Packers vs. Lions Touchdown Picks & Odds: Week 14
It's one of the biggest games of the year on Thursday Night Football, as the Green Bay Packers visit the Detroit Lions at Ford Field in a highly anticipated NFC North clash.
We've been diving into this game all week as part of our NFL Week 14 predictions, and rightly so. The Lions are the Super Bowl odds favorites, and the Packers aren't far behind in a group of contenders.
Our Packers vs. Lions prediction expects Green Bay to cover, but our NFL picks against the spread are riding with the home favorites as one of the top bets this week. So, who will come out on top when this game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)?
Well, regardless of who wins, this game features the highest total of the week, so we're expecting plenty of scoring. It only makes sense, then, to deliver our best Packers vs. Lions touchdown picks for Week 14.
Packers vs. Lions touchdown picks
Odds as of Wednesday and subject to change.
- Jahmyr Gibbs + David Montgomery touchdown pick: Anytime touchdown scorer parlay (+203 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Tucker Kraft touchdown pick: First touchdown scorer (+1500 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Jameson Williams touchdown pick: Anytime touchdown scorer (+240 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
NFL picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Best Packers vs. Lions touchdown props
Jahmyr Gibbs + David Montgomery anytime TD parlay ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +203 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 33%
Gibbs and Montgomery - or Sonic and Knuckles - have been two of the most productive running backs in the league this season. Entering Week 14, Gibbs ranks as the RB5, and Montgomery is RB11 by half PPR fantasy points per game.
They've combined to score 22 touchdowns, managing 11 each, and they've both scored in half of the Lions' games this year.
Of course, Gibbs and Montgomery have elite TD projections this week, as is usually the case. Gibbs comes in at 0.72 while Montgomery is at 0.68, but I think narrative will play a big role in this one, too.
The Lions barely escaped Thanksgiving with a win over the Chicago Bears, and a big reason for that was their struggles in the red zone. The Lions got a little too cute, even giving offensive lineman Penei Sewell a potential pass attempt at one point.
I'm looking for Detroit to smash it in with their dynamic duo of running backs if they get in the red zone on Thursday night. A $10 winning wager here would result in better than a $20 profit.
We also like Montgomery to score the first TD of the game, as we outlined in our Packers vs. Lions TNF prop bets.
But Brenden Schaeffer is looking toward the opposing backfield as part of his Packers vs. Lions parlay picks.
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Tucker Kraft first touchdown scorer ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +1500 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 6.25%
What would an NFC North rivalry game be without a bit of chippiness? Well, thanks to Packers tight end Tucker Kraft, we're getting everything we could hope for.
If the Packers get the ball first on Thursday, I can see them using a mix of Josh Jacobs and Kraft to punish the depleted Lions defense, setting the tone for what should be a physical game.
Kraft has a solid 0.27 TD projection, but there isn't a ton of value for his anytime TD based on some relatively short odds we're seeing posted at our best sports betting sites. Therefore, let's ride with narrative a bit more than usual and bet on Kraft to find the end zone first.
I wouldn't wager a full unit on this, but the good thing is that you don't need to. Even just a $2.50 wager would result in a $37.50 profit if Kraft scores the first TD on Thursday night.
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Jameson Williams anytime touchdown scorer ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +240 via bet365 | Implied probability: 29.41%
Of course, you know we have to get some money down on one of the most explosive players in this game.
Williams drew only 10 combined targets from Weeks 3 to 7 (four games, with Week 5 being a bye) before getting suspended for two games.
However, since he's returned, he's drawn 25 targets in four games, showing the Lions are looking to get him more involved ahead of the playoffs. That makes sense, too, since he offers a much different skill set from No. 1 receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Green Bay's secondary is very strong, which is why Williams' TD projection is just 0.33. However, these +240 odds carry an implied probability of just 29.41%, so we're still getting a slight edge.
As I previously mentioned, with a total hovering around 52 points, we could be in for a shootout. It's best to take advantage of any edges you can find in such a game.
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Packers vs. Lions game info
- Matchup: Packers vs. Lions
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Ford Field (Detroit)
- How to watch: Prime Video
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Lions -3.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
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