NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds 2024-25: Burrow Finishes Ahead of Darnold as Favorite
There was a tight battle between Joe Burrow and Sam Darnold in the NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds until the final hours of the season.
Burrow had put up a pedestrian performance by his standards the night before, yet his Cincinnati Bengals still won while briefly preserving their playoff hopes. That's when he jumped ahead of Darnold narrowly in this market.
The Detroit Lions' defense then swarmed Darnold on Sunday Night Football, resulting in Burrow pushing further ahead while listed at -270 now, and the signal-caller for the Minnesota Vikings sitting at +200.
That's a sizable though still not gargantuan gap considering it remains difficult to understand what, exactly, Darnold was coming back from, aside from a trip down the depth chart.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds 2025
Here are the other newsworthy CPOY notes:
- Burrow's odds lengthened from -500 to +105 in less than three weeks, though he moved back to around -120 following Saturday, and then to -270 today
- Burrow is still among the NFL MVP odds contenders, though he's an increasing long shot
- Darnold was challenging Burrow and moved into the lead for a while, but his odds shifted from -105 to +200 after Sunday
- J.K. Dobbins returned from injury in Week 17 but is pretty much out of this race, according to the odds
NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds favorite
Joe Burrow Comeback Player of the Year odds (-270)
It's certainly not Burrow's fault that the Bengals finished 9-8, as he ranks among the best quarterbacks in the NFL by nearly every metric.
The only odd part about Burrow's status as the Comeback Player of the Year favorite is the matter of what exactly he's coming back from.
The Associated Press clarified the criteria for the award before the season stated before the season that "the spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury, or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season."
Sure, Burrow endured a wrist injury in 2023, but he still played 10 games and is relatively young and able to bounce back from that ailment just fine.
Burrow has been incredible, and he deserves to win the award more than Darnold. But as Brad Pitt famously said in Troy, "Is there no one else?"
Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins don't deserve it, but what about Damar Hamlin, Nick Chubb, and J.K. Dobbins, the former of whom we've raved about since the start of the season?
So it's likely to be Burrow by default. A $10 wager at these -270 odds from FanDuel would lead to a profit of only 3.70.
Best odds: -270 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 72.97
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Sam Darnold Comeback Player of the Year odds (+200)
At the very least, Darnold has ensured he'll receive a massive payday for the subsequent seasons.
He led his Vikings to a 14-3 record, though they fell short in a pivotal clash with the Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football, losing out on a division title and the top seed in the conference in the process. The Lions smothered Darnold, and he finished a completion percentage of just 43.9 on 4.0 yards per attempt during the 31-9 drubbing.
He's consequently further behind Burrow now in this market than before the game. However, the canyon of space to the next closest contender by the odds (Dobbins at +2100) shows that at minimum Darnold remains in the Comeback Player of the Year conversation.
He produced a remarkable season and deserves praise and respect, but his mere presence on the oddsboard here goes against the spirit of the award.
Nonetheless, a winning $10 bet now on Darnold would lead to a $20 profit.
Best odds: +200 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 33.33%
NFL Comeback Player of the Year opening odds
- Aaron Rodgers: +100
- Joe Burrow: +200
- Anthony Richardson: +750
- Kirk Cousins: +500
- Russell Wilson: +1200
- Deshaun Watson: +1500
- Nick Chubb: +2000
- Damar Hamlin: OFF
- Tank Dell: +2500
- Justin Herbert: +2500
NFL Comeback Player of the Year voting criteria
The NFL Comeback Player of the Year voting criteria had long been unclear. Players have won it after returning from a major injury (Alex Smith), after beating an illness (Eric Berry), after a breakout season (Geno Smith), and after a career renaissance (Ryan Tannehill).
The award has been unpredictable, and Flacco winning it over Hamlin was the perfect example of that, leading to a change.
Under the new voting criteria, The Associated Press has emphasized that only players returning from injury or illness should be the focus of the award. Players who are bouncing back from a bad season or have improved from mediocre to great shouldn't win the award.
“The spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year Award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury, or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season,” AP senior NFL writer Rob Maaddi, who oversees All-Pro and NFL awards voting, told Pro Football Talk.
While the new criteria is used as a guideline for voters, they can still support players like Smith or Flacco.
For example, new Pittsburgh Steelers QB Russell Wilson could still theoretically win the award, he just holds a less likely chance now that the criteria has been adjusted.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds history
| Season | Player | Preseason odds | Team | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Joe Flacco | OFF | Browns | QB |
| 2022 | Geno Smith | OFF | Seahawks | QB |
| 2021 | Joe Burrow | +800 | Bengals | QB |
| 2020 | Alex Smith | +300 | Washington Football Team | QB |
| 2019 | Ryan Tannehill | OFF | Titans | QB |
| 2018 | Andrew Luck | +450 | Colts | QB |
| 2017 | Keenan Allen | +900 | Chargers | WR |
| 2016 | Jordy Nelson | +600 | Packers | WR |
| 2015 | Eric Berry | +500 | Chiefs | S |
| 2014 | Rob Gronkowski | +1000 | Patriots | TE |
How to bet on NFL Comeback Player of the Year
Of the NFL futures markets, NFL Comeback Player of the Year may be the strangest to bet on, especially with how last year played out - giving it to the most out-of-nowhere performance (Flacco).
This award is almost a lock to go to whichever of the returning QBs is most impressive, which is why the best move is to target whichever passer you believe has the best shot at returning to Pro Bowl form and contending for the playoffs.
How to read NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds
Reading NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds is straightforward. Odds are usually presented in a format like +500 or -200. Positive odds (e.g., +500) show how much profit you’d make on a $100 bet.
For example, a $100 bet at +500 odds would win you $500, plus your original $100 stake, totaling $600. Negative odds (e.g., -200) indicate how much you need to bet to win $100. So, a $200 bet at -200 odds would win you $100, plus your $200 stake, totaling $300.
These odds also reflect the probability of a player winning the Comeback Player of the Year. Lower odds (e.g., +300) suggest a higher likelihood, while higher odds (e.g., +2000) indicate a lower probability. Sportsbooks adjust these odds based on performance, injuries, and betting patterns.
If Aaron Rodgers gets +500 odds and Joe Burrow gets +1000, Rodgers is considered more likely to win. If you bet $100 on Rodgers and he wins, you’d get $600 back ($500 profit + $100 stake). Understanding these odds helps you make informed betting decisions and assess potential returns.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year FAQs
Who is the favorite for NFL Comeback Player of the Year?
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is the favorite at FanDuel with odds of -270. That translates to a 72.87%% implied probability via our odds calculator.
Who was the NFL Comeback Player of the Year last year?
Cleveland Browns QB Joe Flacco was named the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year for the 2023-24 season after signing with the team for the final five games.
When will the 2024-25 NFL Comeback Player of the Year be announced?
The NFL Comeback Player of the Year will be announced at the NFL Honors show during Super Bowl week in early February 2025.
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