NFL Picks Against the Spread for Every Week 16 Game
I can't imagine many people—if anyone—predicted the Denver Broncos would have the best against-the-spread (ATS) record entering Week 16. However, they improved to 11-3 ATS with a 31-13 home win over the Indianapolis Colts.
With a 10-5-1 record, favorites enjoyed an impressive week.
- Away teams are 117-100-7 ATS after going 9-6-1 last week
- Away favorites are 48-34-5 ATS after going 5-1-1 last week
- The Super Bowl odds favorite Buffalo Bills are 9-5 ATS
Like the favorites, we had a successful 10-6 record last week and improved to 103-73-1 since Week 4. Building momentum like Josh Allen's MVP odds, here are our NFL picks against the spread for every Week 16 game.
NFL ATS picks Week 16: Every game
NFL odds via FanDuel and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos vs. Chargers (-3) | Chargers (-3) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Texans (-2.5) vs. Chiefs | Chiefs (+2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Steelers vs. Ravens (-6.5) | Ravens (-6.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Browns vs. Bengals (-7) | Bengals (-7) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Cardinals (-4.5) vs. Panthers | Cardinals (-4.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Eagles (-3.5) vs. Commanders | Eagles (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Giants vs. Falcons (-9.5) | Falcons (-9.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Titans vs. Colts (-4.5) | Titans (+4.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Lions (-7) vs. Bears | Lions (-7) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Rams (-3) vs. Jets | Rams (-3) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Vikings (-3) vs. Seahawks | Vikings (-3) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Patriots vs. Bills (-14.5) | Bills (-14.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| 49ers vs. Dolphins (-1.5) | 49ers (+1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Jaguars (+1.5) vs. Raiders | Jaguars (+1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Buccaneers (-3.5) vs. Cowboys | Cowboys (+3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Saints vs. Packers (-13.5) | Packers (-13.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
My favorite ATS picks this week
NFL picks as of Tuesday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Lions (-7) vs. Bears
Best odds: -102 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.50%
Against the Minnesota Vikings, the Chicago Bears looked like they've packed it in for the season. They've lost the two post-Matt Eberflus games by an average of 21.5 points.
Eberflus' last game in charge came against these very Lions, which the Bears lost 23-20 thanks to some ill-advised coaching decisions. But at least they kept it close.
They also kept things interesting against the Vikings at home in the first meeting but lost in overtime. Pride would be about the only thing on the line for Chicago had it not exited the building weeks ago.
The Week 16 encounter provides an ideal bounce-back spot for the Lions, who can ill-afford another setback if they are to hold off the Vikings and win the NFC North.
In addition, the Lions have failed to cover in three straight games. I can't see that streak extending to four against a team in such a discernible state of disarray.
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Rams (-3) vs. Jets
Best odds: -120 via bet365 | Implied probability: 54.55%
The Los Angeles Rams have won three straight and four of the last five and are rounding into peak form at an opportune time.
They're finally relatively healthy, and the offense, excluding the rain-soaked tilt against the San Francisco 49ers, is clicking. The Rams have the 10th-best offense via PFF while the New York Jets rank 24th defensively.
Since Week 8, when wideouts Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned, Los Angeles has the eighth-best offensive EPA per play. Gang Green, meanwhile, ranks 29th in defensive EPA per play during the same stretch.
Plus, this contest means everything to visitors, who control their own destiny in the NFC West. A victory would keep them atop the division with two games remaining. For the Jets, the writing of yet another disappointing season has already been indelibly scribed on the wall.
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Patriots vs. Bills (-14.5)
Best odds: -102 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.50%
I expect the wagon to keep rolling downhill when they host the New England Patriots. It will be cold in Buffalo, and there's a low probability of snow. But even a blizzard won't slow Josh Allen and Co., as we saw first-hand against the San Francisco 49ers.
As a road underdog of six points or more, the Patriots are 2-5. They've lost their last two road games by an average of 16 points. Conversely, the Bills are 3-1 at home as a home favorite of six or more points, with the only fail-to-cover coming against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1.
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