NFL MVP Odds 2024-25: Allen Hangs On as Favorite Over Jackson, Barkley in Week 16
Even after a less-than-stellar showing, Josh Allen held onto his seemingly insurmountable lead in the NFL MVP odds race following Week 16.
The Buffalo Bills star threw for 154 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in a 24-21 win over the New England Patriots, which led to a dip in his NFL MVP odds after Week 16 - especially after an injury to his throwing hand in that win.
Still, our best NFL betting sites are pricing Allen with an 85.47% implied probabiliy to win this award, even with reigning MVP winner Lamar Jackson knocking on the door.
NFL MVP odds 2024-25
NFL MVP odds from our best NFL betting sites after Week 16. See our NFL player prop odds tool for the latest odds on any player.
- Josh Allen struggled in Week 16 but is still the runaway favorite to win this award for the first time in his career
- Lamar Jackson leads the NFL in most passing metrics, but he's running out of time to catch Allen in this race
- Saquon Barkley finished with 150 rushing yards and two touchdowns on Sunday, though his Philadelphia Eagles lost to the Washington Commanders
- Jared Goff led the Detroit Lions to another big win Sunday over the Chicago Bears to help his long-shot MVP case
Josh Allen, QB, Bills (-588)
I'm sure there was a moment - from Weeks 8 to 10 - where people thought Allen's tendency from years past to throw an inordinate number of picks was making an ugly comeback.
And then he scored 15 touchdowns with just one interception from Weeks 11 to 15, barreling past his closest MVP competitors like he did the Lions defense.
Even after a less-than-impressive showing against the Patriots, Allen is still leading the Bills to victories nearly every week, and he still isn't turning the ball over to a reckless degree like he once did.
Allen did suffer an injury to his throwing hand on Sunday, which could pry open the door slightly for Jackson to make a comeback. It could also spell some minor value at these -588 odds - which would turn a $10 stake into a $1.70 profit - if he ultimately wins as expected.
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Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens (+500)
A week after torching the New York Giants defense for 290 passing yards and five touchdowns, Jackson added three more scores this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
It did very little to move the needle in the MVP betting market, as his implied win probability remains at just 16.67% with two weeks left in the regular season.
If Allen is out for the year, Jackson has a shot if he can put up monster numbers against the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns to end the year. For now, he seems destined to finish second in one of the best MVP races in years.
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Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles (+1400)
Barkley's chances of winning this award took an Iron Man-like fist to the jaw in Week 15, as his quiet day paired with Allen's sensational antics at Ford Field made it nearly impossible for the running back to gain ground in this race.
That remains true even after he ran for 150 yards and two scores against the Commanders - a performance that moved his odds from +1500 to +1400. It seems like it might be too little, too late for the Eagles star to win this year.
Jared Goff, QB, Lions (+2500)
Goff threw for nearly 500 yards and five touchdowns in Week 15 and saw his odds dip all the way from +1800 to +2800 in a loss to the Buffalo Bills. He put up big numbers against the Bears this week and saw very little movement.
It might be game over for Goff's MVP case, though he's still enjoyed an outstanding season to lead the Lions to their best record (13-2) in franchise history. It won't be enough, though, which is a testament to Allen's dominance in this race.
NFL MVP odds over time
(Most recent odds via DraftKings)
| Player | Opening odds (Feb. 12) | Sept. 4 | Nov. 26 | Dec. 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +600 | +500 | +1300 | +7500 |
| Josh Allen | +800 | +800 | +150 | -600 |
| Joe Burrow | +900 | +900 | +3000 | +6000 |
| C.J. Stroud | +1100 | +900 | +9000 | +30000 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1200 | +1600 | +250 | +425 |
| Dak Prescott | +1400 | +1600 | OFF | OFF |
| Justin Herbert | +1400 | +1600 | +2200 | +20000 |
| Brock Purdy | +1600 | +1600 | +10000 | +100000 |
| Jalen Hurts | +1600 | +1400 | +2500 | |
| Jordan Love | +1600 | +1400 | +5000 | +15000 |
How to bet NFL MVP futures odds
Betting on the NFL MVP typically involves wagering on which player will be awarded the league's MVP title at the end of the regular season. Here are steps to bet on the NFL MVP:
- Understand the odds: Familiarize yourself with the odds listed by sportsbooks for different players to win the MVP. The player with the lowest odds is considered the favorite.
- Research player performances: Analyze the performances of various players throughout the season. Factors such as statistics, impact on their team's success, and overall contributions are crucial. Consider quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, or even defensive players who might be having outstanding seasons.
- Monitor odds and player performance: Throughout the season, keep an eye on odds fluctuations and player performances. As the season progresses, odds will change based on players' performances and their impact on games.
- Stay updated: Stay informed about injuries, team performance, and how players are faring in their respective positions. These factors can significantly impact a player's chances of winning the MVP.
- Cash-out or hold: Depending on how the season progresses and the player's performance, you can decide to cash out if the odds are in your favor or hold onto your bet until the end of the season to see if your chosen player wins the MVP.
Remember, betting on the NFL MVP requires careful consideration of various factors and a good understanding of the game and players' performances throughout the season.
How to read NFL MVP odds
Reading NFL MVP odds is straightforward. Odds are usually presented in a format like +500 or -200. Positive odds (e.g., +500) show how much profit you’d make on a $100 bet.
For example, a $100 bet at +500 odds would win you $500, plus your original $100 stake, totaling $600. Negative odds (e.g., -200) indicate how much you need to bet to win $100. So, a $200 bet at -200 odds would win you $100, plus your $200 stake, totaling $300.
These odds also reflect the probability of a team winning the championship. Lower odds (e.g., +300) suggest a higher likelihood, while higher odds (e.g., +2000) indicate a lower probability. Sportsbooks adjust these odds based on performance, injuries, trades, and betting patterns.
If Patrick Mahomes gets +500 odds and Josh Allen gets +1000, Mahomes is considered more likely to win. If you bet $100 on Mahomes and he wins, you’d get $600 back ($500 profit + $100 stake). Understanding these odds helps you make informed betting decisions and assess potential returns.
NFL MVP award winners
| Year | Player | Team | Position | Preseason odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Lamar Jackson | Ravens | QB | +1400 |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | QB | +800 |
| 2021 | Aaron Rodgers | Packers | QB | +1100 |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers | Packers | QB | +3000 |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson | Ravens | QB | +4000 |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | QB | +3525 |
| 2017 | Tom Brady | Patriots | QB | +385 |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan | Falcons | QB | +7500 |
| 2015 | Cam Newton | Panthers | QB | +5200 |
| 2014 | Aaron Rodgers | Packers | QB | +600 |
NFL MVP winners by position
| Position | NFL MVP awards |
|---|---|
| Quarterback | 47 |
| Running back | 13 |
| Fullback | 4 |
| Halfback | 1 |
| Kicker | 1 |
| Defensive tackle | 1 |
| Linebacker | 1 |
NFL MVP winners by team
| Team | NFL MVP awards |
|---|---|
| Packers | 10 |
| Colts | 9 |
| 49ers | 5 |
| Browns | 4 |
| Rams | 4 |
| Raiders | 3 |
| Patriots | 3 |
| Commanders | 3 |
| Broncos | 3 |
| Vikings | 3 |
NFL MVP FAQs
Who is the favorite for NFL MVP?
Josh Allen is the NFL MVP odds favorite, with his best odds of -588 implying a 85.47% chance, according to our odds calculator, that he wins the award for the first time in his career.
When will the 2024-25 NFL MVP be announced?
The 2024-25 NFL MVP will be announced at the NFL Honors show in the days ahead of the 2025 Super Bowl.
Who was the NFL MVP last year?
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson won the 2023-24 NFL MVP award, claiming the award for the second time in his career.
Who has the most NFL MVP awards in history?
Former quarterback Peyton Manning has won five NFL MVP awards. He captured four with the Indianapolis Colts (2003, 2004, 2008, 2009) and one with the Denver Broncos (2013).
Who was the last back-to-back MVP winner?
Aaron Rodgers won back-to-back MVPs in 2020 and 2021.
Has anyone won consecutive MVPs more than once?
Peyton Manning won consecutive MVP awards twice, in 2003 and 2004 and again in 2008 and 2009.
Has anyone won three straight MVPs?
No player has won the MVP in three successive seasons.
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