Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen: Comparing NFL MVP Favorites Ahead of Ravens vs. Bills

After one of the best NFL MVP races in league history, we'll be treated to Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen when the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills meet Sunday in the 2025 NFL Divisional Round.

We already broke down the NFL MVP odds ahead of Ravens vs. Bills, which suggest that the Ravens' two-time MVP will add a third such trophy to the shelf. But only one of those two passers is featured in our Super Bowl predictions entering this weekend's duel.

Here is our Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen comparison based on their production in the regular season and what we expect when they face off Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS):

Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen stats this year

Updated stats for the regular season and postseason courtesy of NFL.com entering the divisional round.

Jackson vs. Allen 2024 stats

Jackson vs. Allen playoff stats (Wild Card Weekend)

Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen record

• Regular season H2H record: Jackson (3-1), Allen (1-3)
• Playoff H2H record: Allen (1-0), Jackson (0-1)

Jackson is 3-2 all-time against Allen (including postseason) with a 1-0 record this year.

These two quarterbacks faced off in Week 4 this season, which saw Jackson lead the Ravens to a 35-10 win over Allen and the Bills. That's one reason why Baltimore is favored by the NFL Divisional Round odds to beat Buffalo on Sunday.

That win extended Jackson's head-to-head record against Allen to 3-1 in the regular season, though Allen won the lone playoff meeting in 2020 when the Bills outlasted the Ravens in a 17-3 win at Highmark Stadium - the site of Sunday's rematch.

Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen: Who is the better QB?

We're breaking down every aspect of the NFL MVP odds favorites ahead of Ravens vs. Bills with a focus on their regular-season production and outlook for Sunday.

Passing

Historically, the player who leads the NFL in key passing metrics like touchdowns and QBR wins the MVP award. That has made this year's race particularly confounding given that Jackson has been at or near the top of the statistical leaderboards all season.

Allen (77.5) narrowly edged out Jackson (77.2) for the league lead in QBR, but the Ravens QB is the runaway leader in passing TD rate (8.8%), just as he was when he won his first MVP award in 2019. He also led the league in passer rating (119.6) and yards per attempt (8.8), and his adjusted net yards per attempt (9.38) - a catch-all metric for passing success - was well ahead of third-place Allen (7.96).

Both quarterbacks have made incredible plays with their arm, but the reigning MVP winner has been the better passer between the two this season.

Advantage: Lamar Jackson

Rushing

This feels like the trickiest category of them all, as it depends on what you value from your quarterback and how you measure their production as a rusher.

Jackson is known as the more dynamic runner - he set the all-time mark for rushing yards by a quarterback in Week 17 - and he rushed for more yards this season (915) than he did in his MVP-winning campaign last year (821). He also led all qualified rushers in yards per carry (6.6) for the second consecutive season and fourth time in his career.

Yet Allen is the one who has the edge in rushing touchdowns (12) and first downs (52) despite 37 fewer carries in 17 starts. More than half of his 102 rushes resulted in a first down, and he led the NFL in rushing success rate (64.7%) and PFF rushing grade (94.4).

Here's the dilemma: nearly half of those Allen scores came at the goal line in "tush push" fashion. That's a credit to his running back-like stature, but it becomes a little less impressive after watching players like Kenny Pickett score in the same way.

Meanwhile, Jackson has been the more explosive rusher with eight runs of 20-plus yards - tied for seventh among all players - and his dual-threat ability has been a catalyst for Derrick Henry's monster effort in the NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds race.

By my estimation, the Ravens QB has created more relative value with his legs than you'd expect from a replacement player, and that's ultimately what the MVP award is all about. We're giving this one to Jackson, but you can make a strong case for either player.

Advantage: Lamar Jackson

Red zone

This is where Allen's rushing ability truly shines, though this category isn't the slam dunk you might expect given Jackson's sheer brilliance inside the 20-yard line.

Jackson led the NFL in red-zone touchdown passes (31) while throwing just two interceptions on 63 such attempts. He ranked first in yards per attempt (6.0) and fourth in completion rate (69.8%) in the red zone, and he scored three of his four rushing touchdowns in that area, as well.

Let me repeat something from above: Jackson has attempted 63 passes inside the 20, and 31 of them have been touchdowns. Nobody else has come close to that efficiency.

Allen has made his mark in the red area, too. All but one of his 12 rushing touchdowns this season came inside 20 yards, and he added 20 passing touchdowns - including one to himself - with just one interception in that region of the field.

Yet he completed fewer than 55% of his passes inside the 20, and he was sacked seven times in that area, which is tied for the fourth-most by any passer. Even with all those tush-push scores for Allen, I just can't ignore how spectacular Jackson has been with his arm and his legs near the end zone.

Advantage: Lamar Jackson

Turnovers

The crux of Allen's resurgence as the longtime MVP favorite this season was his ability to cut down on turnovers, which have plagued him throughout his seven-year career.

The 28-year-old passer threw just six interceptions this year after tossing a career-worst 18 picks across 17 starts last year. He also fumbled just five times (two lost) - the fewest in his career after coughing it up seven times last season.

Still, it's hard to say that gives Allen a clear advantage when Jackson had even fewer interceptions (four) across 17 starts, even with 10 fumbles (five lost) of his own.

According to PFF, Jackson was responsible for eight turnover-worthy plays with a 1.4% TWP rate in the regular season. Allen nearly doubled that with 15 TWP coming on 2.6% of his attempts. Jackson also had a lower interception rate (0.8%) than Allen (1.2%) even with his teammates dropping more passes than the Bills' receiving corps.

Here's the reality: Allen probably should have more turnovers than Jackson, but he doesn't, and the Bills offense committed the NFL's fewest giveaways (eight) to fuel their most efficient attack of the Allen era. This one goes to Buffalo's QB by a whisker.

Advantage: Josh Allen

Quality of wins

Ironically, this is the clearest win for Allen despite losing his head-to-head matchup with Jackson when these MVP candidates dueled in a 35-10 Baltimore win in Week 4.

Since then, the Bills vanquished the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions - who lead the latest Super Bowl odds entering the divisional round - while winning 11 of the last 12 games that Allen played more than one snap.

Their only loss came in a 44-42 barnburner to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 14, when Allen became the first player in NFL history with three passing and rushing TDs in a game.

Fittingly, the Ravens' best win came against Allen and Co. back in September, but they lost to the Chiefs in Week 1 and appeared outmatched against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 13. Those are the only clear-cut contenders that Baltimore has faced this season.

None of that particularly matters heading into Sunday - except for possibly the head-to-head matchup - but it certainly could shape the MVP voting that was submitted before the playoffs. In that regard, Allen easily earns the nod in this category.

Advantage: Josh Allen

Consistency

You could argue about this one in any which way you please, and you'd probably have a worthwhile case. That's how special these two have been all season.

Jackson has been a walking highlight reel since the opening week of the season, though his Week 11 clunker against the Pittsburgh Steelers nearly derailed his MVP candidacy entirely. He's bounced back with a stellar seven-game run, combining for 20 touchdowns and one interception to carry the Ravens to the divisional round.

Allen endured a tough start to the season, including that ugly loss in Baltimore, but he's settled into an efficient and consistent role for the Bills amid their torrid run over the last three months. After scoring twice in the wild-card round, he's tallied 19 touchdowns with just one interception in his last six complete starts entering Sunday.

If we're truly measuring the entire body of work including highs and lows, however, it's easier to find the winner here. Jackson has posted a passer rating below 100 just twice in his last 16 starts; Allen has done so four times in his last nine full games, and his two worst games by passer rating are both worse than Jackson's worst outing in Pittsburgh.

Advantage: Lamar Jackson

Advanced stats

Both quarterbacks would be deserving MVP candidates in any other season, and their advanced stats tell the story of just how dominant they've been this year.

Let's start with Allen, who finished the regular season with 37 big-time throws (BTT) and a 7.1% big-time throw rate - both the best in the NFL. He added two more in the postseason to carry Buffalo to a 31-7 blowout win over the Denver Broncos:

Allen also boasted the NFL's highest rushing grade of all time (94.4) in the regular season. Considering his elite and efficient passing numbers, it's a compelling case for the Bills star to win the first MVP award of his career.

Yet even with all that, Jackson ranked No. 1 by PFF's overall offense grade (94) and narrowly ranked second in passing grade (92.6) behind Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow (92.6) - another worthy MVP candidate this year. Allen ranks third and sixth, respectively, among full-time starters even with his aforementioned statistical feats.

Jackson also trailed only Burrow in total expected points added (EPA), and he was at the helm of the NFL's most efficient offense by EPA/play (0.21) and EPA/pass (0.35). Buffalo ranked second (0.18) and third (0.25), respectively.

No matter how you slice it, this is a close race as far as the advanced metrics are concerned. But even those give the nod to Jackson entering the divisional round.

Advantage: Lamar Jackson

Supporting cast

This is probably the biggest factor for Allen's MVP candidacy, and it's the best argument for overlooking Jackson's advantage in virtually every statistical metric - even if it's not the landslide some make it out to be.

Allen lost his favorite target in the offseason after the Bills traded star wideout Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans. The team's defense was also gutted in free agency to clear cap space for what was supposed to be a mini-rebuilding year in Buffalo.

Instead, Allen led perhaps the worst roster of his career to a 13-4 record, tied for the Bills' most wins since they drafted Allen in 2018. The emergence of running back James Cook and midseason trade for receiver Amari Cooper help matters, but the defense still ranks as a below-average unit despite the team's success to this point.

Meanwhile, Jackson has enjoyed the best supporting cast of skill-position stars in his six years as a full-time starter. Henry has put together a sensational season in his Baltimore debut, and tight end Mark Andrews continues to shine as one of the best at his position.

The Ravens' offensive line has been awfully shaky at times this season, so Jackson's career-best campaign deserves credit beyond his circumstances, but Baltimore's defense has also played a key role in turning the season around. This one goes to Allen.

Advantage: Josh Allen

Head-to-head record

As we laid out earlier, this is an easy win for Jackson because it's tough to ignore the results on the field.

These two quarterbacks have faced off four times in the regular season, and the Ravens have won three times with the latest coming by 25 points in Week 4. They also won in these QBs' career debuts in 2018 - both were backups - and in their first matchup as starters in 2019, when Jackson led Baltimore to a 24-17 win at Buffalo.

Allen returned the favor in 2022 with a comeback effort in a 23-20 road win, and he led the Bills to victory in these teams' only playoff meeting in 2020. Jackson left that game in the second half with a concussion as Buffalo rolled to a 17-3 win in the divisional round.

Given that Jackson won earlier this year and didn't even play the full contest when these two met in the postseason, he has the clear advantage based on past results.

Advantage: Lamar Jackson

Playoff history

This isn't just the biggest advantage in Allen's favor ahead of Sunday's divisional-round matchup - it's the single-biggest flaw on Jackson's otherwise sterling resume.

The two-time MVP has tormented defenses in the regular season, but he's been the one under fire in the postseason with a 3-4 career record in the NFL playoffs. That includes that loss to Buffalo in 2020 and last year's 17-10 defeat to Kansas City in the AFC Championship.

Jackson has completed fewer than 60% of his passes in the postseason with eight touchdown passes and six interceptions, and his career postseason passer rating (81.2) is well below that of the regular season (102). He's also turned it over in five of those seven games, though the Ravens are 2-0 in the playoffs when he doesn't.

Meanwhile, Allen has been one of the best quarterbacks in NFL playoff history. He's averaged 272.3 passing yards with 23 total touchdowns and four interceptions in his 11 starts overall, and his 609 rushing yards are the most by a QB in playoff history.

While he boasts a modest 6-5 record, three of those losses came against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs - including one of the most thrilling finishes of all time when they met in 2022. If that version of Allen shows up Sunday, watch out.

Advantage: Josh Allen

Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen 'MVP moments'

There's no way around it: Allen was responsible for the signature play of the NFL regular season, and it's the most salient argument for why he deserves to win his first MVP.

In the latest edition of one of the league's best rivalries, Allen put the team on his back in Week 11 against the Chiefs and scampered for a 26-yard touchdown on 4th-and-2 to ice the game. That run vaulted Allen to favorite status in this race, and he retained that crown until Jackson was named the first-team All-Pro quarterback to flip the odds at some sportsbooks after the market was closed at most.

Following that Chiefs win and a subsequent bye week, Allen threw a touchdown to himself in the snow against the San Francisco 49ers to further separate from the pack. Then he combined for six touchdowns in that record-setting loss against the Rams, and he downed the former title favorite Lions a week later to seemingly wrap up this race for good.

Yet Jackson has been stacking MVP performances all year - arguably in greater volume - to surpass even the most ridiculous highlights from his past award-winning campaigns.

Remember when he threw down Bengals defensive end Sam Hubbard before slinging a dart to Isaiah Likely to spark a Week 5 comeback against his division rivals?

Jackson threw for 348 yards and four touchdowns in that wild overtime win. He tossed five TDs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football in Week 7, and he posted a perfect passer rating two weeks later against the Denver Broncos' elite defense.

And then there was his performance on Christmas Day, when he posted the fifth-highest QBR in NFL history (99.8) while toying with Houston Texans defenders for 50 minutes before the Ravens eventually called off the dogs early in the fourth quarter.

Let's be honest with ourselves: is this not what the MVP looks like?

Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen: Who is the NFL MVP?

Before the market flipped following the All-Pro team announcements, I felt like I was losing my mind: how could seemingly all of NFL media view Jackson as the rightful MVP favorite while Allen continued to lead the odds? Fortunately, it seems logic has prevailed.

Jackson has put together one of the best seasons by a quarterback in NFL history, and his play on the field is arguably even more impressive than his stats on paper. He's done it all behind an inconsistent offensive line for a team that has made a habit of blowing late leads, which is the only reason the Ravens have a worse record than the Bills.

Let's take away "4th-and-2" for a second. What is Allen's case to win this year's MVP award over Jackson besides the fact that he hasn't won it before? Aside from that one signature play and a few goal-line scores, what has he done this year that his counterpart has not matched or exceeded?

Allen has a worse supporting cast, and he's still accumulated a higher volume of big-time throws. That matters in a race about value added. But virtually every metric suggests Jackson has provided more value for his team on a per-play and cumulative basis, and he's made a dozen key plays this season that are truly "one-of-one" type of efforts.

It feels like voter fatigue is playing a bigger role here than most would like to admit. Like Tony Romo admitted late in the Bills-Jets broadcast in Week 17, if Allen had previously won two MVP awards and Jackson had none, would this even be a debate?

That's why Jackson gets my vote as this season's most valuable player. And it's also why I have confidence in him leading the Ravens to a win on Sunday.

Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen: Who has the edge ahead of Ravens vs. Bills?

It's hard to go wrong with either side of Sunday's matchup, which is the first in NFL postseason history between two quarterbacks with at least 40 total touchdowns and fewer than 10 turnovers.

That said, I have the Ravens winning it all in my NFL playoff bracket predictions, and I fully expect them to escape Buffalo with a win this weekend. Jackson is a major reason why, as his ability to manipulate any defense with his elite arm and unmatched movement in and out of the pocket is simply too much to contain for 60 minutes.

Let's not avoid the obvious: Jackson has struggled in the postseason. But his early-career issues weren't present in last year's AFC Championship - his supporting cast was as much to blame as anything - and he's evolved as a passer even since that loss.

I fully expect Allen to come out firing on Sunday, too. He's one of the best quarterbacks on the planet, and he's always delivered when the calendar flips to January. I just don't expect him to outshine this year's most dynamic quarterback in what should be an instant classic.

We broke down both sides of this matchup in our NFL divisional round picks and preview.

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