Dolphins vs. Packers Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for TNF Week 13
With three wins in a row, the Miami Dolphins are heating up leading into their matchup with the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving night - but could the Green Bay weather cool down Miami’s momentum?
Our Dolphins vs. Packers early picks and odds for TNF on Thanksgiving night see the Packers as a side that will get more popular throughout the week.
As the public betting market connects the dots between the forecast for frigid conditions and Tua Tagovailoa’s cold weather history, most bettors are going to want to back the Pack. That's what we're doing in our Dolphins vs. Packers prediction.
My early Dolphins vs. Packers prediction: Packers -3
NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Prediction: Packers -3
Best odds: -120 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 54.55%
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Potential flurries and an air temperature in the low-20s are forecasted for Thanksgiving night at Lambeau. Although weather tropes are sometimes overplayed in the modern NFL, it would be imprudent to ignore Tua Tagovailoa’s history in the cold.
According to Joe Schad of the Palm Beach Post, Tagovailoa is 0-7 when the temperature dips below 40 degrees. While the Dolphins have won three straight to climb back into the playoff picture, each of their five wins this year have come against teams with sub-.500 records.
Meanwhile, the Packers are 4-2 at home this year, with the combined record of their opponents from those games standing at a stout 42-26. Coming off their dominance of the 49ers in Week 12, this feels like a spot that will see the spread inflate for the Packers through the week.
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Dolphins vs. Packers live odds
See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for every Week X game.
Moneyline
- Packers best odds: -169 via Caesars | Implied probability: 62.83%
- Dolphins best odds: +145 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 40.82%
The Packers opened at -160 and are seeing that number tick up early in the week. Caesars is offering the Packers ML at -169, with BetMGM and DraftKings on the other end of the value spectrum at -175. There are minimal differences from our best sports betting sites on the Dolphins ML, which is listed between +143 and +145 odds.
Spread
- Packers best odds: -3 (-120) via BetMGM
- Dolphins best odds: +3.5 (-115) via DraftKings
You can still get Packers -3 at BetMGM, Caesars, and bet365, but the line is attached to -120 odds after opening around -110. With the weather narrative likely being an influential factor, I expect the line to move further toward the Packers ahead of Thursday.
Over/Under
- Over best odds: 47.5 (-105) via FanDuel
- Under best odds: 47.5 (-110) via BetMGM
After opening at 49, the total has already dipped to 47.5 across our best sports betting apps. That could be an overreaction to Green Bay stifling backup QB Brandon Allen this past Sunday.
Even if the weather impacts Tagovailoa to an extent, the Dolphins should contribute to the total. They have averaged 29.0 PPG since Tua’s return from IR. Barring more wind and precipitation added to the forecast, this total shouldn’t drop below 47.
How to watch Dolphins vs. Packers
- When: Thursday, Nov. 28
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisc.
- How to watch: NBC
- Weather: 21 degrees, 14% chance of precipitation, wind 15 mph NW
- Favorite: Packers -3 (-120 via BetMGM)
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