Where Do Commanders Rank Among Biggest Long Shots in Super Bowl History?
There's an eternal fascination with long shots, one that Hollywood has been trying to capture since sports movies came into existence.
But this year's version of the Washington Commanders are weaving a fine narrative on their own - and making history by their Super Bowl odds as they prepare for the NFC Championship.
The Commanders had +12000 preseason odds to win the Super Bowl, which implied a roughly 0.83% chance of them winning it all. For perspective, the Philadelphia Eagles - whom Washington will face Sunday at 3 p.m. (FOX) - saw a 6.67% chance in early September.
In fact, those odds were so steep for the Commanders that Dan Quinn's group is already in rare company, and they'd continue to rewrite the record books with a win this weekend.
Commanders Super Bowl odds
Before we travel back in time a little, here are the current Super Bowl odds from our best Super Bowl betting sites.
The Commanders are still easily at the bottom of the pack, despite QB Jayden Daniels continuing to impress as the surefire NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds winner. The top three teams heading into the conference championships are clustered together with Washington's opponent narrowly leading the way.
But there's a canyon between the Eagles' implied odds (35.09%) and the Commanders' implied odds (10.53%). The same is even true between the Commanders and third-place Buffalo Bills (27.78%), who have to contend with the two-time reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship.
So oddsmakers continue to give the Commanders little chance of taking home the title, even though their Cinderella run has brought them to the NFL's final four so far.
That's reflected in the NFL conference championship odds, too, which show Washington as the 6-point underdog. By comparison, the Chiefs are only 1.5-point favorites against the Bills.
The Commanders have grown quite familiar with that underdog status. It's followed them all season, after all.
Commanders vs. Eagles odds (NFC Championship)
What were the Commanders' preseason Super Bowl odds?
Here's a look at the preseason Super Bowl odds via DraftKings to compare where the Commanders ranked among the long shots.
- Chiefs: +500
- 49ers: +600
- Ravens: +1000
- Lions: +1200
- Bengals: +1300
- Eagles: +1400
- Bills: +1600
- Texans: +1600
- Packers: +1800
- Jets: +1900
- Cowboys: +1900
- Dolphins: +2200
- Rams: +3000
- Falcons: +3000
- Bears: +3500
- Browns: +4000
- Chargers: +4500
- Steelers: +5000
- Jaguars: +5000
- Seahawks: +6500
- Colts: +7500
- Buccaneers: +8000
- Vikings: +8000
- Cardinals: +10000
- Saints: +10000
- Raiders: +10000
- Commanders: +12000
- Titans: +15000
- Giants: +20000
- Broncos: +20000
- Panthers: +25000
- Patriots: +35000
You're reading that correctly: the Commanders ranked 27th entering the year with longer odds than the lowly Las Vegas Raiders, who lost 10 straight games at one point before finishing 4-13. And they weren't far ahead of the also laughable Tennessee Titans, who tumbled to the NFL's worst record and are now looking at the NFL draft odds closely.
Some of our best NFL betting sites even listed the Commanders alongside the Titans at +15000. Washington is now just the fourth team to reach a conference championship game at that price or longer - joining the 1979 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1999 St. Louis Rams, and 2021 Cincinnati Bengals.
Even with our best sportsbooks doubting them, the Commanders immediately went about the business of making those preseason odds look astronomical in hindsight. That included the exclamation point of five straight wins to end the season while securing a wild-card spot, with one of those victories a 36-33 shootout triumph over the Eagles.
Daniels led his team on another game-winning drive in a season full of them in the wild-card round against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and his Commanders were no match for the top-seeded Detroit Lions in the divisional round.
Now they sit one step away from joining unique company.
Biggest Super Bowl long shots in NFL history
As noted in our Super Bowl betting history, there's been no shortage of long-shot champions. However, there's a clear divide between a dark horse and a half-drawn horse, which is how the Commanders were illustrated in the preseason odds.
When you think of surprising playoff runs, the 2012 Baltimore Ravens might come to mind. Perhaps you'd prefer backup quarterback heroics and the 2017 Eagles. Or maybe you'd like to go further back to when it all started for Tom Brady and the New England Patriots' dynasty in 2001.
All of those teams left us stunned. But none came with preseason odds remotely in the range of what the Commanders were receiving.
Longest preseason odds for Super Bowl champion
Here's a look at the biggest long shots to win the Super Bowl.
| Year | Team | Preseason odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1999 | Los Angeles Rams | +15000 |
| 2001 | New England Patriots | +6000 |
| 1981 | San Francisco 49ers | +5000 |
| 2017 | Philadelphia Eagles | +4000 |
| 1982 | Washington Commanders | +3500 |
| 1980 | Oakland Raiders | +3500 |
| 2007 | New York Giants | +3000 |
| 2000 | Baltimore Ravens | +2200 |
| 2012 | Baltimore Ravens | +1800 |
| 2008 | Pittsburgh Steelers | +1800 |
Entering this season, the Commanders were receiving odds equal to or only slightly shorter than the famed Greatest Show on Turf, when Kurt Warner first rose to prominence to upset the Tennessee Titans and lead St. Louis to a championship.
Washington is already one of the biggest surprises to ever reach this stage. And two more wins would put this team behind only those storied Rams in the record of long-shot winners.
Can the Commanders win the Super Bowl as a historic long shot?
Think of all the things you could have done with a single dollar before the season began. The answer is ... usually not much. Would you have rather spent it on a dollar store toy to amuse your children for 15 minutes, or on the Commanders to win it all?
They were widely listed between +12000 and +15000 to start the season, meaning a $1 wager would have resulted in a profit of between $120 and $150. And that bet is still alive right now heading into the NFC Championship Game.
The Commanders face the daunting challenge of slowing Saquon Barkley after he torched them for 296 rushing yards over two outings this season.
But a knee injury could still hamper Jalen Hurts, restricting the Eagles' ability to keep pace if the game turns into a shootout against the Commanders and their fifth-ranked offense (28.5 points per game in the regular season).
There's a realistic path to victory, despite the Commanders' status as underdogs of at least a touchdown at our NFL parlay betting sites. That's especially true after Daniels threw five touchdown passes against Philadelphia the last time these two teams squared off.
If that happens, Washington will head to the Super Bowl as one of the biggest preseason long shots in NFL history. And if you missed out before the year, you can still bet them at +850 odds via BetMGM with a winning $10 bet returning an $85 profit.
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