Michael Penix Jr. NFL Player Prop Odds, Predictions & Best Bets vs. Giants
It's the dawn of the Michael Penix Jr. era in Atlanta, and the New York Giants (2-12) will represent the ideal welcome mat on Sunday as he takes over for the ineffective Kirk Cousins.
Cousins led the Falcons to first place in the NFC South earlier in the season, but that lead disappeared while he threw nine interceptions and just one touchdown as the team went 1-4 over five games. The eighth overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft now steps in with the Dirty Birds trailing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by one game for the division lead - and the only likely shot at a playoff berth.
Here are the best Michael Penix Jr. player prop odds, and my favorite picks for Sunday's 1 p.m. ET matchup at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta (FOX). The Falcons are 8.5-point favorites by the latest NFL Week 16 odds.
Michael Penix Jr. player prop odds vs. Giants
My best Michael Penix Jr. player prop pick: Week 16
Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Michael Penix Jr. prop pick: Under 226.5 passing yards (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
My analysis
There are about as many ways to beat the Giants as there are to skin a cat. In either case, most methods don't involve a pile of passing yards.
The Giants allow just 200.4 passing yards per game, with only six teams allowing fewer. That's not necessarily because of a good pass defense, but because they allow 143.7 rushing yards per game - more than all but the Carolina Panthers.
Expect Falcons head coach Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson to keep life extremely simple for the debuting rookie. Running back Bijan Robinson ran for four touchdowns across his last five games, and he topped 100 yards thrice in that span.
I wouldn't expect Penix to pass often in what has proven to be a very efficient matchup for quarterbacks this season.
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