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Conference Championship Player Prop Picks: Best Odds & Prop Predictions This Week

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 26, 2025 9:23 AM EST • 5 min 5 sec read.

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce celebrates a catch against the Houston Texans as we offer our conference championship player prop picks.
Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce celebrates a catch against the Houston Texans. Photo by Denny Medley via Imagn Images

This weekend, the two NFL Conference Championship matchups are rematches of games played in the regular season, providing plenty of data to help make our best NFL Conference Championship player prop picks.

We went 3-1 last week with our divisional round player props and are looking to continue the momentum with another four-pack of picks (one from each team) - featuring Brian Robinson Jr., Saquon Barkley, Josh Allen, and Travis Kelce. 

NFL player prop picks for conference championships

NFL odds subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

  • Brian Robinson Jr. prop pick: Under 37.5 rushing yards (-105 via Caesars) at Eagles ⭐⭐⭐
  • Saquon Barkley prop pick: Over 24.5 rushing attempts (-125 via DraftKings) vs. Commanders ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Josh Allen prop pick: Under 0.5 interceptions (-110 via BetMGM) at Chiefs ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Travis Kelce prop pick: Under 69.5 receiving yards (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Bills ⭐⭐⭐

NFL picks made Friday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

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Best Commanders vs. Eagles NFL player props

Brian Robinson Jr. Under 37.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -105 via Caesars | Implied probability: 51.22%

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At first glance, this looks like a curiously low total for a team’s leading running back, especially one coming off a 77-yard performance last week. But Philadelphia has already thwarted Washington’s running attack in two regular-season games.

In Week 11, Commanders running backs averaged only 3.6 yards per carry on 21 combined attempts while generating 0.62 yards before contact per rush. Those numbers dwindled in Week 16 as Washington almost completely abandoned the run.

In Week 16, Commanders running backs averaged 2.1 yards per carry and zero yards before contact per rush. And running the football will be much more difficult after losing starting guard Sam Cosmi to a torn ACL.

Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols are both healthy and should steal some touches away from Robinson, so I expect him to stay under this projected total for the fourth time in the last six games.

This total is as low as 35.5 at BetMGM, so I am taking advantage of a slightly better number while still paying less than the standard -110 juice at Caesars. Through Caesars’ -110 odds, a $10 winning wager would pay out $19.09.

Saquon Barkley Over 24.5 rushing attempts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -125 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 55.56%

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Barkley has been an absolute workhorse for the Eagles lately with 25 or more rushing attempts in four consecutive games. Why would that change now, especially after quarterback Jalen Hurts injured his knee last week?

Barkley became the second player in NFL history with multiple 60-yard rushing touchdowns in a single playoff game after running over the Los Angeles Rams last week.

His 2,329 rushing yards are the third-most in a season (including playoffs), so you can bet he will be given every opportunity to earn the 148 yards to break the record this week.

Barkley has run for 146 and 150 yards against Washington this season, and the Commanders allow a league-high 2.08 yards before contact per attempt by running backs this season. With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, we should expect the Eagles to utilize Barkley more than ever in a favorable matchup.

This O/U was as low as 23.5 earlier in the week, but I am still backing the Over of 24.5 as a confident four-star play.

Commanders vs. Eagles expert picks & predictions

Best Bills vs. Chiefs NFL player props

Josh Allen Under 0.5 interceptions ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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After last week’s win against the Ravens, Allen became the third player with 11 passing and rushing touchdowns and zero turnovers in a four-game span in NFL playoff history.

The Bills utilized a conservative passing game plan against Baltimore, as all but one of Allen’s completions last week were under 10 yards. Allen’s 5.8 air yards per attempt against the Ravens marked his lowest in a playoff game in his career, and he only averaged a slightly higher 6.3 air yards per attempt in the Week 11 win against Kansas City.

While Allen did take more shots downfield in that win over the Chiefs with four completions of 20-plus yards, I do not expect him to put the ball in harm’s way.

Allen has thrown just one interception in the last eight games, which is a big reason he has the second-highest Total QBR (77) this season. And with double-digit rushing attempts in each of the last six matchups against the Steve Spagnulo-led defense, Allen’s passing volume should be low enough for him to remain interception-free once again.

BetMGM is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering the standard -110 juice for this wager, with FanDuel on the high end with -128 odds (carrying a 56.14% implied probability). 

Travis Kelce Under 69.5 receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%

Do oddsmakers know something by setting Kelce’s O/U for receiving yards at 69.5? I ask because Kelce has topped 70 receiving yards in each of his last 14 playoff games, finishing with 93-plus receiving yards 10 times in that span - but I like the Under, anyway.

The Bills have limited Patrick Mahomes to 215 or fewer passing yards in two of the last three matchups. Buffalo has also done an outstanding job controlling time of possession, with nearly 42 and 32 minutes of possession in each of its first two playoff wins.

This is a curious line given Kelce’s playoff success, but I always prefer to be on the contrarian side. Under backers are getting the best number and price at DraftKings, as this total is as low as 67.5 (juiced to -114 to the Under) at FanDuel.

Bills vs. Chiefs expert picks & predictions

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”