Lions vs. Bears Prediction, Picks & Best Bets: NFL Week 16
The Detroit Lions look for their second season sweep of the Chicago Bears in the last three years when the two NFC North rivals meet in the NFL's Week 16.
- Detroit has done well to avoid losing streaks, winning 10 in a row following a loss
- Chicago has lost eight straight games, the third-longest active losing streak in the league
- The Lions beat the Bears at home 23-20 on Thanksgiving
Our Lions vs. Bears prediction expects the home underdogs to stay within the 6.5-point spread at our best sportsbooks, given the injuries Detroit has had recently. We also make our NFL Week 16 best bets and predictions.
Lions vs. Bears predictions
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Bears +6.5 (-105 via DraftKings) vs. Lions ⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush Over 17.5 yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Lions vs. Bears ATS prediction: Week 16
Bears to cover the spread: +6.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -105 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.22%
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Caleb Williams is improving under Brown
You wouldn’t know it from a wins and losses perspective, but Caleb Williams has improved since Thomas Brown was promoted within the organization.
Through his first nine career games, Williams had a 9:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and he completed 60% of his passes. Entering last week’s Monday Night Football matchup with Minnesota, Williams had seven touchdowns, zero interceptions and a 66% completion percentage over the previous four games.
Williams completed just 58.1% of his passes last week but still didn't turn the ball over. That extended his rookie record to 286 consecutive passes without an interception.
Detroit’s injury concerns
Detroit has a walking wounded feel, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Lions lost starting defensive tackle Alim McNeill to a season-ending knee injury, as well as two cornerbacks (Khalil Dorsey and Carlton Davis), in their last game alone
Those injuries come on the heels of 13 other defensive players who are already on the injured reserve list.
Meanwhile, Detroit’s dynamic running game received a huge blow, losing David Montgomery for the foreseeable future. That changes opposing teams’ preparation for the Lions, as they can now focus more on Jahmyr Gibbs instead of two different skill sets in the backfield.
Goff is not the same outdoors
In games played indoors throughout his career, Jared Goff is 43-21-1 against the spread, including a 33-13-1 record over the last four seasons. But in outdoor games, Goff’s ATS record worsens to 37-35-2.
While the Bears are on an eight-game losing streak, four losses came on the final play. I like the resolve Chicago showed on Thanksgiving, despite falling behind 23-7 and nearly pulling the outright upset with a fourth-quarter comeback.
DraftKings is the only one of the best NFL betting sites where one can back the Bears at +6.5 (-105). We may see this line get to +7 because of the low juice on that side of the number. I'm backing a play at +6.5 with three stars of confidence, which would increase to four stars at +7.
A $10 winning wager at DraftKings would profit $9.52.
Lions vs. Bears best pick
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Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush Over 17.5 yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Gibbs has seen 11 or fewer carries in six of the team’s 14 games this season. But will likely take on more of a bell-cow workload with Montgomery out. This will lead to more opportunities for Gibbs to flash his explosiveness.
He has at least one 18-yard rush in seven of the last nine games, including a long of 28 yards on Thanksgiving against Chicago.
The Bears' defense ranked in the bottom five of the league in rushing yards per game, explosive run rate allowed, and yards per carry allowed on zone runs from Weeks 9-15. They held Vikings running backs to 3.9 yards per carry last week, but I expect Gibbs to break off one long one.
I am playing this more confidently than I am the O/U on his 92.5 rushing yards. There is great value in making this wager at BetMGM, as DraftKings charges the same -115 juice to back the Over of 19.5.
Lions vs. Bears odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Lions vs. Bears live odds
Lions vs. Bears opening odds:
- Lions: -7 (-115 via BetMGM)
- Bears: +7 (-105 via BetMGM)
Lions vs. Bears injuries
Lions vs. Bears game info
- When: Sunday, Dec. 22
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Where: Soldier Field (Chicago)
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: 36 degrees, 4% chance of precipitation, wind 15 mph S
- Favorite: Lions -6.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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