Chiefs vs. Bills Parlay Picks & Predictions: SGP Odds
The Buffalo Bills host the Kansas City Chiefs as they look to hand the defending Super Bowl champions their first loss of the season. The two teams enter sitting among the top five in the Super Bowl odds, and the quarterbacks on either side are NFL MVP odds contenders.
The Bills are the 2-point favorites, despite the Chiefs being undefeated this season. How will this strange spread affect the best Chiefs vs. Bills parlay picks for Sunday’s game?
The Chiefs have won three consecutive contests by seven points or fewer. Every week it feels like their first loss of the season is on the horizon.
Meanwhile, the Bills have recorded 10-plus-point wins in three of their last four games. With the game being played at Highmark Stadium at 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS), perhaps a two-point spread isn’t large enough.
Chiefs vs. Bills parlay predictions
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Bills -6.5 (+191) ⭐⭐⭐
- Kareem Hunt Over 69.5 rushing yards (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Travis Kelce Over 6.5 receptions (-125) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Combined odds: +1400 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 6.67%
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SGP predictions for Chiefs vs. Bills
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Bills -6.5 (+191) ⭐⭐⭐
The Chiefs are unblemished, but it’s clear that the Bills are playing better right now.
The Chiefs needed to block a field-goal attempt as time expired last week to remain undefeated, and the game before they required overtime to beat the battered Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Though the Chiefs hold a clear advantage against the Bills’ run defense, the team's passing attack is much better than Kansas City's this season. Josh Allen has recorded more yards and touchdowns than Patrick Mahomes while also throwing five fewer interceptions.
Gabe Henderson believes Buffalo's signal-caller will do plenty through the air on Sunday in his Josh Allen player prop bets.
The Chiefs have earned a point differential of just plus-58. The Bills have produced the same margin in their last four games.
The Chiefs could keep this matchup close throughout, and they may even win. But getting the Bills to notch a 7-plus point win for nearly +200 really increases the value of this parlay, and it’s well within the realm of possibility.
Kareem Hunt Over 69.5 rushing yards (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Even if the Chiefs fall behind in this game as I expect, this is still an excellent matchup for Hunt. While the Bills are allowing 123.2 rushing yards per game (15th), they’re giving up 4.9 yards per carry, which ranks fourth-worst leaguewide. That means Hunt won’t need many carries to hit this total on Sunday.
Hunt has carried the ball 125 times in six games this season. He’s only averaging 3.6 yards per carry, but that number should go up against one of the NFL's worst run defenses. Hunt has been given at least 14 attempts in every game, and he’s topped 20 carries four times.
Finally, Hunt has registered at least 69 yards in four of his six games. He averaged fewer than 3.0 yards per carry during the two times the veteran didn't reach the mark, which is highly improbable against Buffalo's defense.
Travis Kelce Over 6.5 receptions (-125) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The final leg of our parlay is also the safest of the three picks. Kelce has caught at least eight passes in his last three games, racking up 32 catches during that span. He’s been targeted a whopping 40 times throughout that stretch, too.
How ridiculous is the latter number? Only one other Chiefs pass-catcher has been targeted 40 times all season. That player is Xavier Worthy, and he's logged just 43 targets.
More importantly, Kelce is making the most of the balls thrown his way, catching 79% of his targets this season. And finally, he gets a favorable matchup on Sunday, as the Bills have allowed 55 receptions to tight ends this season, tied for sixth-most in the NFL.
Perhaps Kelce will also be on the other end for a long pass from Patrick Mahomes to cash one of the picks in Mike Spector's Chiefs vs. Bills prediction piece.
Chiefs vs. Bills odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Chiefs vs. Bills game info
- When: Sunday, Nov. 17
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 52 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, wind 9-mph SW
- Favorite: Bills -2 (-110 via DraftKings)
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