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Comparing Your Team's Super Bowl Odds Against Harvard Acceptance Rate & Other Unlikely Events

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: August 30, 2024 11:49 AM EDT • 4 min 58 sec read.

New York Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner reacts to a play as we compare the probabilities of real-life events to the Super Bowl odds of various NFL teams.
New York Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner reacts to a play. Photo by Rich Barnes via USA TODAY Sports

Everyone knows how farfetched the idea of the Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers, or New England Patriots winning Super Bowl 59 is, but what you're probably unaware of is that their Super Bowl odds are only marginally higher than the chances of being born with 11 toes or fingers. 

Didn't see that one coming, did you? 

Dealing with odds and probabilities daily got me thinking about real-life events that are as likely to happen as your team winning the Super Bowl. 

For example, a 20-year-old male has a 17% chance of becoming a centenarian and living to 100 years old, the same probability of MVP odds favorite Patrick Mahomes taking the award for a third time and almost the same chances of the Kansas City Chiefs winning their third straight Super Bowl.

NFL teams' Super Bowl odds and probability of winning vary considerably across our best NFL betting sites, ranging from a minuscule 0.33% (Panthers, Patriots, Broncos) to 16.67% (Chiefs). 

With that in mind, let's see what life event might happen to you before your team lifts the Lombardi Trophy. 

Life events as likely to happen as your team winning the Super Bowl

Cowboys

  • Super Bowl odds: +1600 via bet356 | Implied probability: 5.88%
  • Life event: Becoming a victim of identity theft | Probability: 5%

It's not like any non-Dallas fan would want to steal the identity of someone from a Cowboys cohort. Still, there is a 5% chance of becoming a victim of identity theft annually, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics. 

That's just marginally lower than the 5.88% chance of the Cowboys finally ending their Super Bowl drought. 

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Panthers, Patriots, and Broncos 

  • Patriots and Panthers Super Bowl odds: +30000 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 0.33%
  • Broncos Super Bowl odds: +30000 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 0.33%
  • Life event: Born with 11 toes or fingers | Probability: 0.20%
  • Life event: Woman giving birth to twins in natural pregnancy | Probability: 0.4%

Being born with extra fingers and toes results from a medical condition known as polydactyly, which affects 1 in every 500 to 1,000 births in the United States. 

The higher 1 in every 500 limit, equating to 0.2%, is just .13% lower than the Panthers, Patriots, and Broncos' probability of winning Super Bowl 59. 

You certainly don't need 11 fingers to count how many Super Bowls the Panthers have won.

In fact, you don't need any appendages at all to count to zero.

In owner David Tepper's defense, even though his antics are usually indefensible, the Panthers have only been around since 1995. He bought the team in 2018.

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Colts

  • Colts Super Bowl odds: +7500 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 1.32%
  • Life event: Men's NCAA basketball player making the NBA | Probability: 1.2%

While I knew the chances of college basketball players turning pro were low, I had no idea they were 1.2% low. 

If the stars align this season, the Indianapolis Colts will have a higher probability of winning than that. 

For the Colts to pull off the highly improbable, Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor, Defensive Rookie of the Year odds front-runner Laiatu Latu, and Co. will have to shine as bright as one of the 60 players drafted into the NBA each year.

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Giants

  • Giants Super Bowl odds: +20000 via Caesars | Implied probability: 0.50%
  • Life event: Getting audited by the IRS | Probability: 0.45%

Law-abiding U.S. citizens who file their taxes yearly have a 0.45% chance of being audited, .05% below the Giants' chances of winning it all in February. 

There's no way the Giants are winning the Super Bowl, so it's safe to say the IRS won't come knocking any time soon.

That is unless you have ties to the mafia, like Tommy Cutlets and his agent Sean Stellato. 

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Falcons

  • Falcons Super Bowl odds: +3000 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 3.23%
  • Life event: Percentage of applicants who get accepted into Harvard | Probability 3.2%

You don't have to be a genius to figure out that the Atlanta Falcons are a markedly better football team than they were at this stage last year. 

Yet their chances of winning the Super Bowl in 2025 are the same as the 2021 acceptance rate for those who applied to get into Harvard, according to the Harvard Crimson.

It definitely puts things into perspective for those backing the Falcons to win their first Super Bowl. 

Then again, I am immeasurably more confident in my Falcons' Super Bowl bet than my chances of being accepted into Harvard. 

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Chargers

  • Chargers Super Bowl odds: +4500 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 2.17%
  • Life event: Professional bowler bowling a perfect game | Probability: 2.17%

When I first saw this stat, it made me feel like professional bowlers aren't very good at their sport; shows how much I know about bowling.  

The Los Angeles Chargers have, according to DraftKings, a 2.17% chance of bowling their version of a perfect game this season. 

Even with the arrival of the affable and prospective Chargers' savior Jim Harbaugh, those odds sound about right.

Saints, Raiders, and Vikings 

  • Saints, Raiders, and Vikings Super Bowl odds: +10000 via Caesars | Implied probability: 0.99%
  • Life event: Being ambidextrous | Probability: 1%

Maybe it would help if the Minnesota Vikings, Las Vegas Raiders, and New Orleans Saints had more ambidextrous players.

Unfortunately, the probability suggests there is only one, maybe two, ambidextrous players among the 159 individuals across all three rosters.

As the odds suggest only one or two players are ambidextrous, wouldn't it be swell if it were Gardner Minshew, Derek Carr, or Sam Darnold?

Imagine one of those three dropping back and alternating throwing arms willy-nilly, keeping the defense on their 11 toes, forever guessing. 

Surely, that would increase their Super Bowl odds.

While thought-provoking, that notion is as outrageous and preposterous as the prospect of the Panthers lifting the Lombardi Trophy in February.

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.