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NFL MVP Odds: Can Anyone Catch Josh Allen After Another Sterling Performance?

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: December 16, 2024 5:34 AM EST • 3 min 18 sec read.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen waves at fans after 48-42 win over Detroit Lions as we look at the MVP odds after Week 15.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen waves at fans after 48-42 win over Detroit Lions. Photo by Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Anyone who loves seeing players put up video game numbers surely adored Week 15, particularly where the NFL MVP odds front-runners are concerned.  

When it comes to gaudy stats, eye-popping highlights, and superhuman performances, nobody does it better than Josh Allen, whose advantage atop the MVP odds leaderboard can almost be considered insurmountable after adding four touchdowns to his resume on Sunday.

Despite Lamar Jackson tossing five touchdown passes for the second time this season, Allen's best odds (-900) at our best NFL betting sites imply a 90% win probability. 

NFL MVP odds

NFL MVP odds via our best NFL prop betting sites after Week 15. See our NFL player prop odds tool for the latest odds on any player.

Josh Allen, QB, Bills (-900)

2024 stats: 3,395 passing yards, 25 TDs, 5 INTs (484 rushing yards, 11 TDs)

Last season, Allen and Jalen Hurts tied for a league-best 15 rushing touchdowns - the most ever scored by quarterbacks. 

While he might not match that total, Allen has eight rushing touchdowns in the last five games after starting the season with three in nine. 

He has 11 rushing scores with three games remaining, placing last season's mark of 15 in play. 

Allen has 15 combined TDs in the last four games, including 10 in the previous two. Remember what I said about video game numbers? 

Allen has showcased his best at the most critical time of the season, accompanying those astonishing stats with victories. Thanks to the 48-42 win in Detroit, he lifted the Bills ahead of the Lions as the Super Bowl odds favorites. 

It would take a historic and infamous downturn for Allen to lose his Hulk-like grip on this award. 

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Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens (+750)

2024 stats: 3,580 passing yards, 34 TDs, 3 INTs (743 rushing yards, 3 TDs)

Jackson is probably the only player who can prevent Allen from winning. And if it were any other season, Jackson would be the front-runner.

The reigning MVP winner was visibly frustrated after his Ravens lost to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 13, and it came as no surprise to see him humiliate the New York Giants to the tune of five touchdown passes. 

Most people pull up their socks to improve their performance levels. But Jackson is unlike most; instead, he pulls up his pants while running for 30 yards. Against the G-Men, Jackson became the first quarterback to achieve the following: 80% completion percentage, 250 passing yards, five passing TDs, zero INTs, and 50 rushing yards.

This season, he has thrown five touchdowns twice and four touchdown passes twice. His TD:INT ratio (34-to-3) is superior to Allen's, and he has one more combined TD than his Bills counterpart with 37 entering Week 16. 

Excluding a rare dud against the Pittsburgh Steelers in which he had one passing TD and one interception, Jackson has continually produced. However, the Ravens endured an inconsistent patch, losing three of six games.

Unless he replicates his Week 15 performance in the last three contests against Pittsburgh, Houston, and Pittsburgh and receives some self-inflicted help from Allen, his sublime season won't be enough to win a third MVP. 

Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles (+1500)

2024 stats: 285 carries, 1,688 rushing yards, 11 TDs (31 receptions, 276 yards, 2 TDs)

With the elite level of competition, one slip-up is enough to, at least ostensibly, knock you out of the race. Just ask Saquon Barkley, who, against the Steelers, failed to hit the 100-yard threshold for the first time in five games and didn't hit pay dirt for the second game running. 

His comparatively subpar Week 15 outing negatively impacted his odds, which decreased from +550 to +1500.

While he's enjoying an unforgettable first season with the Eagles, seeing him break the non-quarterback MVP streak is becoming about as inconceivable as the Giants ever getting over running their franchise asset out of town. 

Jared Goff, QB, Lions (+3000)

2024 stats: 3,759 passing yards, 30 TDs, 10 INTs (60 rushing yards)  

Like the other two aforementioned quarterbacks, Jared Goff padded his stats in Week 15. The issue, however, is that it came in a losing effort against a Bills defense interested in containment and preserving the two-score advantage their quarterback facilitated. 

Goff finished the game with 494 passing yards and five touchdowns. It was his first five-touchdown performance of the season, but I'm sure that is of little consolation. Goff's odds lengthened from +1800 to +3000 after the 48-42 loss to the Bills. 

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.