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Commanders vs. Lions Prediction Tonight: NFL Divisional Round Picks & Odds

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 18, 2025 5:01 PM EST • 4 min 9 sec read.

Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels throws as we offer our Commanders vs. Lions prediction tonight in the NFL Divisional Round.
Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) throws against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Photo by Nathan Ray Seebeck / Imagn Images.

The NFC's top seed faces one of the league's best surprise contenders tonight as the Detroit Lions host the Washington Commanders at 8 p.m. ET (FOX) from Ford Field.

Our Commanders vs. Lions prediction expect favorite Detroit, which held the shortest Super Bowl odds entering the NFL Divisional Round, to sustain the momentum from a pivotal Week 18 win over the Minnesota Vikings to clinch the top seed.

Commanders vs. Lions prediction: NFL Divisional Round

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Lions -9 (-120 via BetMGM) vs. Commanders ⭐⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Jayden Daniels Over 54.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Commanders vs. Lions ATS prediction

Lions to cover the spread: -9 ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -120 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 54.55%

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Detroit’s defense doesn't need to be great

Many are pointing to Detroit’s excessive injuries on defense as the reason it will not reach the Super Bowl. But with how the Lions' offense has played this season, it should be able to overcome an average defensive performance in this game.

Detroit was the highest-scoring team in the regular season and also ranked second in EPA per drive and EPA per play. 

But the Lions’ defense didn't look too shabby in a crucial Week 18 win over Minnesota, holding the Vikings to season lows in points (nine), passing yards (142), and first downs (14).

One thing we can likely count on even from an injured Lions defense is resistance in the red zone. At the end of the regular season, the Lions defense allowed a league-low 39% completion percentage in the red zone and the third-lowest QBR (28).

History is working against Daniels

Prior to Washington’s win at Tampa Bay last week, rookie quarterbacks had lost eight consecutive road playoff games. Even though Jayden Daniels snapped that streak, he is in for a much tougher test against the 15-win Lions.

Per ESPN Research, the only one of the last five rookies to beat a team with at least a share of the best record in the league was Joe Flacco in 2008. And since the playoff format changed to 14 teams in 2020-21, only one team seeded sixth or lower made the conference championship.

Teams with a bye entering the divisional round have covered just 44% of the time since 2003. Yet I am making the Lions a three-star play, as head coach Dan Campbell’s 53-29-1 ATS record (64.6%) is the best of any coach in the Super Bowl era (min. 30 games).

BetMGM is the only one of our best sports betting sites at which one can back the favorites at -9 instead of -9.5. That is worth paying up slightly for the -120 odds, which would still return a payout of $18.33 on a winning $10 wager.

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Commanders vs. Lions expert picks & predictions

Commanders vs. Lions best pick

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Jayden Daniels Over 54.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%

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The Lions have had difficulty stopping running quarterbacks all season. Detroit finished the regular season ranked 29th in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks (454), 31st in yards per rush (6.2), and tied for 27th in rushing touchdowns allowed to the position (six).

The Lions turned up the pressure against Darnold and the Vikings in Week 18, blitzing on 56% of dropbacks. If they employ that strategy against Daniels, that could work out worse for the defense, as Daniels has the third-highest QBR against blitzes and could respond to the blitz by escaping the pocket and using his legs.

Daniels has run for 66 or more yards in three of the last five games. I am taking advantage of the best number and price at bet365, as the O/U is as high as 56.5 (juice -115 to the Over) at DraftKings.

Our Phil Wood also makes the case for Daniels in his Commanders vs. Lions player prop picks for this divisional-round clash.

Commanders vs. Lions odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Commanders vs. Lions live odds

Commanders vs. Lions opening odds:

  • Commanders: +8.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
  • Lions: -8.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

Commanders vs. Lions odds movement

The Lions opened as 8.5-point favorites to win their playoff opener, but the market didn't take long to back Detroit after a first-round bye for the NFC's top seed.

The Commanders were underdogs last week, too, and still beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers outright to set up this divisional-round clash with the Lions.

Commanders vs. Lions injuries

Commanders vs. Lions game info

  • When: Saturday, Jan. 18
  • Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET 
  • Where: Ford Field (Detroit)
  • How to watch: FOX
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Lions -9 (-120 via BetMGM)

NFL Divisional Round expert picks

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”