been built with volume and not chunk plays. His average of 13.1 yards per catch ranks outside the top 40, and he’s been held without a catch of 22-plus yards in six of eight games this season.
San Francisco’s secondary coughed up plenty of big plays early in the campaign, but it's been tightening up lately. The Niners haven't given up a pass completion longer than 29 yards in their last seven outings.
Once again, FanDuel stood out among the best NFL parlay betting sites as the top place to bet this Nacua TNF prop. That book is setting its total a yard higher than the 25.5 most of our other best sportsbooks are featuring.
Phil Wood is in line with this thinking, and believes Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford won't exactly be airing it out in his Rams vs. 49ers TNF prop bets.
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