Divisional Round Picks & Preview: Why Every NFL Playoff Team Can Win (or Lose) This Weekend
Ahead of the most compelling weekend of football all season, we're offering our divisional round picks and preview with the case for and against every NFL playoff team in Round 2.
I've already broken down my NFL playoff bracket predictions for every game this postseason, but that doesn't mean there isn't a compelling case to make on the other side of each matchup this weekend. That's especially true with the Super Bowl odds down to just four teams in each conference as part of the updated NFL playoff bracket.
NFL Divisional Round picks & preview
NFL odds via our best NFL betting sites. All listed odds below courtesy of BetMGM.
| Team | Andrew Brennan | C Jackson Cowart |
|---|---|---|
| Texans (+8.5 vs. Chiefs) | ✅ | ❌ |
| Chiefs (-8.5 vs. Texans) | ❌ | ✅ |
| Commanders (+9.5 vs. Lions) | ✅ | ❌ |
| Lions (-9.5 vs. Commanders) | ❌ | ✅ |
| Rams (+6 vs. Eagles) | ❌ | ✅ |
| Eagles (-6 vs. Rams) | ✅ | ❌ |
| Ravens (-1 vs. Bills) | ❌ | ✅ |
| Bills (+1 vs. Ravens) | ✅ | ❌ |
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Texans vs. Chiefs preview
Don't miss our Texans vs. Chiefs early picks for more on this matchup.
Case for the Texans to cover the spread (+8.5)
More Joe Mixon for the Texans should spell another close finish for the Chiefs.
These teams met in Week 16, and the Chiefs won by exactly eight points at home.
C.J. Stroud didn't play especially well and the Texans mostly abandoned the run - 15 rushing attempts for running backs to 39 pass attempts - despite the game being fairly competitive from start to finish.
In the Texans' Wild Card Weekend victory, they leaned heavily on Joe Mixon. He ran the ball 25 times to Stroud's 33 pass attempts, as Houston wore down the Los Angeles Chargers' defensive front in the second half.
I think we'll see the Texans use a similar approach in the divisional round to help their second-year quarterback battle a stout Chiefs defensive unit as well as what should be a raucous crowd.
Additionally, though I acknowledge the Chiefs are a different beast in the playoffs, 11 of their 14 victories this season were by just one possession.
–– Andrew Brennan (SBR | Twitter/X)
Case for the Chiefs to cover the spread (-8.5)
A healthy and rested Kansas City off a playoff bye? Sign me up for that.
I hear you on that first matchup, but that last point for me is key: I don't expect we'll see the same Kansas City team walk onto the field on Saturday.
Didn't we already fall for this last year? The Chiefs treated the entire regular season like a dress rehearsal before flipping the switch en route to a second straight Lombardi Trophy. The difference this time around is they still managed to win 15 games along the way, and they never really felt threatened in that first win over the Texans.
With a (finally) mostly healthy roster heading into the divisional round, I'm expecting Patrick Mahomes and Co. to polish off a double-digit win after two weeks off.
–– C Jackson Cowart (SBR | Twitter/X)
Texans vs. Chiefs odds & info
Commanders vs. Lions preview
Don't miss our Commanders vs. Lions early picks for more on this matchup.
Case for the Commanders to cover the spread (+9.5)
With their star rookie QB playing at an elite level, why not the Commanders?
Jayden Daniels will soon cash his ultra-short NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, but based on the way he played against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Wild Card Weekend, he might have multiple MVP awards in his future.
Daniels put the Commanders on his back, and that game could have been a lot less close had Washington capitalized on just one of its earlier red-zone trips. He threw for 268 yards and ran for 36 of the team's 82 rushing yards despite being under constant pressure throughout the contest.
Of course, the Lions are a different proposition entirely, but with the way the rookie is playing right now, I like the Commanders to keep it competitive against any team in the NFL.
–– Andrew Brennan (SBR | Twitter/X)
Case for the Lions to cover the spread (-9.5)
Good luck slowing down the NFC's top seed at home after a week off.
The Commanders are no joke, clearly, even if their defense profiles as one of the worst units left in the playoffs. That would concern me ahead of a date with Ben Johnson and this high-powered Lions offense, which was even better than Washington's on a per-play basis and in cumulative yards and points in the regular season.
Detroit's defense has been bitten by the injury bug - surely you've heard this by now. But that has been the case nearly this entire season, and the Lions still keep finding creative ways to frustrate some of the most creative play-callers in football. There's a reason defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn looks like a potential head coach in 2025.
I have my reservations about the Lions surviving all the way to their first Lombardi Trophy, but with a week off and home-field advantage this weekend, they should take care of business and put an end to the NFL's best Cinderella story.
–– C Jackson Cowart (SBR | Twitter/X)
Commanders vs. Lions odds & info
Rams vs. Eagles preview
Don't miss our Rams vs. Eagles early picks for more on this matchup.
Case for the Rams to cover the spread (+6)
Los Angeles is peaking at the right time with a proven formula to pull the upset.
I have the Rams making a run to New Orleans in my Super Bowl predictions, so clearly I'm high on their chances of keeping this one close and ultimately winning outright.
The version of Los Angeles that we saw dismantle the Minnesota Vikings on Monday night is the same one that won nine of 11 games to close the regular season before resting its starters in Week 18. Just because the market refuses to believe in this group doesn't mean it isn't one of the most dangerous teams left in the playoffs.
The Eagles' defense presents a real challenge, but Matthew Stafford is patient enough to attack underneath with his cadre of playmakers in space, and the Rams defense has held four straight opponents to fewer than 10 points (excluding Week 18) and is coming off a nine-sack performance in Round 1. Give me that team all day long.
–– C Jackson Cowart (SBR | Twitter/X)
Case for the Eagles to cover the spread (-6)
There's upset potential, but Philly is built to bully Los Angeles in front of a raucous crowd.
If you read my Rams vs. Eagles early picks, you know that I don't just like the Rams to cover, but I think they can win outright. But when your boss tells you they want to support the Rams in a collaborative article, you allow them to do so.
There is a strong case to be made that the Eagles can not only win this game, but win in very convincing fashion. They beat the Green Bay Packers on Wild Card Weekend by 12 points despite having almost no success throwing the ball.
For my money, A.J. Brown is one of the five best wide receivers in football, and he had just one catch for 10 yards. You could argue that's because Jalen Hurts isn't very good and the Eagles went run-heavy to protect him from himself, but the dual-threat quarterback still has the ability to be a game-breaker when he's at his best.
With one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL, the runaway NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds favorite at running back, and a top-tier offensive line, this could get ugly for the Rams in a hurry in a hostile environment.
–– Andrew Brennan (SBR | Twitter/X)
Rams vs. Eagles odds & info
Ravens vs. Bills preview
Don't miss our Ravens vs. Bills early picks for more on this matchup.
Case for the Ravens to cover the spread (-1)
Baltimore looks like the best in the NFL and is equipped to survive its toughest test yet.
The Ravens don't just headline my picks this weekend - they're my pick to win it all, as this has looked like the best team in the league over the last five weeks.
Baltimore has outscored its opponents by 21.2 points per game in that stretch, and while the competition leaves something to be desired, the Ravens were easily the best team by net yards per play (1.6) and net EPA per play (0.27) across the entire season - even with some midseason struggles that feel like a distant memory now.
So does that 35-10 win over Buffalo in Week 4 that everyone seemed to have collectively retconned from their memory until this matchup became a reality. I don't love laying the points on the road between two elite teams, but the Ravens are an even bigger threat than they were in September and should leave Highmark Stadium with a win.
–– C Jackson Cowart (SBR | Twitter/X)
Case for the Bills to cover the spread (+1)
In a battle between the two NFL MVP odds favorites, there is very little separating these teams. However, in what should be a very cold - and potentially snowy - game in Buffalo, I think Josh Allen's power running could prove more valuable than Lamar Jackson's style on the ground.
Additionally, as I touched on last week, James Cook is not only one of the most underrated backs in the league but entered the postseason well-rested. The Bills leaned on him against the Denver Broncos, as he carried the ball 23 times for 120 yards. He faces a difficult matchup against a stout Ravens defensive front, but I think he has the talent to make an impact.
At the end of the day, though, I wouldn't bother betting on the Bills to cover this single point at -110. I would rather take the extra 10 cents of value and bet on them to win outright via BetMGM's +100 odds.
–– Andrew Brennan (SBR | Twitter/X)
Ravens vs. Bills odds & info
NFL Divisional Round expert picks
- NFL Divisional round odds
- NFL Divisional Round predictions
- NFL Divisional Round upset picks
- NFL Divisional Round expert picks
- NFL Divisional Round picks against the spread
- NFL Divisional Round picks & preview for every game
NFL playoff bracket: Divisional Round
Here is the updated NFL playoff bracket ahead of the divisional round.
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