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NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds: Daniels' Dominance Continues; Nix Takes Two Steps Back

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: December 16, 2024 4:35 PM EST • 3 min 44 sec read.

Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels passes over the New Orleans Saints line as we break down the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds entering Week 15 MNF.
Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels passes over the New Orleans Saints line. Photo by Stephen Lew via Imagn Images

Even if Caleb Williams, set to face the Minnesota Vikings on MNF, performs like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson this weekend, Jayden Daniels will remain the prohibitive Offensive Rookie of the Year odds favorite (OROY) entering Week 16. 

The Washington Commanders quarterback has built himself about the same cushion as Allen in the NFL MVP odds race.

Daniels' -750 OROY odds imply an 88.24% win probability. Compare that to his closest competitor, Bo Nix, whose +900 odds imply a 10% chance of winning.  

While the Bears' No. 1 draft pick's chances of winning OROY are about as slim as the San Francisco 49ers' playoff hopes (less than 1%), we considered what to expect from him tonight in our Williams NFL player prop predictions.  

Here's how the OROY landscape looks going into Week 15 MNF, with a look ahead to the Week 16 odds. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year odds

The Offensive Rookie of the Year odds via our best NFL prop betting sites after Week 15. See our NFL player prop odds tool for the latest odds on any player.

Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders (-750)

2024 stats: 3,045 passing yards, 17 TDs, 6 INTs (656 rushing yards, 6 TDs)

Forget his sparkling stats for a second. Let's concentrate on the fact that Daniels has spearheaded the Commanders to a 9-5 record and second place in the NFC East, widely considered before the season to be a two-horse race between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys.

I'll pause briefly to allow for the obligatory Cowboys jokes. 

Now, onto the stats. Daniels has tossed eight touchdowns in the last four games, equaling Allen's output in that stretch. PFF has him ranking first in overall offense (88.3), passing (83.8), and third in rushing (80.9), trailing Williams for second by just 0.1.  

He leads all rookie quarterbacks in rushing yards (656) and is second overall, just 87 yards behind Jackson, the world's best quarterback on the ground. He's also ahead of all rookies in passing yards, with 73 yards more than second-place Nix, and has the best completion percentage (70.5). 

To top it off, Daniels beat Joe Burrow and the admittedly disappointing Cincinnati Bengals; he walked all over the Arizona Cardinals in Arizona, came within one score of beating the Baltimore Ravens and Eagles on the road, and got one over on the player who preceded him in the draft via a Hail Mary that will be forever etched in Commanders' lore. 

Daniels: Prohibitive favorite by the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, decisive favorite by his actions. 

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Bo Nix, QB, Broncos (+900)

2024 stats: 2,972 passing yards, 20 TDs, 11 INTs (327 rushing yards, 4 TDs)

Nix was on the ascent, making life just a teensy-weensy uncomfortable for Daniels. That was until he tossed three picks against a lackluster Indianapolis Colts' pass defense. 

He did his utmost to offset the picks by connecting on three touchdown passes, making it 20 for him on the season. That's the most of the rookie signal-callers, with Daniels in second, three adrift. 

And while Nix has been instrumental in leading the Broncos to their impressive and surprising 9-5 record, he's thrown as many picks as Daniels and Williams combined (11). 

Unless he cranks it up to an unprecedented notch in his remaining three games against the Los Angeles Chargers, Bengals, and Kansas City Chiefs, he'll have to settle for bridesmaid status. 

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Brock Bowers, TE, Raiders (+1300)

2024 stats: 933 receiving yards, 87 completions, 4 TDs, 63.60 completion %

While his +1300 odds imply just a 7.14% winning probability, nothing is impossible where Brock Bowers is concerned. The Raiders tight end set a rookie reception record against the Miami Dolphins in Week 11, hauling 13 catches on 16 targets. 

He has the second-most receptions of any tight end (87), just two behind Trey McBride. Bowers is also second in receiving yards (933), trailing McBride by five. He was ahead of McBride in both categories heading into Week 15. He endured a forgettable day at the office against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 14 (three receptions for 49 yards) and faces the Atlanta Falcons on MNF tonight. 

Bowers deserves to be among the favorites and, arguably, could be just ahead of Nix in the pecking order. Unmistakably, though, Daniels appears on the horizon, way out in front. 

Caleb Williams, QB, Bears (+10000)

2024 stats: 2,746 passing yards, 16 TDs, 5 INTs (405 rushing yards, 5 TDs)

Williams' +10000 odds imply a 0.99% winning probability. So, you're saying there's a chance? 

The clear pre-season favorite is out of this race, unquestionably. That is unless he throws 500 yards and five TDs against the Vikings, the worst team at defending wide receivers. So, there is a chance...

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.