Commanders Super Bowl Odds & Why They'll Win: Can Daniels Deliver Lombardi to DC?
The last time the Washington Commanders won the Super Bowl, Jayden Daniels wasn't even born yet.
It's been a minute since this franchise cashed its Super Bowl odds, but the rookie quarterback has led a revival in D.C. and carried the Commanders to their first NFC Championship appearance since they hoisted the Lombardi Trophy to cap the 1991 season.
Here's a look at the Commanders Super Bowl odds and why they'll win it all ahead of Sunday's 3 p.m. ET kickoff against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Commanders Super Bowl odds
Best odds: +850 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 10.53%
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Even after stunning the top-seeded Detroit Lions - who were the Super Bowl favorites before their 45-31 loss to Washington in the NFL Divisional Round - the Commanders still haven't earned the respect of our best NFL betting sites ahead of the NFC Championship.
That comes even after beating the Eagles in their last meeting in Week 16, though that came with QB Jalen Hurts on the sidelines for most of that loss. He enters Sunday's rematch with a new injury he sustained in the divisional round but is expected to play. Gabe Henderson makes the case for the Eagles Super Bowl odds.
If the Commanders can beat their division rivals again and topple the AFC champion in the Super Bowl, a $10 bet at BetMGM would return an $85 profit in February.
Why the Commanders will win the Super Bowl
Like most of you, I did not have the Commanders reaching the NFC Championship. Heck, I don't even have them winning that game in my NFL playoff bracket predictions.
But betting on the Super Bowl is more about probability than certainty. And with our best sportsbooks giving a roughly 10% chance to one of the four finalists, I keep finding myself asking the same question that has lingered for months: why not the Commanders?
Jayden Daniels is the truth
Here's another confession: I did not believe in Daniels entering the NFL draft in April. I thought Caleb Williams was the clear-cut top choice, and I would have drafted Drake Maye with the No. 2 pick.
Then Daniels shattered my priors with a sensational rookie season that rivals any we've ever seen in NFL history. The most impressive part wasn't just his raw totals - he found success in the same way as the league's best passers, ranking fourth in QBR (70.5) and sixth in completion rate (69%) while turning it over just nine times in 17 starts.
Most importantly, he's elevated the talent around him.
Terry McLaurin has long been a WR1 hiding in plain sight; this year, he finished second in receiving TDs in the regular season (13) while scoring in seven of his last eight games. Brian Robinson enjoyed a career high in yards per carry (4.3) and touchdown runs (eight), and a 34-year-old Zach Ertz finished with 66 catches and seven red-zone scores - tied for seventh-most in the NFL.
It's all made possible because of the singular brilliance of Daniels, who trains using virtual reality to prepare for the very situations he makes look easy on a regular basis. Just watch this throw he uncorked last Saturday and tell me this isn't one of the best quarterbacks walking our planet:
Coaches ready for the moment
Daniels is the sun around which the rest of the Commanders' offense orbits. But we wouldn't see the light without his coaches putting him in position to shine.
Let's give credit where it's due for offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who has written a new chapter in his coaching story after a disastrous run in Arizona. Long renowned as an offensive guru, Kingsbury has simplified this Washington attack and made it a numbers game - one that Daniels has executed to near-perfection.
If defenses load the box, he'll sling it out wide for a 2-on-1 with blockers ready and green grass ahead. Overload the receivers and Daniels can hand it off or keep it himself, which is a terrifying sight for opposing units. And if the safeties crash down? Daniels throws one of the prettiest deep balls in the entire league, and he isn't afraid to let it fly.
That's a testament to the scheme that Kingsbury has installed in Washington and the trust he's instilled in Daniels to operate it as he sees fit. It's why the Commanders' offense ranked fourth in EPA/play (0.12) and success rate (47.7%) in the regular season.
It's less visible on the field, but the work that head coach Dan Quinn has done to revitalize this franchise can't be overstated, either. The Commaneers believed they were going to beat the Lions, even if you and I had our concerns. Who are we to doubt them at this point?
Commanders key contributors
- Jayden Daniels, QB: Daniels is one of the brightest stars in the entire league, and he's put this team on his back in the postseason. The rookie has accounted for 32% of Washington's designed rush attempts in two games - doubling his mark from the regular season - while posting an absurd 97.0 PFF grade under pressure.
- Terry McLaurin, WR: McLaurin has quietly been one of the best receivers in football since he was drafted in 2019, and he's finally showed his elite skill set with a competent QB. His 10 touchdowns in the red zone led all wideouts in the regular season, and his top-end speed has made him a lethal deep threat for Daniels in the playoffs.
- Zach Ertz, TE: Ertz's raw stats don't jump off the page (654 yards, 7 TDs) in what could be his final year, yet the former three-time Pro Bowl tight end has been money in key situations for Washington. All seven of his regular-season scores came in the red zone, where he's continued to shine in the postseason for the ultra-efficient Commanders offense.
- Bobby Wagner, LB: Washington's defense isn't loaded with household names, but Wagner has been named to 11 straight All-Pro teams and was PFF's third-highest graded linebacker in the regular season. He led the Commanders in tackles (104) and ranked fifth in pressures (28) for a unit that just needs to be servicable with Daniels leading the offense.
How the Commanders got here
- Record: 12-5 (regular season), 2-0 (postseason)
- Points per game: 28.5 PPG (fifth)
- Points against per game: 23.0 PPG (18th)
- Playoff wins: 23-20 (vs. Buccaneers), 45-31 (vs. Lions)
The Commanders faced the NFL's easiest schedule this season by some metrics, but they still rattled off 12 wins with Daniels leading four game-winning drives. They proved that late-game success wasn't a fluke with another clutch win over the Bucs in the wild-card round before blasting Detroit at Ford Field in a statement win in the divisional round.
They split their season series with the Eagles, who scored a 26-18 win in Week 11 but fell apart without Hurts in Week 16. Daniels threw five touchdowns in that game and posted the highest EPA/play by any opposing quarterback against Philly's vaunted defense.
Commanders odds vs. Eagles
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