Commanders vs. Lions Expert Picks: Player Props, Touchdown Predictions & More
The Detroit Lions return from their first-round bye to host the Washington Commanders for tonight's 8 p.m. ET divisional-round matchup at Ford Field in Detroit (FOX). The Lions are commonly 8.5-point betting favorites, and we've rounded up our Commanders vs. Lions expert picks, including picks against the spread, player props, and touchdown scorer predictions.
Washington advanced to Round 2 with a 23-20 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. The reward is another road date, this time against the NFC's No. 1 seed and the consensus favorites by the Super Bowl odds entering the divisional round.
Commanders vs. Lions expert picks: Divisional round
Odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Against the spread pick: Lions -9 (-120 via BetMGM) vs. Commanders ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 83.5 rushing yards (-109 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Touchdown scorer prediction: Austin Ekeler to score a touchdown (+240 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
Don't miss Brenden Schaeffer's Commanders vs. Lions parlay picks for a shot at a +445 payday!
Best Commanders vs. Lions picks
Lions to cover the spread: -9 ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -120 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 54.55%
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Prior to Washington’s win at Tampa Bay last week, rookie quarterbacks had lost eight consecutive road playoff games. Even though Jayden Daniels snapped that streak, he is in for a much tougher test against the 15-win Lions.
Per ESPN Research, the only one of the last five rookies to beat a team with at least a share of the best record in the league was Joe Flacco in 2008. And since the playoff format changed to 14 teams in 2020-21, only one team seeded sixth or lower made the conference championship.
Teams with a bye entering the divisional round have covered just 44% of the time since 2003. Yet I am making the Lions a three-star play, as head coach Dan Campbell’s 53-29-1 ATS record (64.6%) is the best of any coach in the Super Bowl era (min. 30 games).
BetMGM is the only one of our best sports betting sites at which one can back the favorites at -9 instead of -9.5. That is worth paying up slightly for the -120 odds, which would still return a payout of $18.33 on a winning $10 wager.
Commanders vs. Lions prediction made by Mike Spector.
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 83.5 rushing yards (-109) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -109 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.15%
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Gibbs doesn’t hit this number only if Montgomery returns and immediately receives his usual workload. But I think Montgomery will be used in a limited fashion this weekend, and Gibbs has proven that he’s more than capable of putting the run game on his back.
Gibbs rushed for at least 100 yards in each of the three games that Montgomery missed. He averaged at least 6.0 yards per carry in two of those games, and he’s about to take on a defense that allowed 137.5 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry this season.
This prop is set between 81.5 and 84.5 at our best sports betting apps. Because I’m so confident in Gibbs this week, I’m taking the best price regardless of the total. Right now, the best price is -109 at Caesars.
Commanders vs. Lions player prop picks made by Phil Wood.
Commanders anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Austin Ekeler ⭐⭐
Best odds: +240 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 29.41%
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Ekeler’s +240 anytime touchdown scorer odds are a great value in comparison to Brian Robinson Jr.’s +165 anytime touchdown odds, especially given Ekeler’s role as a pass catcher.
Robinson averaged 1.6 yards per carry on 10 carries last week. Thus, the Washington coaching staff may give Ekeler more than eight carries, especially seeing as his 12-yard run was the team’s longest against Tampa Bay.
Ekeler has scored just four total touchdowns this year, but his increase from three to eight carries last week after a five-week injury is a good sign that he is 100% healthy for this matchup.
Washington is the biggest betting underdog in the divisional round odds, so Ekeler should be on the field even more than usual if Jayden Daniels needs to throw to keep pace with Detroit’s No. 1 scoring offense. FanDuel’s +240 odds on Ekeler to score would see a $10 winning wager net $24 in profits.
Commanders vs. Lions anytime touchdown scorer predictions made by Mike Spector.
Commanders vs. Lions expert picks & predictions
- Commanders vs. Lions prediction
- Commanders vs. Lions player props
- Commanders vs. Lions parlay picks
- Commanders vs. Lions anytime touchdown scorer predictions
- Jayden Daniels player props
- Jahmyr Gibbs player props
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