NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds 2024-25: Watt Remains Prohibitive Favorite Entering Week 12
T.J. Watt is chasing down his second Defensive Player of the Year Award in the same way he stalks quarterbacks as he continues to pull away as the Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) odds favorite.
Watt's status as the prohibitive favorite across our best NFL betting sites strengthened after his Week 11 performance against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens.
While not entirely his doing, Watt had a part in ensuring Jackson's MVP odds decreased.
Chris Jones played well in a losing cause against the Buffalo Bills but could not keep pace with Watt after seeing his odds at FanDuel lengthen from +900 to +1100. Nick Bosa, whose status for Week 12 is uncertain after suffering a hip injury against the Seattle Seahawks, is the only other player with an implied win probability above 6%.
Here's how the DPOY odds shape up at our NFL prop betting sites entering Week 12.
NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds 2024-25
| Player | FanDuel odds | Implied probability | Profit on a $10 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Watt | -160 | 61.54% | $6.25 |
| Chris Jones | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Nick Bosa | +1300 | 7.14% | $130 |
| Trey Hendrickson | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Fred Warner | +1900 | 5.00% | $190 |
| Dexter Lawrence | +1900 | 5.00% | $190 |
| Pat Surtain II | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Will Anderson Jr. | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Xavier McKinney | +3000 | 3.23% | $300 |
| Danielle Hunter | +3000 | 3.23% | $300 |
Defensive Player of the Year odds recent takeaways:
- Watt's odds shortened ever so slightly in Week 11, moving from -140 to -160
- Aside from Watt, Bosa was the only player among the 10 favorites to see his odds shorten in Week 11 (+2000 to +1300)
- Despite not playing due to the New York Giants' bye, Dexter Lawrence endured the worst week of the 10 favorites, seeing his odds lengthen from +1300 to +1900
NFL Defensive Player of the Year favorite 2024-25
T.J. Watt (-160)
Nobody, not even our man Jones, did much in Week 10 or 11 to cut into Watt's Goliath-size lead atop the odds leaderboard. Bosa had an excellent Week 11 but might not be able to play in Week 12.
After a comparatively quiet outing against the Washington Commanders, with just two quarterback hits, Watt had an influential part to play in Pittsburgh's impressive home victory over the Baltimore Ravens.
Despite not having linebacker Alex Highsmith (who missed the game due to an ankle sprain) beside him, Watt did what he always seems to do and stepped up. He finished the contest with three tackles, two of which were for a loss, and one sack. While it wasn't one of his best performances, he did enough to add more separation between him and the chasing pack.
And if you haven't already seen it, you must take a look at Watt flattening King Henry in the backfield.
Watt is tied for seventh with 7.5 sacks, tied for second with 12 tackles for a loss and tied for third with 18 quarterback hits. At PFF, he is ranked second in overall defense (92.9), second in run defense (92.5), and 14th in pass rush (90).
His odds have continually increased, all but draining any remaining value. A $10 winning bet will profit $6.25.
Best odds: -140 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 58.33%
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My NFL Defensive Player of the Year player to watch
Chris Jones (+1100)
We've been writing about Jones since he entered the season as a +3500 long shot, and he's still an intriguing value play at these +1100 odds.
He's trading with odds as short as +850 at Caesars. While he remains way behind Watt, he has the second-shortest odds to win. He has four sacks and 34 hurries through 11 weeks. Jones had seven hurries against Josh Allen, only two off his season best.
And he's also pretty adept at getting a hold of some face mask.
He grades out as the 10th-best pass-rusher via PFF and has the 15th-best defensive grade overall (89.7). He is tied for the second-most hurries (34).
We've backed the Chiefs' menace since Day 1, and while he'll need to play like a one-man wrecking crew for the remainder of the season while getting some help to win, we've certainly enjoyed seeing his upward trajectory.
Best odds: +1100 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 8.33%
How to bet NFL Defensive Player of the Year futures odds
Betting on the NFL Defensive Player of the Year typically involves wagering on which player will be awarded the league's Defensive Player of the Year title at the end of the regular season.
Here are steps to bet on the NFL Defensive Player of the Year:
- Understand the odds: Familiarize yourself with the odds listed by sportsbooks for different players to win the Defensive Player of the Year. The player with the lowest odds is considered the favorite.
- Research player performances: Analyze the performances of various players throughout the season. Factors such as statistics, impact on their team's success, and overall contributions are crucial.
- Monitor odds and player performance: Throughout the season, keep an eye on odds fluctuations and player performances. As the season progresses, odds will change based on players' performances and their impact on games.
- Stay updated: Stay informed about injuries, team performance, and how players are faring.
- Cash-out or hold: Depending on how the season progresses and the player's performance, you can decide to cash out if the odds are in your favor or hold onto your bet until the end of the season to see if your chosen player wins the Offensive Player of the Year.
Remember, betting on the NFL Defensive Player of the Year requires careful consideration of various factors and a good understanding of the game and players' performances throughout the season.
How to read NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds
Reading NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds is straightforward. Odds are usually presented in a format like +500 or -200. Positive odds (e.g., +500) show how much profit you’d make on a $100 bet.
For example, a $100 bet at +500 odds would win you $500, plus your original $100 stake, totaling $600. Negative odds (e.g., -200) indicate how much you need to bet to win $100. So, a $200 bet at -200 odds would win you $100, plus your $200 stake, totaling $300.
These odds also reflect the probability of a player winning the Defensive Player of the Year. Lower odds (e.g., +300) suggest a higher likelihood, while higher odds (e.g., +2000) indicate a lower probability. Sportsbooks adjust these odds based on performance, injuries, and betting patterns.
If Micah Parsons gets +500 odds and T.J. Watt gets +1000, Parsons is considered more likely to win. If you bet $100 on Hill and he wins, you’d get $600 back ($500 profit + $100 stake). Understanding these odds helps you make informed betting decisions and assess potential returns.
Defensive Player of the Year odds over time
(Most recent odds via FanDuel)
| Player | June 10 | Aug. 2 | Oct. 9 | Nov. 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah Parsons | +500 | +450 | +3000 | +15000 |
| T.J. Watt | +700 | +750 | +300 | -160 |
| Nick Bosa | +700 | +700 | +1100 | +1300 |
| Maxx Crosby | +700 | +700 | +1600 | +10000 |
| Myles Garrett | +700 | +750 | +2000 | +4000 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | +1400 | +1400 | +275 | OFF |
| Will Anderson Jr. | +3000 | +3000 | +4000 | +2500 |
| Danielle Hunter | +4000 | +3300 | +5000 | +3000 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | +1400 | +1400 | +8000 | +30000 |
| Chris Jones | +2800 | +2800 | +1100 | +1100 |
Past NFL Defensive Player of the Year winners
| Year | Player | Preseason odds | Team | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Myles Garrett | +600 | Browns | DE |
| 2022 | Nick Bosa | +1400 | 49ers | DE |
| 2021 | T.J. Watt | +800 | Steelers | LB |
| 2020 | Aaron Donald | +600 | Rams | DT |
| 2019 | Stephon Gilmore | +8000 | Patriots | CB |
| 2018 | Aaron Donald | +590 | Rams | DT |
| 2017 | Aaron Donald | +1400 | Rams | DT |
| 2016 | Khalil Mack | +650 | Bears | LB |
| 2015 | J.J. Watt | +150 | Texans | DE |
| 2014 | J.J. Watt | +550 | Texans | DE |
Defensive Player of the Year winners by team
| Team | DPOY wins |
|---|---|
| Steelers | 8 |
| Giants | 4 |
| Ravens | 4 |
| Bears | 3 |
| Bills | 3 |
| Buccaneers | 3 |
| Dolphins | 3 |
| Texans | 3 |
| 49ers | 3 |
| Rams | 3 |
| Raiders | 2 |
| Seahawks | 2 |
| Vikings | 2 |
| Broncos | 1 |
| Browns | 1 |
| Colts | 1 |
| Cowboys | 1 |
| Eagles | 1 |
| Patriots | 1 |
| Panthers | 1 |
| Saints | 1 |
NFL Defensive Player of the Year FAQs
Who is the favorite for NFL Defensive Player of the Year?
Pittsburgh Steelers edge-rusher T.J. Watt is the Defensive Player of the Year odds favorite entering NFL Week 12 with -160 odds at FanDuel, implying a 61.54% probability via our odds calculator.
Who was the NFL Defensive Player of the Year last year?
Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett was named the NFL Defensive Player of the Year for the 2023-24 season.
Who's won the most Defensive Player of the Year Awards?
Lawrence Taylor, J.J. Watt, and Aaron Donald share the NFL lead with three career DPOY wins. Five players won it twice.
When will the 2024-25 NFL Defensive Player of the Year be announced?
The 2024-25 NFL Defensive Player of the Year will be announced at the NFL Honors show during Super Bowl week in early February 2025.
When was the last back-to-back NFL Defensive Player of the Year winner?
Aaron Donald won the award in 2017 and 2018, and J.J. Watt won it in 2014 and 2015. Lawrence Taylor took the honors in 1981 and 1982. Those three are the only back-to-back recipients.
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