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Patrick Mahomes Player Props vs. Bills: AFC Championship Prop Bet Odds & Predictions

Esten McLaren

Last Updated: January 26, 2025 12:00 PM EST • 1 min 33 sec read.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass as we look at the best Patrick Mahomes player props.
Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass. Photo by Barry Reeger-Imagn Images.

It's been a struggle this season when trying to bet Overs on Patrick Mahomes player props but another underwhelming showing last round has led to excellent value on his passing props for Sunday's AFC Championship between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills at Arrowhead Stadium (6:30 p.m. ET, CBS).

Mahomes' passing yards prop is set at 254.5 yards for Sunday's matchup with a ticket to the Super Bowl on the line. Our Andrew Brennan is backing Buffalo with his Bills vs. Chiefs prediction for the AFC Championship, but some key injuries for the visitors should help open up the struggling passing game for the two-defending Super Bowl champs.

Patrick Mahomes player prop odds vs. Bills

Patrick Mahomes player prop predictions: AFC Championship

Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. Check the latest Jayden Daniels player prop odds via our NFL props tool.

Patrick Mahomes stats

Playoff stats in parentheses.

  • 15-1 (1-0)
  • 3,928 passing yards (177)
  • 26 TD to 11 INT (1-0)
  • 307 rushing yards (14)
  • 2 rushing touchdowns (0)

Bills vs. Chiefs expert picks & predictions

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Written By:
Esten McLaren
Esten is the Senior Publishing Editor for SportsbookReview.com. He has been in the sports betting industry since the legalization of mobile sports betting in New Jersey, and with SportsbookReview prior to the launch of sports betting in Ontario. Esten's previous stops include the USA TODAY network, including GolfWeek. He previously worked in the fantasy sports industry, with FNTSY Sports Network, theScore, and USA TODAY. Esten graduated from the College of Sports Media with a diploma in Radio and Television Sports Broadcasting after acquiring a degree in Biological Sciences from the University of Guelph. He has appeared on FNTSY Sports Network, VSiN, and VSiN's Long Shots podcast, where he correctly called Will Zalatoris as the winner of the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship. Esten is a big proponent of the entertainment side of sports betting and loves to dip his toes into the novelty and alt-markets while chasing long shots with reduced wagers on golf outrights and futures markets. He's also been known to sprinkle some lunch money on touchdown-scorer parlays with two notable hits still funding his bankroll. Esten looks at sports betting much like golf and advises beginner bettors to compete against themselves rather than being concerned with what others may or may not be doing based on social media claims.