NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds 2024-25: Surtain Making Life Uncomfortable for Watt
It looks like the Pittsburgh Steelers dodged a bullet as far as T.J. Watt's injury is concerned. The Defensive Player of the Year odds (DPOY) favorite across our best NFL betting sites might even be back for the Steelers' pivotal divisional clash against the Baltimore Ravens.
Patrick Surtain II is doing his utmost to chase down Watt atop the DPOY odds leaderboard. He's trading at +360, which carries a 21.74% implied win probability.
However, the Denver Broncos cornerback also suffered an ankle injury late in Week 15 but should play in Week 16.
Watt's odds, which have decreased from -190 to -149, carry a 59.84% win probability. Nick Bonitto is the only other player with odds that carry an implied probability of over 10%.
Let's dive into the DPOY odds as we look ahead to the NFL Week 16 odds.
NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds 2024-25
Defensive Player of the Year odds recent takeaways:
- Surtain secured his first interception in six games against the Indianapolis Colts. His odds have shortened from +2500 to +350 over the last month
- While Watt's status for Week 16 is unclear, he won't miss an extended period
- Will Anderson (+1600) enjoyed one of his best performances against Miami, posting a sack, a quarterback hit, a hurry, and two tackles
NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds favorite 2024-25
T.J. Watt (-149)
It will be interesting to see whether Watt can play against the Ravens. With so much on the line, I wouldn't be surprised to see him suit up.
Then again, the Steelers must also be cautious about their most valuable player. They can ill-afford his absence down the stretch and into the playoffs.
If he doesn't play, Surtain has a golden opportunity to close the gap even more.
Before suffering the injury, Watt sacked Jalen Hurts twice. He has four sacks in the last three games and 11.5 overall, tied for third. Watt has moved up from seventh in the last two weeks.
He's tied for the league lead in tackles for a loss (18).
The tenacious defensive end has notched eight tackles for a loss in the last five games while spearheading a team rooted in its defensive dominance. The Steelers enter Week 16 allowing the sixth-fewest points per game (18.9).
Watt produced 19 TFLs last season while finishing second in DPOY voting, and, depending on his health, he still has three games remaining. His status as the prohibitive favorite has evaporated, and who wins DPOY could depend on Watt's health down the stretch.
Best odds: -149 via Caesars | Implied probability: 59.84%
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My NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds player to watch
Patrick Surtain II (+360)
Surtain participated fully at the Broncos' Tuesday practice and should play in Week 16 against the Los Angeles Chargers. That's excellent news for the Broncos and Surtain backers.
The Broncos cornerback is on a roll, and Watt's injury may hand Surtain the break he needs to reel in the Steelers' defensive end.
He has 14 tackles and one interception in the last five games. He's tied for eighth with four interceptions, and he's one of the primary reasons the Broncos are tied with the Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles for the fewest points allowed per game (17.6).
If he finds a way to overcome Watt's lead and wins his first DPOY Award, a $10 bet will profit $36.
Best odds: +360 via ESPN Bet | Implied probability: 21.74%
How to bet NFL Defensive Player of the Year futures odds
Betting on the NFL Defensive Player of the Year typically involves wagering on which player will be awarded the league's Defensive Player of the Year title at the end of the regular season.
Here are steps to bet on the NFL Defensive Player of the Year:
- Understand the odds: Familiarize yourself with the odds listed by sportsbooks for different players to win the Defensive Player of the Year. The player with the lowest odds is considered the favorite.
- Research player performances: Analyze the performances of various players throughout the season. Factors such as statistics, impact on their team's success, and overall contributions are crucial.
- Monitor odds and player performance: Throughout the season, keep an eye on odds fluctuations and player performances. As the season progresses, odds will change based on players' performances and their impact on games.
- Stay updated: Stay informed about injuries, team performance, and how players are faring.
- Cash-out or hold: Depending on how the season progresses and the player's performance, you can decide to cash out if the odds are in your favor or hold onto your bet until the end of the season to see if your chosen player wins the Offensive Player of the Year.
Remember, betting on the NFL Defensive Player of the Year requires careful consideration of various factors and a good understanding of the game and players' performances throughout the season.
How to read NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds
Reading NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds is straightforward. Odds are usually presented in a format like +500 or -200. Positive odds (e.g., +500) show how much profit you’d make on a $100 bet.
For example, a $100 bet at +500 odds would win you $500, plus your original $100 stake, totaling $600. Negative odds (e.g., -200) indicate how much you need to bet to win $100. So, a $200 bet at -200 odds would win you $100, plus your $200 stake, totaling $300.
These odds also reflect the probability of a player winning the Defensive Player of the Year. Lower odds (e.g., +300) suggest a higher likelihood, while higher odds (e.g., +2000) indicate a lower probability. Sportsbooks adjust these odds based on performance, injuries, and betting patterns.
If Micah Parsons gets +500 odds and T.J. Watt gets +1000, Parsons is considered more likely to win. If you bet $100 on Hill and he wins, you’d get $600 back ($500 profit + $100 stake). Understanding these odds helps you make informed betting decisions and assess potential returns.
NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds over time
(Most recent odds via FanDuel)
| Player | June 10 | Aug. 2 | Oct. 9 | Nov. 19 | Nov. 26 | Dec. 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah Parsons | +500 | +450 | +3000 | +15000 | +10000 | +15000 |
| T.J. Watt | +700 | +750 | +300 | -160 | -120 | -160 |
| Nick Bosa | +700 | +700 | +1100 | +1300 | +5000 | +38000 |
| Maxx Crosby | +700 | +700 | +1600 | +10000 | +15000 | OFF |
| Myles Garrett | +700 | +750 | +2000 | +4000 | +1200 | +3300 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | +1400 | +1400 | +275 | OFF | OFF | OFF |
| Will Anderson Jr. | +3000 | +3000 | +4000 | +2500 | +1100 | +1400 |
| Danielle Hunter | +4000 | +3300 | +5000 | +3000 | +1400 | +2600 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | +1400 | +1400 | +8000 | +30000 | +30000 | OFF |
| Chris Jones | +2800 | +2800 | +1100 | +1100 | +1800 | +8000 |
NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds history
| Year | Player | Preseason odds | Team | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Myles Garrett | +600 | Browns | DE |
| 2022 | Nick Bosa | +1400 | 49ers | DE |
| 2021 | T.J. Watt | +800 | Steelers | LB |
| 2020 | Aaron Donald | +600 | Rams | DT |
| 2019 | Stephon Gilmore | +8000 | Patriots | CB |
| 2018 | Aaron Donald | +590 | Rams | DT |
| 2017 | Aaron Donald | +1400 | Rams | DT |
| 2016 | Khalil Mack | +650 | Bears | LB |
| 2015 | J.J. Watt | +150 | Texans | DE |
| 2014 | J.J. Watt | +550 | Texans | DE |
NFL Defensive Player of the Year winners by team
| Team | DPOY wins |
|---|---|
| Steelers | 8 |
| Giants | 4 |
| Ravens | 4 |
| Bears | 3 |
| Bills | 3 |
| Buccaneers | 3 |
| Dolphins | 3 |
| Texans | 3 |
| 49ers | 3 |
| Rams | 3 |
| Raiders | 2 |
| Seahawks | 2 |
| Vikings | 2 |
| Broncos | 1 |
| Browns | 1 |
| Colts | 1 |
| Cowboys | 1 |
| Eagles | 1 |
| Patriots | 1 |
| Panthers | 1 |
| Saints | 1 |
NFL Defensive Player of the Year FAQs
Who is the favorite for NFL Defensive Player of the Year?
Pittsburgh Steelers edge-rusher T.J. Watt is the Defensive Player of the Year odds favorite entering NFL Week 14 with -149 odds, implying a 59.84% probability via our odds calculator.
Who was the NFL Defensive Player of the Year last year?
Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett was named the NFL Defensive Player of the Year for the 2023-24 season.
Who's won the most Defensive Player of the Year Awards?
Lawrence Taylor, J.J. Watt, and Aaron Donald share the NFL lead with three career DPOY wins. Five players won it twice.
When will the 2024-25 NFL Defensive Player of the Year be announced?
The 2024-25 NFL Defensive Player of the Year will be announced at the NFL Honors show during Super Bowl week in early February 2025.
When was the last back-to-back NFL Defensive Player of the Year winner?
Aaron Donald won the award in 2017 and 2018, and J.J. Watt won it in 2014 and 2015. Lawrence Taylor took the honors in 1981 and 1982. Those three are the only back-to-back recipients.
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