Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bets: Touchdown Picks & Odds vs. Bills
Patrick Mahomes leads the 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs into Orchard Park, N.Y., to take on the 8-2 Buffalo Bills.
While he's had an up-and-down season, our best Mahomes player prop bets source some appealing situational Over picks. After throwing a pick in his first seven games, he hasn’t thrown one in the last two. He’s also thrown one or fewer touchdown passes in five of his nine games.
So, what does that inconsistency mean for Mahomes when he and the Super Bowl odds favorite Chiefs travel to Orchard Park, N.Y., for a 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS) game against the favored, sizzling-hot Bills?
The below prop picks are part of our NFL Week 11 predictions, including the Chiefs vs. Bills prediction.
Patrick Mahomes prop bets Week 11
- Patrick Mahomes touchdown pick: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes Over 237.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes Over 34.5 passing attempts (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NFL odds as of Saturday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
Patrick Mahomes touchdown pick vs. Bills
Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 touchdown passes (+110) ⭐⭐⭐
After throwing multiple touchdowns in back-to-back weeks, Mahomes threw just one last week against the Denver Broncos. He has just 12 passing touchdowns in nine games, yet the best value is taking his Over against the Bills.
The Bills have the ninth-ranked scoring defense in the league, allowing just 19.3 points per game. However, it allows 0.6 rushing touchdowns and 1.3 passing touchdowns per game.
The Chiefs have scored two touchdowns in all but one game this season. Based on how the Bills play defense, if the Chiefs score two, they'll likely come through the air.
The Under ranges from -125 to -144. Because of that and the aforementioned reasons, the value is in taking the Over. You can get +100 or better at three of our best NFL prop betting sites, but FanDuel has the best price.
On the other sideline, our Gabe Henderson expects the Bills' signal-caller to score as part of his Josh Allen player prop bets.
Best odds: +110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 47.62%
New customers only. Deposit min. $5. Place first bet of $5+ and win $150 in Bonus Bets (within 72 hours).
Patrick Mahomes NFL player props
NFL picks made Saturday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Patrick Mahomes Over 237.5 passing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Mahomes has thrown for fewer than 220 yards in three games this season. In his other six games, he’s thrown for at least 245 yards. Last week, against the 10th-best pass defense in football, Mahomes threw for 266 yards.
The Bills have the 18th-ranked pass defense, allowing 212.9 passing yards per game. But they allowed Joe Flacco to throw for 272 against them last week. If the Bills get a lead, the Chiefs will have to abandon the run. But even if they don’t, Mahomes has at least 245 yards in five of his last six.
The total for this prop ranges from 237.5 to 243.5. Not only is bet365 offering the lowest total, but the sportsbook is also offering the best price for the Over.
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
Deposit required. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Patrick Mahomes Over 34.5 passing attempts (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I feel the only way Mahomes doesn’t hit this Over is if the Chiefs blow the Bills out, and I don’t see that happening. Mahomes has attempted at least 38 passes in three consecutive games, all one-score wins.
The Chiefs rank ninth in passing attempts per game, averaging 34.6 per contest. The Bills allow the eighth-most per contest, with opponents averaging 34.0 against. The Bills are favored in this game, so there’s a chance that Mahomes needs to throw more than usual. It all leads to plenty of attempts for Mahomes.
Two of the five major sportsbooks have this total set at 33.5, but they’re asking at least -127 for the Over. I’m confident enough in Mahomes to make one more attempt to get a significantly better price at BetMGM.
Best odds: +100 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 50%
Bonus bets will expire in 7 days. One new customer offer only. Additional terms and conditions apply.
Chiefs vs. Bills odds
Chiefs vs. Bills game info
- When: Sunday, Nov. 17
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 52 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph SW
- Favorite: Bills -2 (-110 via DraftKings)
NFL betting odds pages
Here are our best NFL betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
Related Articles
