NFL Week 16 Player Prop Picks: Best Odds & Props This Week
The Week 16 NFL slate has games played all throughout the weekend from Saturday through Monday, and I have scoured the remaining 15 games to amass my four best NFL Week 16 player prop picks.
- As part of our NFL Week 16 predictions, we're backing the new top running back in Cleveland
- As the Tampa Bay Buccaneers climb the Super Bowl odds, we're taking advantage by riding with Baker Mayfield
- With all the injuries for the San Francisco 49ers, Jauan Jennings has our attention this weekend
The slate is loaded this weekend, so don't forget to dive into the NFL Week 16 odds before you bet.
NFL player prop picks for Week 16
NFL odds subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Jauan Jennings prop pick: Anytime touchdown scorer (+190 via FanDuel) at Dolphins ⭐⭐⭐
- Jerome Ford prop pick: Over 45.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) at Bengals ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Tua Tagovailoa prop pick: Under 249.5 passing yards (-115 via BetMGM) vs. 49ers ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Baker Mayfield prop pick: Mayfield 3+ passing touchdowns (+275 via DraftKings) at Cowboys ⭐⭐⭐
NFL picks made Friday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Best NFL player props this week
Jauan Jennings anytime touchdown scorer ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +190 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 34.48%
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The 49ers are typically known for their bruising running game. But with the team down to basically Patrick Taylor Jr. as their only healthy running back, look for San Francisco to air it out more down the stretch.
In the last three games, Miami has allowed five touchdowns to opposing teams’ No. 1 wide receivers (Nico Collins, Davante Adams, Jayden Reed).
While teammate Deebo Samuel’s seven targets in Week 15 were tied for his most since Week 2, Jennings has 16 more targets and receptions and five more receiving touchdowns than Samuel in one fewer game played.
We are netting a potential profit of $3.50 more on a winning $10 wager by making this wager at FanDuel, as DraftKings offers worse +165 anytime touchdown odds.
Jerome Ford Over 45.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Ford made the most of his limited opportunities last week, turning nine touches into 104 yards. With this being Ford's first game with Nick Chubb on IR with a foot injury, Ford should cruise over this projected total with more work.
Ford has 60 or more scrimmage yards in two of his last three games. He gets a great matchup against a Bengals defense that ranks in the bottom three in explosive run rate and bottom-11 in rushing yards per game allowed since Week 10.
Cincinnati has allowed 44 scrimmage touchdowns and the third-most rushing touchdowns this season. That had me contemplating backing Ford’s +130 anytime touchdown odds at DraftKings.
However, there is too much value to pass up with this O/U on rushing yards, as Caesars’ projected total of 50.5 is much higher.
Tua Tagovailoa Under 249.5 passing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Tua Tagovailoa is coming off a career-high four-turnover game against the Houston Texans last week. That is likely to make him gunshy in this matchup.
If Tagovailoa is going to continue to struggle when targeting Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who's doubtful, his ceiling is incredibly low.
In Weeks 1-14 when targeting those two, Tagovailoa completed 75% of his passes, had a 7-1 TD-INT ratio, averaged 10.1 yards per attempt, and was off-target on 16% of his passes.
Last week when targeting Hill and Waddle, Tagovailoa’s completion percentage plummeted to 22% while posting a 0-3 TD-INT ratio. He also averaged a paltry 4.0 yards per attempt and was off-target on 44% of such passes.
Under backers are getting a great number at BetMGM, as FanDuel is on the other side of the market with an O/U of 242.5. Tagovailoa has passed for 249 or fewer yards in five of his previous nine starts.
Baker Mayfield 3+ passing touchdowns ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +275 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 26.67%
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Over the last two seasons, Baker Mayfield has an NFL-high 60 passing touchdowns (66 including the six he threw in last year’s playoffs). He currently has +700 odds at FanDuel to finish the season with the most passing touchdowns, and should add to his total this week.
Mayfield continues to air it out despite throwing five interceptions over the last three games, as he's had three-plus touchdown passes twice in that span.
He faces a Cowboys defense that has allowed the second-most receptions to wide receivers over the last four weeks, and 34 or more points in four of seven home games this season.
Mayfield’s Over of 1.5 passing touchdowns is juiced as high as -147 at Caesars, so I am taking advantage of his alternate passing touchdown total at DraftKings for a much bigger potential payout.
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