NFL MVP Odds Before Ravens' Lamar Jackson Faces Bills' Josh Allen in Divisional Round

Trying to decide whether Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen is the more deserving MVP is like choosing whether Spiderman or Superman would win in an anything-goes scrap. 

Leading up to one of the most highly anticipated divisional round contests in recent memory, which we covered in our Ravens vs. Bills early picks, the Jackson vs. Allen narrative is the most hotly debated topic, and for good reason.

Both megastars spring-boarded their teams to Super Bowl odds contenders, and neither traveled the regular-season road without facing potholes of various depths.

With that in mind, let's embark on our own 18-week journey, analyzing how Jackson and Allen's odds moved, shimmied, and shifted throughout the regular season.

The story of the NFL MVP odds race

Jackson named first-team All-Pro: What's the historical significance in MVP race?

Allen was the clear MVP odds leader when the market closed after Week 18 at our best sportsbooks. However, his -470 closing odds at FanDuel, which carried an 82.46% implied win probability, felt relatively trivial after Jackson was named the first-team All-Pro by the same voters who decided on the MVP.

I wrote that in the past tense as the designated AP voters have already cast their ballots and decided on the MVP.

Here's the bad news for those who backed Allen to win his first MVP. It's as likely for the first-team All-Pro quarterback to win MVP as it is for the Pittsburgh Steelers to choke in the playoffs over the last seven years (which, by the way, stands at 100%).  

The last 11 MVP winners were all first-team All-Pro quarterbacks. So, there's that. There are a few counterarguments, though.

Closest All-Pro vote since 2003

It was the closest first-team All-Pro vote since 2003, with Jackson securing 30 first-place votes to Allen's 18. The same 12-vote separation occurred in 2003, with Peyton Manning getting the All-Pro nod. Weeks later, he was forced to share his MVP anointment with Steve McNair, who was named co-MVP. 

As the vote was so close, Saquon Barkley, who may have broken the single-season rushing record had he played in Week 18, may help Allen by siphoning a few votes away from Jackson.

Also, being named as a first team All-Pro hasn't always metastasized into winning MVP. In 1987, John Elway won MVP despite seeing Joe Montana dubbed the first-team All-Pro weeks earlier. So, it has happened. Take solace in that 37-year-old nugget, Allen backers. 

MVP contenders' regular-season odds movement

I won't be breaking down the statistical comparison between two of the world's most freakish athletes. I've left that to our Jackson Cowart, whose analysis of Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen offers the perfect scratch for that particular itch.  

While there's no shortage of criteria to determine the winner, I'm focusing on Allen and Jackson's MVP moments, which can influence voters, especially as it's often considered a narrative-based award. 

I'm tossing Barkley into the fray even though everyone knows he won't win. He was the lead candidate until everyone snapped out of their hypnotic state, realizing this award is designated for quarterbacks and quarterbacks only. Joe Burrow's sensational statistical season also gets him a seat in the arena, albeit in the nosebleeds.

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes entered the season as the +500 favorite but gradually slid down the board despite leading the reigning Super Bowl champions back to the AFC's No. 1 seed and a first-round bye.

Let's look at the regular season's most influential moments and odds movement. 

MVP odds after Week 1 

Odds are based on the average from our best NFL betting sites

Allen's Week 1 MVP moment

Against the Arizona Cardinals, Allen registered 2+ touchdown passes and 2+ rushing touchdowns for the fourth time in his career, barreling past Cam Newton and equaling the record set by Steve Young.  

Jackson's Week 1 close shave

Would have, could have, should have. Amend the adage "lost by a nose" to "lost by a toe," and you have your Week 1 Baltimore Ravens storyline as Jackson and Co. fell 27-20 to the Kansas City Chiefs in heartbreaking fashion.  

MVP odds after Week 3

Allen's Week 3 MVP moment 

Remember Week 3? If you're a Jacksonville Jaguars fan, you won't want to. Allen shredded Jacksonville's defense, becoming the first quarterback to register four passing touchdowns in the first half of a Monday Night Football game since Ben Roethlisberger achieved the feat against the Ravens in 2007. He equaled his career-best for touchdown passes before the halftime interval. 

MVP odds after Week 4

Jackson's Week 4 MVP moment 

Jackson's Ravens dominated Allen's Bills to the tune of 35-10. While Jackson's stats (210 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, one rushing touchdown, and 54 rushing yards) don't hop off the page, his masterful game management highlighted a statement victory. I hope that one-off anomaly won't resurface in Buffalo this weekend, as I backed the home team in our NFL Divisional Round picks against the spread. 

MVP odds after Week 5

Jackson's Week 5 MVP moment 

How do four touchdown passes against fellow MVP contender Joe Burrow and his Cincinnati Bengals sound? It was the first of four games in which Jackson threw for at least four touchdowns. The Ravens prevailed in a 41-38 shootout, and Jackson's fourth-quarter heroics had a massive part to play. 

Jackson enjoyed a sizable advantage over Allen in the latter stages of games, with a 0.25 EPA in the fourth quarter. Put that gleaming stat beside Allen's comparatively piddly -0.02 EPA in the final quarter. 

MVP odds after Week 7

Jackson's Week 7 MVP moment 

It would have been better for Tampa Bay fans if their beloved Buccaneers forfeit before kickoff. Like a starving raven on a meaty carcass, Jackson went to town in Florida, tossing a casual five touchdown passes. It wasn't the only time he threw a handful of scores, and it pushed him further ahead in the rollercoaster MVP odds race.

MVP odds after Week 9

Jackson's Week 9 MVP moment 

How about a perfect passer rating to toss into the mix? In the 41-10 demolition of the Denver Broncos, Jackson went 16-for-19 for 280 yards on 14.7 yards per attempt.

He threw three touchdown passes with no turnovers, amounting to a perfect 158.3 passer rating. And Jackson got to enjoy and revel in the moment, kicking back and relaxing in the fourth quarter, watching his team complete the rout.

MVP odds after Week 10

Jackson's Week 10 MVP moment 

Cincy was again on the receiving end, culminating a dominant three-game patch for the Ravens rockstar. Jackson threw four touchdown passes for the second time against the Bengals, leading the Ravens to a 35-34 victory. While they enjoyed an admirable finish to the campaign, that devastating loss all but ended Cincinnati's playoff hopes. I can envision Lamar's face plastered on many dartboards of Bengals fans. 

MVP odds after Week 11

Allen's Week 11 MVP moment 

The tide started turning in Week 11 in the topsy-turvy MVP marathon. Jackson and the Ravens' slide coincided with Allen's ascension, with the latter conjuring the most impactful MVP moment of the season, resonating deeply with football fans. And, while I'm only postulating, it probably influenced MVP voters, too.  

The famous fourth-and-two Allen scamper showcased his instincts, power, speed, agility, and bravado. His 26-yard locomotive-like gallop to pay dirt ended Kansas City's undefeated run and emphatically bull-rushed Allen back atop the MVP odds leaderboard. 

MVP odds after Week 13

Allen's Week 13 MVP moment 

Snowmageddon in Buffalo featured a disheveled San Francisco 49ers and a hyped-up Allen, who raised the bar even higher after his magical moment against the Chiefs. Allen caught his own touchdown pass in a play that will forever live in the annals of the NFL's best-of highlight reel. 

MVP odds after Week 14

Allen's Week 14 MVP moment 

Despite losing 44-42 to the Los Angeles Rams, Allen became the first quarterback to score three rushing touchdowns and three passing touchdowns in the same game. He also chipped in with 424 yards. Not bad in a losing effort.  

MVP odds after Week 15

Jackson's Week 15 MVP moment

The Ravens' bye week gave Jackson time to decompress, take a step back and recalibrate. He was visibly frustrated after Baltimore's Week 13 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles and wasn't making excuses. Jackson harnessed that pent-up energy and returned like a man possessed. 

Jackson threw five touchdown passes for the second time during the regular season. Admittedly, they came against a New York Giants team that often had more things in common with a college squad. Nonetheless, it was a commanding performance that gave hold-on-a-minute vibes to the MVP narrative. 

Allen's Week 15 MVP moment

Beating the Detroit Lions at Ford Field is an admirable accomplishment on its own. Couple that with the Bills quarterback going off for another four touchdowns (two rushing and two passing) and 430 total yards, and you can see why his implied probability exceeded 90%. And did I mention he ended the Lions' franchise-record 11-game win streak?

MVP odds after Week 18

Jackson's Week 18 MVP moment

Jackson curb-stomped his way through the final four weeks of the regular season, leading his Ravens to a 4-0 record while outscoring the Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans, and Cleveland Browns by a combined 135-43. He had 12 touchdown passes, ran for one and threw just one pick. 

The theme of our MVP odds after Week 18 piece was "Jackson makes a final case to repeat." He certainly left it all on the field, and if the All-Pro team selection and its resounding historical support is anything to go by, he may have pipped Allen at the line by a nose, or should I say a toe?

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