Divisional Round Player Prop Picks: Best Odds & Props This Week
The cream has risen to the top, with seven of the eight NFL playoff teams participating in the divisional round this weekend being teams that won their respective divisions.
Three of the four matchups are rematches of regular-season games, so there is plenty of data to scour to help me make my NFL Divisional Round player prop picks.
As we continue our NFL Divisional Round predictions, I highlight the matchup of the two most likely NFL MVP winners as Josh Allen faces Lamar Jackson in the fourth postseason meeting between the 1st-team and 2nd-team All-Pro quarterbacks.
NFL player prop picks for the 2025 Divisional Round
NFL odds subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Travis Kelce prop pick: Kelce Over 5.5 receptions (-132 via FanDuel) vs. Texans ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Sam LaPorta prop pick: Over 48.5 receiving yards (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Commanders ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jalen Hurts prop pick: Under 17.5 completions (-105 via BetMGM) vs. Rams ⭐⭐⭐
- Josh Allen prop pick: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-118 via FanDuel) vs. Ravens ⭐⭐⭐
NFL picks made Friday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Best NFL player props this week
Travis Kelce Over 5.5 receptions ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -132 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 56.90%
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In Kansas City’s 27-19 Week 16 win over Houston, QB Patrick Mahomes spread out his 28 completions, as four players had at least four catches.
However, three players were newcomers (rookie Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and DeAndre Hopkins). In this playoff game, I expect Mahomes to target veteran tight end Travis Kelce, his most trusted pass-catcher since he entered the league.
Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. had two interceptions against the Los Angeles Chargers and fellow defensive back Kamari Lassiter did not allow a reception as the nearest defender, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
That should have Mahomes targeting the middle of the field more and looking for mismatches with Kelce on linebackers.
I am backing Kelce to record at least six receptions but would not put anyone off his alternate line of seven-plus catches at +135 odds at DraftKings.
Sam LaPorta Over 48.5 receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Lions QB Jared Goff faced Dan Quinn last season when he was the Cowboys defensive coordinator. Quinn’s unit held Goff to a season-low 55.9% completion percentage and was one of two teams to force him into multiple interceptions.
However, Dallas’ pass rush last year was much more effective than Washington’s unit this year. And regardless, Goff still had success targeting LaPorta in last year’s matchup when he had 84 yards on a team-high seven catches and 12 targets.
Washington ranks in the bottom six of the league in yards per attempt allowed when it does not get pressure (7.8), and it just allowed an 83% completion percentage to Buccaneers signal-caller Baker Mayfield.
I expect Goff to utilize LaPorta early and often, especially if the Commanders focus more on the Lions’ running game after Jahmyr Gibbs exploded for four touchdowns in Week 18.
DraftKings is the only one of our best sports betting sites where one can back Over 48.5 yards at the standard -110 juice. This is a great number compared to the 50.5 found elsewhere in the market.
A $10 winning wager would pay out $19.09.
Jalen Hurts Under 17.5 completions ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 51.22%
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When the Eagles and Rams met in Week 12, Philadelphia ran for 314 yards, with running back Saquon Barkley accounting for a franchise record 255 yards.
While I am not suggesting the Eagles will have similar success, it should be their focus amid a low-volume passing day.
Los Angeles pressured Vikings QB Sam Darnold on 46% of his dropbacks last week and sacked him a career-high nine times. Several Rams got in on the action, as their eight players who recorded at least a half-sack were the most in a playoff game since the statistic was first tracked in 1982.
Look for Philadelphia to commit to the run to keep Hurts safe from that pressure, especially since he ranks 24th in completion percentage (45.1%) and 30th in yards per attempt (5.0) when under pressure this year.
The Under is juiced as high as -115 (carrying a 53.49% implied probability) at DraftKings, so I am taking advantage of the best price at BetMGM.
Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -118 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.13%
Excluding Week 18, when Allen was only inserted to keep his consecutive game streak alive and was removed after one play, he has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five of the last six games.
Allen is receiving elite protection from his offensive line, having taken just three sacks in the last 11 games. He has 20 touchdowns in that span, seven of which were rushing. Last week, his two touchdowns on throws of 20-plus yards downfield have encouraged me.
Allen now has 23 playoff touchdown passes, which broke Jim Kelly’s franchise record. While he has always been about the team instead of individual statistics, there will be extra motivation going against his top competition for the MVP award on the other sideline, as we lay out in our Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen comparison.
FanDuel is the only NFL betting site charging less than -120 in juice to back the Over on 1.5 passing touchdowns.
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