NFL Conference Championships Early Picks, Predictions & Odds: Spread Picks & Player Props
Only four teams remain in the NFL playoffs, and the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs serve as the Super Bowl favorites ahead of the conference championships.
The biggest upset of the divisional round was, of course, the Washington Commanders upsetting the top-seeded Detroit Lions. Jayden Daniels and the Commanders face another stiff test in the NFC Championship Game against the Eagles. Kickoff is expected for 3 p.m. ET (FOX) from Lincoln Financial Field.
Then, it's a rematch from one of the best postseason games in NFL history, as the Buffalo Bills will march into GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium and hope to avoid heartbreak once again when they take on the Kansas City Chiefs. Sunday's second game will get underway around 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS).
We're diving into both games right away with our NFL Conference Championships early picks as part of our NFL conference championship predictions.
Early conference championship game predictions
NFL picks made Monday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Commanders vs. Eagles prediction: Eagles -5.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -108 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.92%
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I should preface this by saying I'll be rooting for the Commanders on Sunday afternoon. So, this is a mix of pessimism and a hopeful reverse jinx.
In the end, I do think the Eagles are the better team, and they can certainly win by a touchdown if they follow the same pattern from their first two postseason games: give Saquon Barkley the ball and get out of his way.
The Commanders are in a bit of a letdown spot following their massive victory against the Lions, as once again hitting the road and playing in the frigid Philadelphia weather after games in Tampa Bay and indoors could prove to be too much.
However, our Gary Pearson is backing Washington to cover with his Commanders vs. Eagles prediction.
Commanders vs. Eagles live odds:
Bills vs. Chiefs prediction: Bills +1.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -102 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.50%
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If I'm going to bet on a result for this game, my favorite play is on the Bills to win outright at +114 odds via DraftKings. However, taking the Bills to cover is likely the safest result considering the Chiefs are the Chiefs and always find a way to win in the most heartbreaking fashion for opposing fans.
Neither team was especially impressive on offense during the divisional round, getting severely outgained by their opposition. But if I have to put my faith in either unit to come alive in the AFC Championship Game, it's the Josh Allen-led Bills.
The NFL MVP odds favorite did what he needed to against the Baltimore Ravens - which wasn't much - but he can explode at any moment.
Once again, Gary Pearson is taking the opposite side, backing Kansas City to cover with his Bills vs. Chiefs early picks.
Bills vs. Chiefs live odds:
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My early conference championships player props
Commanders vs. Eagles player prop pick: Saquon Barkley Over 2.5 receptions ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +178 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 35.97%
Barkley racked up four catches in the Eagles' snowy win against the Los Angeles Rams, and with Jalen Hurts struggling to get much going through the air, it should be another busy Sunday for the running back.
The Eagles' offense is running through the likely NFL Offensive Player of the Year through two games, and I can't imagine that changes in the NFC title game.
Barkley's projection is a bit below the three receptions he would need to go Over this line, but these +178 odds still make this a nearly 25% positive expected value bet.
Bills vs. Chiefs player prop pick: Kareem Hunt Over 7.5 rushing attempts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -130 via bet365 | Implied probability: 56.52%
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From a bet based mostly on the odds to one that's projected to be much more probable.
Kareem Hunt earned more rushing opportunities than backfield mate Isiah Pacheco, and for good reason. Hunt took eight carries for 44 yards, while Pacheco managed only 18 yards on five carries.
The Chiefs will certainly continue to ride with the veteran as long as he's more efficient, and his projection supports that. He's projected to get 10.72 carries in this game.
Based on that number, we're getting a whopping 46% +EV on this bet.
My early conference championships anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Commanders vs. Eagles anytime touchdown scorer prediction: A.J. Brown anytime touchdown ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +175 via Caesars | Implied probability: 36.36%
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Brown was once again nearly invisible in the box score, managing only two catches for 14 yards. However, it wasn't for a lack of trying to get him the ball, as Hurts targeted his WR1 seven times.
Brown nearly had a massive catch down the sidelines, but he dropped it after juggling the ball a bit (perhaps due to pure rust). However, I'm backing Brown to find the end zone in the NFC title game, especially at this price.
These +175 odds carry an implied probability of just 36.36%, which makes sense considering how quiet Brown has been through two playoff games. But I'm working off his 0.47 TD projection, which is the highest among all receivers in the conference championships.
Brown had a massive game when these teams last squared off, and I'll trust the data that suggests he'll do the same on Sunday.
Bills vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Kareem Hunt anytime touchdown ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +200 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 33.33%
We're going back to the well with Hunt, and this time it's for him to find the end zone.
In fact, this is my favorite bet of the weekend, especially after Hunt scored against the Houston Texans.
Hunt has a very solid 0.50 TD projection for this showdown against a Bills team that just allowed Derrick Henry to blast it in from in close. However, Hunt's TD odds are actually longer than Pacheco's.
This prop is trading at odds as short as +155, so let's take advantage of this price.
Conference championship injuries to watch
Commanders vs. Eagles
Bills vs. Chiefs
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